Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current‐climate cutoff scale

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | February 7th, 2017

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 23rd, 2025

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | February 22nd, 2022

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addres

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency Bulletin 17C

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 1st, 2019

Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 1st, 2014

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, a

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, and local flood management agencies have worked for decades to reduce the risk and consequences of flooding in the State. The people of California have shown that they understand the increasing flood risk due to population growth, environmental concerns, climate change, and land use practices, and they are willing to invest in flood risk management projects. This requires the public agencies responsible for California’s flood risk management to demonstrate the value of those investments both before and after they are implemented. This Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments (HAV) supports that effort.

Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 8th, 2014

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, and local

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, and local flood management agencies have worked for decades to reduce the risk and consequences of flooding in the State. The people of California have shown that they understand the increasing flood risk due to population growth, environmental concerns, climate change, and land use practices, and they are willing to invest in flood risk management projects. This requires the public agencies responsible for California’s flood risk management to demonstrate the value of those investments both before and after they are implemented. This Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments (HAV) supports that effort. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) has identified foundational goals that shape the State’s water management investment strategy. Those goals are: Improving public safety Fostering environmental stewardship Supporting economic stability

HEC-HMS Models for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins Comprehensive Study

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | August 1st, 2001

Due to several large and damaging flood events on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers (California) during the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. House of Representatives

Due to several large and damaging flood events on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers (California) during the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. House of Representatives directed the Sacramento District to develop comprehensive plans for flood control for the two rivers and to develop hydrologic and hydraulic models of the river systems. The models will be used to provide better forecasts and evaluations of flood damage reduction alternatives. Additionally, the model results will be used as input for reservoir simulation models. The Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River/Tulare Lake Bed Basins comprise nearly 60,000 square miles, drain California’s Central Valley floor and receive much of their runoff from the Sierra Nevada mountain range. Developing hydrologic models for the tributary basins (which included extremely variable terrain) within a ten month time period was a formidable task. The District contacted the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) to assist with the development of these models. HEC used the Hydrologic Modeling System program, HEC-HMS, and introduced the HEC-GeoHMS grid-based technology to perform the hydrologic study. GeoHMS is an ArcView® extension that provides automated subbasin delineation methods and calculates many physical characteristics used for estimation of hydrologic parameters. HEC developed and calibrated 33 individual HEC-HMS models for the major tributaries and portions of the valley floors of the Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River / Tulare Lake Bed Basins. GeoHMS was used to delineate the individual river basins, perform initial subbasin delineation and develop the physical characteristics for the subbasins. Tools within GeoHMS allowed the modelers to iteratively redelineate their subbasins, as appropriate, to meet project needs. Keeping the modeling effort consistent was critical to the success of the study. To ensure this consistency of procedures and results, HEC developed modeling guidelines that each of the 11 modeling teams followed. Once the grid-based HEC-HMS models were developed, HEC contracted with the Corps’ Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) to perform a snowmelt study for the watersheds. HEC provided a gridded precipitation file (4 km2) to CRREL. Through the use of their Distributed Snow Process Model (DSPM), CRREL then provided a gridded snowmelt/ precipitation file to HEC. DSPM computes snowmelt and rainfall depths at the soil surface on a grid-cell basis. This data is used directly by HEC-HMS as precipitation on the watershed. The ModClark rainfall to runoff transformation was used to compute the subbasin hydrographs. HEC-HMS parameter optimization models were developed at hourly flow gages for the unregulated headwater streams. The runoff parameter optimization models allowed the modelers to develop the runoff parameters necessary for the regression analysis. A number of physical characteristics were evaluated for correlation with variations in Clark’s time of concentration, TC, for the optimization models. The results of the regression analysis allowed the modelers to populate the ungaged subbasins with appropriate unit hydrograph parameters. Approximately 200 hourly flow gages and 83 reservoirs were considered in calibrating the models. The 33 individual basin models were then given to the Sacramento District.

Heresy in ENSO teleconnections: Atmospheric rivers as disruptors of canonical seasonal precipitation anomalies in the Southwestern US

Springer Nature | February 7th, 2025

In spite of forecasts for anomalous dryness based on the canonical La Niña signal, Water Years 2011, 2017, and 2023 brought copious precipitation to California and the S

In spite of forecasts for anomalous dryness based on the canonical La Niña signal, Water Years 2011, 2017, and 2023 brought copious precipitation to California and the Southwestern United States (SWUS). Although El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main source of seasonal precipitation predictability for the region, outstanding Atmospheric River (AR) activity produced the unexpected regional wetness in each of these heretical water years (WYs). We define heretical WYs as those that result in precipitation anomalies that oppose those expected based on ENSO canon. We assess the contribution of ARs and other storms to these WYs, finding that heretical La Niña/El Niño WYs were characterized by anomalously robust/deficient AR activity. In California, precipitation accumulation during the heretical La Niña WYs was comparable to or even exceeded that observed during the exceedingly wet WY1998—the textbook canonical El Niño year. Our findings indicate a weaker/stronger relationship between ENSO and AR/non-AR precipitation, primarily driven by storm frequency. Although ARs can disrupt the ENSO-precipitation signal, ENSO still influences the frequency of AR precipitation in the southwestern U.S. desert, the region influenced by ARs that make landfall in Baja California, Mexico. These results highlight the complexity of ENSO's impact on precipitation in the Western US and underscore the need for a nuanced understanding of ENSO’s influence on ARs to improve seasonal precipitation prediction.

Highlights Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2022 Update

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 23rd, 2023

The 2022 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update was adopted by the Central Valley Flood Protection Board on December 16th, 2022. Just days later, beginning on Decemb

The 2022 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update was adopted by the Central Valley Flood Protection Board on December 16th, 2022. Just days later, beginning on December 27th, 2022, a series of atmospheric rivers began to impact California. This succession of atmospheric rivers resulted in 34 trillion gallons of water falling across California in 24 days, and 21 forecast points in the Central Valley reaching flood or monitor stage. Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on January 4th, 2023; federal emergency and disaster declarations followed soon thereafter. These events underscore the importance of the CVFPP as the State’s strategic blueprint for investment in flood risk reduction in the Central Valley, especially in an era of whiplash weather—from drought to flooding— driven by the impacts of climate change.

Hillslope Stability and Land Use

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 1st, 1985

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Resources Monograph Series, Volume 11. This monograph compiles research findings on soil mass movement

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Resources Monograph Series, Volume 11. This monograph compiles research findings on soil mass movement into a format usable by practitioners and students. Applications are stressed in the areas of extensive and management practices rather than engineering earthworks. Examples are included to illustrate various prediction, avoidance, and control measures used in managing unstable terrain. We use the term soil (i.e., soil mass movement) to mean the mantle of unconsolidated or poorly consolidated material of either residual or transported origin, that overlies bedrock and forms the surface of the land. This usage is consistent with the conventional civil engineering use of the word and is synonymous with the geological term regolith and with soil mantle.