Large and inequitable flood risks in Los Angeles, California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 31st, 2022

Flood risks in the United States have historically been underestimated, particularly with respect to human well-being and within low-wealth and marginalized communities.

Flood risks in the United States have historically been underestimated, particularly with respect to human well-being and within low-wealth and marginalized communities. Here, we characterize a fuller range of risks in Los Angeles, California, using a quantitative framework that intersects flood hazards from rainfall, streamflow and storm tides with measures of exposure and vulnerability including ethnicity, race and socioeconomic disadvantage. We find that between 197,000 and 874,000 people (median 425,000) and between US$36 billion and US$108 billion in property (median US$56 billion) are exposed to flooding greater than 30 cm within the 100-year flood zone, risk levels far above federally defined floodplains and similar to the most damaging hurricanes in US history. These risks are disproportionately higher for non-Hispanic Black and disadvantaged populations, burdening communities that may have greater challenges recovering and reinforcing socioeconomic inequities. Our framework creates opportunities for transparently and equitably reducing flood risks in urban areas.

Large-Scale Environments of Successive Atmospheric River Events Leading to Compound Precipitation Extremes in California

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | February 18th, 2022

Successive atmospheric river (AR) events—known as AR families—can result in prolonged and elevated hydrological impacts relative to single ARs due to the lack of reco

Successive atmospheric river (AR) events—known as AR families—can result in prolonged and elevated hydrological impacts relative to single ARs due to the lack of recovery time between periods of precipitation. Despite the outsized societal impacts that often stem from AR families, the large-scale environments and mechanisms associated with these compound events remain poorly understood. In this work, a new reanalysis-based 39-yr catalog of 248 AR family events affecting California between 1981 and 2019 is introduced. Nearly all (94%) of the interannual variability in AR frequency is driven by AR family versus single events. Using k-means clustering on the 500-hPa geopotential height field, six distinct clusters of large-scale patterns associated with AR families are identified. Two clusters are of particular interest due to their strong relationship with phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One of these clusters is characterized by a strong ridge in the Bering Sea and Rossby wave propagation, most frequently occurs during La Niña and neutral ENSO years, and is associated with the highest cluster-average precipitation across California. The other cluster, characterized by a zonal elongation of lower geopotential heights across the Pacific basin and an extended North Pacific jet, most frequently occurs during El Niño years and is associated with lower cluster-average precipitation across California but with a longer duration. In contrast, single AR events do not show obvious clustering of spatial patterns. This difference suggests that the potential predictability of AR families may be enhanced relative to single AR events, especially on subseasonal to seasonal time scales.

Levee Decisions and Sustainability for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | August 15th, 2010

Levee Failures in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta: Characteristics and Perspectives

Texas A&M University | December 15th, 2011

Between 1850 and 1922, agriculturalists built 1,700 kilometers of levees to convert 250,000 hectares of tidal marsh to farmland where the San Joaquin and Sacramento River

Between 1850 and 1922, agriculturalists built 1,700 kilometers of levees to convert 250,000 hectares of tidal marsh to farmland where the San Joaquin and Sacramento Rivers enter the San Francisco Bay (the Delta). Drained, farmed and isolated from the water channels, the organic soils behind the levees subsided to elevations as low as 8 meters below sea level, turning "levees" into "dams" that hold back water constantly. Engineers built water transfer projects in the mid-20th century, transferring water from the south Delta to 25 million Californians who now rely on the "dams" accidentally converted into supply channels. In 1972, however, a levee failure caused a salt-water intrusion into the Delta, raising the prominence of the polemic Peripheral Canal which, if built would replace the levees in the trans-Delta water transport role. Levee failures in 2004 (the Delta) and 2005 (New Orleans) have re-ignited the debate, fueled by comments made by public officials who warned that the Delta levees posed more risk of failure than did the pre-Katina Louisiana levees. This background motivates two research questions: What are the social perspectives regarding levee failures of the experts managing the Delta; and what is the history of levee failures that might support their perspectives? The research employed Q-Method to identify and describe four social perspectives: Delta Sustainers, Abandon the Levees, Levee Pragmatists, and Multi-Purpose Levee Advocates. A critical element underlying differences among the perspectives revolved around the perceived history of failures of Delta levees. This dissertation employed semi-structured interviews, archival record searches, and historic map and aerial photograph comparisons to compile a history of 265 levee failures since 1868, many of which are referenced to location, segment, and levee type. In addition, the dissertation compiled a list of emergency repairs and successful flood-fights. The history of failures indicates that important levees of the Delta have performed significantly better than previously identified. Sharing these social perspectives and research results among the key actors addressing Delta issues may lead to improved consensus decisions.

Little Ice Age flood events recorded in sag pond sediments in the Carrizo Plains National Monument, California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 8th, 2024

In California, severe precipitation events (SPEs) are often associated with winter season atmospheric rivers. These SPEs can generate hurricane-scale precipitation, creat

In California, severe precipitation events (SPEs) are often associated with winter season atmospheric rivers. These SPEs can generate hurricane-scale precipitation, creating a variety of natural hazards such as floods and landslides. For California, the most complete SPE-flood record yet generated is a 9000-year paleoflood reconstruction from the Santa Barbara Basin (Du et al. in Mar Geol 397:29–42, 2018). Finding terrestrial counterparts to compare to the Santa Barbara Basin is a challenge in Southern California where lake basins are rare and the terrestrial spatiotemporal signature of SPE floods remains largely unconstrained. Here, we present five 1–2 m sediment cores from a sag pond along the San Andreas Fault in the southern Carrizo Plain. The most complete record (core CLPC21-4) was selected for a variety of chronological, sedimentological, and biological analyses. Principal Component Analysis on these data reveals two end member sediment unit types: event versus ambient sedimentation. We focus on the two thickest sediment units likely generated by SPEs. These two units (EU 1 and EU 2) are especially distinct within CLPC21-4, characterized by erosive bases, above average sand content, normal grading, low magnetic susceptibility, and low total organic matter. Moreover, they are visually apparent across all five cores within the sag pond and thin from source to sink. Age control for the two units is constrained by AMS 14C dates on discrete organic materials and supported by the identification of Erodium’s first appearance ca. 1750–1765 CE in the Santa Barbara region. Using these age constraints, we infer the maximum limiting age range for Event Unit 1 from 1470 to 1640 CE and Event Unit 2 from 1740 to 1800 CE. Within the limits of dating, site-specific proxy sensitivities, and inherent meteorological heterogeneity, we propose a probable correlation to Santa Barbara Basin flood events at 1525 CE and 1760 CE. Our results suggest that sag ponds may represent a viable and untapped paleoclimatic archive for California. Future work will focus on a latitudinal series of sag ponds to determine the spatiotemporal sequence and correlativity of SPEs in the sediment record.

Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project Draft Environmental Impact Statement

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | July 26th, 2024

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) prepared this Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the 2021 Endangered Species Act Reinitiation of Section 7 Consultation on t

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) prepared this Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the 2021 Endangered Species Act Reinitiation of Section 7 Consultation on the Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP). This EIS is meant to inform the public and decision-makers on potential federal actions by examining a range of reasonable alternatives and the potential effect on the environment. Reclamation manages the Central Valley Project (CVP). The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) manages the State Water Project (SWP). Collectively, the operation of the CVP and SWP provides flood control and navigation, delivers water to 30 million people, supports 4 million acres of agriculture, maintains 19 wildlife refuges on the Pacific Flyway, protects numerous iconic and endemic species such as Chinook salmon, coho salmon, steelhead, sturgeon, and smelt, generates 4.5 million megawatt hours of electricity, maintains water quality for beneficial uses in the California Bay-Delta, and supports recreation throughout Northern California. This summary provides a succinct overview of the development of alternatives in coordination with other agencies and the public, major conclusions for key environmental resource areas, the identification of avoidance and mitigation measures to address potential impacts, and issues that have been in dispute as raised by the public and other interested parties. This summary provides the material required by the Council on Environmental Quality’s National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Implementing Regulations regarding the contents of an EIS summary. Click here to read Maven's Notebook background article to the new DEIS.

Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study: Plan of Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | February 28th, 2013

Imported water supplies to Los Angeles County, California, are uncertain due to periodic droughts in northern California and the Colorado River Basin, court decisions r

Imported water supplies to Los Angeles County, California, are uncertain due to periodic droughts in northern California and the Colorado River Basin, court decisions related to endangered species in the Bay Delta, and potential allocations of Colorado River water. Changing demographics, climate variability, and the competing interest for available water present additional long-term risks to the stability and reliability of imported water. Accordingly, various Los Angeles area agencies with water management authority, such as the Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD), are actively pursuing a strategy aimed at achieving water independence by developing local water resources such as stormwater. The LACFCD is the primary agency for conducting groundwater replenishment operations in Los Angeles County. In typical years, the LACFCD infiltrates more than 270,000 acre-feet of captured stormwater, imported water, and recycled water into the various groundwater basins in Los Angeles County. In wetter years, that number can exceed 700,000 acre-feet and, in drier years, may be little more than 150,000 acre-feet. LACFCD partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation’s (Reclamation) Southern California Area Office to study long-term flood control and water conservation impacts from projected population and climate conditions. The Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study (Basin Study) will recommend potential changes to the operation of stormwater capture systems, modifications to existing facilities, and development of new facilities that could help resolve future flood control and water supply issues. The Los Angeles River, San Gabriel River, Ballona Creek, South Santa Monica Bay, North Santa Monica Bay, and Dominguez Channel/Los Angeles Harbor watersheds (Watersheds) are the focus of this Basin Study (figure 1). This study incorporates the entire watershed boundaries, including where they extend outside Los Angeles County. The Watersheds share attributes such as overlapping municipal and water agency boundaries, an interconnected flood control system, and a common planning purpose with major ongoing planning efforts like the Greater Los Angeles County Integrated Regional Water Management Plan (IRWMP), Gateway IRWMP and the Metropolitan Water District Integrated Resources Plan. Related links: Los Angeles Basin Study Summary Report Task 2: Water Supply and Demand Analysis Click here for Reclamation's index of inter-related LA Basin Study reports and appendices.

Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study: Task 4 Existing Infrastructure Response & Operations Guidelines Analysis

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | September 1st, 2014

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on the Los A

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on the Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study (LA Basin Study). The purpose of the LA Basin Study is to investigate long-range water conservation and flood risk impacts caused by projected changes in climate conditions and population in the Los Angeles region. The LA Basin Study will recommend potential modifications or changes in the operation of the existing stormwater capture systems as well as the development of new facilities that could help resolve future water supply and flood risk issues. These recommendations will be developed by identifying alternatives and conducting trade-off analyses.  For Task 4, Existing Infrastructure Response and Operations Guidelines Analysis of the LA Basin Study, Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the LACFCD jointly analyzed the major components of the water conservation and flood risk mitigation system. For the analysis, Reclamation assessed the 14 major LACFCD dams and reservoirs, USACE analyzed their 4 major flood control dams in the region, and LACFCD assessed the 26 major spreading grounds interconnected to the water conservation system. The LACFCD also evaluated 5 major channel outlets. This report summarizes the data, methods, and results of the existing infrastructure response to the historic climate and future projections.  The purpose of Task 4 is to assess the response of existing infrastructure and analyze the operation guidelines under both the current and future climate conditions. It is important to recognize that this effort relies upon the existing configuration of the water conservation and flood risk mitigation network as the baseline condition.  This evaluation includes a ranking assessment of the current and future stormwater volumes conserved or discharged, and other impacts to the water conservation and flood risk mitigation system. The following sub-tasks were identified to conduct this assessment:  Response to Current Climate (Water Year 1987 through 2000)  Analyze stormwater volumes conserved or discharged Analyze infrastructure response and operations guidelines  Response to Future Climate (Water Year 2012 through 2095) Analyze stormwater volumes conserved or discharged Analyze infrastructure response and operations guidelines The response to the current climate provided a representation of the existing situation and revealed how the existing infrastructure could reasonably be expected to perform under a historical climate to which the region has become accustomed. However, this may not be the case in the future. The response to future climate assessed the existing infrastructure under varying climate conditions to understand if it would function satisfactorily. This analysis of the existing infrastructure served as a status quo assessment of historical conditions as well as a “no action” evaluation of the future.  After the analysis of the historic and future climate conditions, an assessment was conducted for the system of dams and spreading ground facilities. A water conservation ranking—or performance level—was developed to assess the overall efficiency and resilience of the facilities to both the historic and projected future climate. Although results are assigned to the individual 18 dams/reservoirs and 26 spreading grounds, each facility was analyzed within the entire system. The dams and spreading grounds were ranked according to their performance with respect to one another; these rankings were used to develop the Task 4 performance levels.  Generally, facilities that were the least efficient resulted in being the least resilient to climate change and were assigned Performance Level III which has a high potential for enhancements. Facilities that were generally more efficient were more resilient to climate change and were assigned Performance Level II. Finally, facilities that were the most efficient tended to be the most resilient to climate change and were assigned to Performance Level I.  For the channel outlet analysis, assessment levels were developed to determine which of the five major channel outlets have the highest potential for increasing stormwater capture and reducing runoff to the Pacific Ocean. The ability to reduce the stormwater runoff that is lost to the ocean and capture it would greatly boost the potential stormwater supply in this region. The Task 4 analysis assigned assessment levels to the 5 major channel outlets and their respective watersheds.  The Los Angeles River ranked into Assessment Level III indicating that this watershed has the greatest potential for increasing stormwater supplies and should be targeted for future enhancements. For the remaining outlets, although these locations were found to have lower discharge volumes, additional capture efforts should still be targeted within these watersheds to further increase stormwater capture and improve local water supplies. 

Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study: Task 5 Infrastructure & Operations Concepts Report

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | December 1st, 2015

The Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study (LA Basin Study) is a collaborative partnership between the Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) and the

The Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study (LA Basin Study) is a collaborative partnership between the Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) and the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation). The purpose of the LA Basin Study is to investigate long-range water conservation and flood risk management impacts caused by projected changes in the climate and population in the Los Angeles region. The LA Basin Study provides recommendations for potential modifications and changes to the existing regional stormwater capture system, as well as for the development of new facilities and practices, which could help to resolve future water supply and flood risk management issues. The stormwater capture concepts and alternatives developed within this report will inform the Task 6 – Trade-Off Analysis & Opportunities report of the LA Basin Study.  The objective of Task 5, Infrastructure and Operations Concepts, is to identify and develop both structural and nonstructural (i.e., plans and policies) concepts to manage stormwater under projected climate conditions for the Los Angeles Basin watersheds, which include: Los Angeles River, San Gabriel River, South Santa Monica Bay, North Santa Monica Bay, Ballona Creek, Malibu Creek, and Dominguez Channel/Los Angeles Harbor watersheds (Basin Study Watersheds). The efforts and results previously completed for Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections, Task 3 – Downscaled Climate Change & Hydrologic Modeling, and Task 4 – Existing Infrastructure Response & Operations Guidelines Analysis serve as the foundation for Task 5. The major tasks and subtasks of Task 5 include:  Concept Development  - Identify a range of opportunities and options using stakeholder input  - Determine preliminary concepts for further evaluation  Technical Analysis of Concepts  - Assess structural and nonstructural concepts pertaining to dams, spreading grounds, flood control channels, decentralized storage, infiltration, reuse facilities, debris basins, and other concepts  - Develop and apply concept selection criteria  Appraisal-Level Analysis  - Evaluate selected concepts for future system reliability, efficiency, and effectiveness  In addition to any new stormwater conservation concepts that are developed, the existing facilities from the Task 4 analysis were considered for enhancement. The Watershed Management Modeling System (WMMS), which has served as the primary hydrologic model throughout the LA Basin Study, continued to be the preferred tool and was also used for Task 5. Hydrologic simulations were conducted to analyze the potential water conservation and flood risk mitigation benefit for the various project concepts. For the future period, water years 2012 through 2095, four climate projections (Low 1, Low 2, Mid 2, and High 1) from Task 4 were used in the simulations.  Click here for USBR's Task 5 Appendices index: Appendix A - Infrastructure and Operations Concepts (Excel) Appendix B - Local Stormwater Capture (PDF)  Appendix C - Modeling Approach and Solutions (PDF) Appendix D - Local Management Cost (Excel) Appendix D - Regional 1 Cost (Excel) Appendix D - Regional 2 Cost (Excel) Appendix D - Regional 3 Cost (Excel) Appendix D - Storage 3 Cost (Excel) Appendix E - LACFCD Dam Hydrology and Cost Estimates (PDF)

Los Angeles Basin Study Summary Report

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | November 1st, 2016

Changing demographics, climate change, and competing interests for available water supplies all present long-term risks to the stability and reliability of the region’s

Changing demographics, climate change, and competing interests for available water supplies all present long-term risks to the stability and reliability of the region’s imported water.  The region recognizes that today’s challenges require an integrated water resources management approach. For decades, this region has operated and maintained one of the most effective flood control systems in the world that protects millions of people from the impacts of flooding in the region. This system sends much of the stormwater runoff into the ocean, water that historically recharged local groundwater basins, making this region even more dependent on imported water supplies. As regulatory pressure to clean up polluted stormwater runoff continues and imported water resources diminish, this local source of water supply is becoming more and more attractive (GLAC IRWMP 2014). Many of the region’s water management agencies have studied and planned for increasing use of local recycled and graywater supplies, ocean and brackish desalination, developing more groundwater, and implementing improved water conservation initiatives to extend existing supplies. Additionally, social trends and concerns also drive the emphasis on the use of local water supplies. However, the one major local resource that has not been studied in-depth is stormwater and its opportunities to optimize the reliability of local supplies. To enhance the capabilities of the existing stormwater conservation infrastructure within the Los Angeles Basin, the LACFCD began to investigate long-term projected needs and future climate conditions within the region. Given that local groundwater plays such a vital role in the region’s water supply portfolio, detailed scientific, engineering, and economic analyses were conducted to identify strategies for enhancing stormwater capture for groundwater recharge. The LA Basin Study examined the region’s water supplies and demand, and impacts from projected population growth and changing climate in the watersheds of the Los Angeles region. The objectives of the study were to: • Use state-of-the-art climate change analysis to develop projections of future water supply and demands in the Basin. • Analyze how the Basin’s existing water infrastructure and its operations will perform in the face of changing water realities. • Develop and highlight opportunities to adapt to current and future water demands. • Conduct a trade-off analysis of identified opportunities. Concepts ranged from enhancing the existing stormwater capture system and modifying existing facilities (including those capturing runoff for groundwater recharge), to developing new structural and nonstructural concepts that could help resolve future water supply and flood risk issues. This Summary Report presents highlights of the critical tasks associated with this Basin Study and the results and findings produced throughout this collaborative study effort. Full study chapters and appendices: Plan of Study Fact Sheet Task 2: Water Supply and Demand Task 3: Climate Change Analysis Task 3.1: Development of Climate-Adjusted Hydrologic Model Inputs Task 3.1:  Climate Change and Hydrologic Projections Appendices Task 3.2:  Hydrologic Modeling Report Task 3.2: Annual Hydrologic Results Workbook Task 4: Existing Infrastructure Response & Operations Guidelines Analysis Final Report Task 5: Task 5 - Infrastructure & Operations Concept Analysis Final Report Task 6: Trade-off Analysis Final Report Click here for Reclamation's full index  including public outreach and webinars