Global Application of the Atmospheric River Scale

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 18th, 2023

Global Assessment of Atmospheric River Prediction Skill

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | February 16th, 2018

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that transport water vapor horizontally and are associated with hydrological extremes. In this study, the Atmospheri

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that transport water vapor horizontally and are associated with hydrological extremes. In this study, the Atmospheric River Skill (ATRISK) algorithm is introduced, which quantifies AR prediction skill in an object-based framework using Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Project global hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. The dependence of AR forecast skill is globally characterized by season, lead time, and distance between observed and forecasted ARs. Mean values of daily AR prediction skill saturate around 7–10 days, and seasonal variations are highest over the Northern Hemispheric ocean basins, where AR prediction skill increases by 15%–20% at a 7-day lead during boreal winter relative to boreal summer. AR hit and false alarm rates are explicitly considered using relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves. This analysis reveals that AR forecast utility increases at 10-day lead over the North Pacific/western U.S. region during positive El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and at 7- and 10-day leads over the North Atlantic/U.K. region during negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) conditions and decreases at a 10-day lead over the North Pacific/ western U.S. region during negative Pacific–North America (PNA) teleconnection conditions. Exceptionally large increases in AR forecast utility are found over the North Pacific/western United States at a 10-day lead during El Niño 1 positive PNA conditions and over the North Atlantic/United Kingdom at a 7-day lead during La Niña 1 negative PNA conditions. These results represent the first global assessment of AR prediction skill and highlight climate variability conditions that modulate regional AR forecast skill.

Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Publisher not available | October 16th, 2025

Increasing ENSO amplitude and teleconnection patterns imply that remote extratropical precipitation responses, such as in Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula (F

Increasing ENSO amplitude and teleconnection patterns imply that remote extratropical precipitation responses, such as in Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula (Fig. 5), will also become stronger between alternating El Niño and La Niña events. Even though the recurrence of these events may become more predictable due to the increased regularity/periodicity and amplitude (Fig. 1)44, future ENSO teleconnections might generate enhanced whiplash effects on hydroclimate, which requires additional planning and management strategies to minimize the costs of climate damage. While similar increases in ENSO regularity and amplitude can be found in some CMIP6 model projections (Fig. 2), future work needs to assess the detailed dynamics across these models and assess the likelihood of the ENSO regime changes seen in AWI-CM3.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current‐climate cutoff scale

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | February 7th, 2017

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 23rd, 2025

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | February 22nd, 2022

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addres

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency Bulletin 17C

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 1st, 2019

Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 1st, 2014

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, a

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, and local flood management agencies have worked for decades to reduce the risk and consequences of flooding in the State. The people of California have shown that they understand the increasing flood risk due to population growth, environmental concerns, climate change, and land use practices, and they are willing to invest in flood risk management projects. This requires the public agencies responsible for California’s flood risk management to demonstrate the value of those investments both before and after they are implemented. This Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments (HAV) supports that effort.

Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 8th, 2014

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, and local

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, and local flood management agencies have worked for decades to reduce the risk and consequences of flooding in the State. The people of California have shown that they understand the increasing flood risk due to population growth, environmental concerns, climate change, and land use practices, and they are willing to invest in flood risk management projects. This requires the public agencies responsible for California’s flood risk management to demonstrate the value of those investments both before and after they are implemented. This Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments (HAV) supports that effort. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) has identified foundational goals that shape the State’s water management investment strategy. Those goals are: Improving public safety Fostering environmental stewardship Supporting economic stability

HEC-HMS Models for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins Comprehensive Study

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | August 1st, 2001

Due to several large and damaging flood events on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers (California) during the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. House of Representatives

Due to several large and damaging flood events on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers (California) during the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. House of Representatives directed the Sacramento District to develop comprehensive plans for flood control for the two rivers and to develop hydrologic and hydraulic models of the river systems. The models will be used to provide better forecasts and evaluations of flood damage reduction alternatives. Additionally, the model results will be used as input for reservoir simulation models. The Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River/Tulare Lake Bed Basins comprise nearly 60,000 square miles, drain California’s Central Valley floor and receive much of their runoff from the Sierra Nevada mountain range. Developing hydrologic models for the tributary basins (which included extremely variable terrain) within a ten month time period was a formidable task. The District contacted the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) to assist with the development of these models. HEC used the Hydrologic Modeling System program, HEC-HMS, and introduced the HEC-GeoHMS grid-based technology to perform the hydrologic study. GeoHMS is an ArcView® extension that provides automated subbasin delineation methods and calculates many physical characteristics used for estimation of hydrologic parameters. HEC developed and calibrated 33 individual HEC-HMS models for the major tributaries and portions of the valley floors of the Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River / Tulare Lake Bed Basins. GeoHMS was used to delineate the individual river basins, perform initial subbasin delineation and develop the physical characteristics for the subbasins. Tools within GeoHMS allowed the modelers to iteratively redelineate their subbasins, as appropriate, to meet project needs. Keeping the modeling effort consistent was critical to the success of the study. To ensure this consistency of procedures and results, HEC developed modeling guidelines that each of the 11 modeling teams followed. Once the grid-based HEC-HMS models were developed, HEC contracted with the Corps’ Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) to perform a snowmelt study for the watersheds. HEC provided a gridded precipitation file (4 km2) to CRREL. Through the use of their Distributed Snow Process Model (DSPM), CRREL then provided a gridded snowmelt/ precipitation file to HEC. DSPM computes snowmelt and rainfall depths at the soil surface on a grid-cell basis. This data is used directly by HEC-HMS as precipitation on the watershed. The ModClark rainfall to runoff transformation was used to compute the subbasin hydrographs. HEC-HMS parameter optimization models were developed at hourly flow gages for the unregulated headwater streams. The runoff parameter optimization models allowed the modelers to develop the runoff parameters necessary for the regression analysis. A number of physical characteristics were evaluated for correlation with variations in Clark’s time of concentration, TC, for the optimization models. The results of the regression analysis allowed the modelers to populate the ungaged subbasins with appropriate unit hydrograph parameters. Approximately 200 hourly flow gages and 83 reservoirs were considered in calibrating the models. The 33 individual basin models were then given to the Sacramento District.