Flood-Hazard Study -- 100-Year Flood Stage for Apple Valley Dry Lake, San Bernardino County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | June 30th, 1975

A study of the flood hydrology of Apple Valley, Calif., was undertaken to develop the 100—year flood stage for Apple Valley dry lake. Synthetic hydrologic techniques we

A study of the flood hydrology of Apple Valley, Calif., was undertaken to develop the 100—year flood stage for Apple Valley dry lake. Synthetic hydrologic techniques were used because no adequate hydrologic or meteorologic data were available for the basin. The 100—year flood stage was estimated to be at an elevation of 2,909.0 feet (886.7 metres) above mean sea level.

Flood-MAR Research and Data Development Plan

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 31st, 2019

The Research Advisory Committee (RAC) is pleased to make this plan available to the growing network of farmers, researchers, planners, and water and land managers who wan

The Research Advisory Committee (RAC) is pleased to make this plan available to the growing network of farmers, researchers, planners, and water and land managers who want to expand our collective knowledge about using floodwaters for managed aquifer recharge (Flood-MAR). This plan outlines the priority information needed by those making management decisions about the where, when, and how of capturing available flood water to replenish California’s depleted aquifers.

Flood-Risk Reduction and Resilience: Federal Assistance and Programs

Congressional Research Service (CRS) | November 15th, 2017

Recent flood disasters have raised congressional and public interest in not only reducing flood risks, but also improving flood resilience, which is the ability to adapt

Recent flood disasters have raised congressional and public interest in not only reducing flood risks, but also improving flood resilience, which is the ability to adapt to, withstand, and rapidly recover from floods. In the United States, flood-related responsibilities are shared. States and local governments have significant discretion in land-use and development decisions, which can be major factors in determining the vulnerability to and consequence of hurricanes, storms, extreme rainfall, and other flood events. Congress has established various federal programs that may be available to assist U.S. state, local, and territorial entities and tribes in reducing flood risks. Among the most significant federal activities to reduce communities’ flood risks and improve flood resilience are: assistance with infrastructure projects (e.g., levees, shore protection) and other flood mitigation activities that save lives and reduce property damage; and mitigation incentives for communities that participate in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This report provides an overview of these assistance programs and the NFIP-related mitigation incentives; it also raises flood-related policy considerations associated with federal programs and practices.

Floodplain farm fields provide novel rearing habitat for Chinook salmon

PLOS | June 7th, 2016

When inundated by floodwaters, river floodplains provide critical habitat for many species of fish and wildlife, but many river valleys have been extensively leveed and f

When inundated by floodwaters, river floodplains provide critical habitat for many species of fish and wildlife, but many river valleys have been extensively leveed and floodplain wetlands drained for flood control and agriculture. In the Central Valley of California, USA, where less than 5% of floodplain wetland habitats remain, a critical conservation question is how can farmland occupying the historical floodplains be better managed to improve benefits for native fish and wildlife. In this study fields on the Sacramento River floodplain were intentionally flooded after the autumn rice harvest to determine if they could provide shallow-water rearing habitat for Sacramento River fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Approximately 10,000 juvenile fish (ca. 48 mm, 1.1 g) were reared on two hectares for six weeks (Feb-March) between the fall harvest and spring planting. A subsample of the fish were uniquely tagged to allow tracking of individual growth rates (average 0.76 mm/day) which were among the highest recorded in fresh water in California. Zooplankton sampled from the water column of the fields were compared to fish stomach contents. The primary prey was zooplankton in the order Cladocera, commonly called water fleas. The compatibility, on the same farm fields, of summer crop production and native fish habitat during winter demonstrates that land management combining agriculture with conservation ecology may benefit recovery of native fish species, such as endangered Chinook salmon.

Framing the Problem of Flood Risk and Flood Management in Metropolitan Los Angeles

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | January 1st, 2023

This paper develops the concept of flood problem framing to understand decision-makers’ priorities in flood risk management in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region in Ca

This paper develops the concept of flood problem framing to understand decision-makers’ priorities in flood risk management in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region in California (LA Metro). Problem frames shape an individual’s preferences for particular management strategies and their future behaviors. While flooding is a complex, multifaceted problem, with multiple causes and multiple impacts, a decision-maker is most likely to manage only those dimensions of flooding about which they are aware or concerned. To evaluate flood decision-makers’ primary concerns related to flood exposure, vulnerability, and management in the LA Metro, we draw on focus groups with flood control districts, city planners, nonprofit organizations, and other flood-related decision-makers. We identify numerous concerns, including concerns about specific types of floods (e.g., fluvial vs pluvial) and impacts to diverse infrastructure and communities. Our analyses demonstrate that flood concerns aggregate into three problem frames: one concerned with large fluvial floods exacerbated by climate change and their housing, economic, and infrastructure impacts; one concerned with pluvial nuisance flooding, pollution, and historic underinvestment in communities; and one concerned with coastal and fluvial flooding’s ecosystem impacts. While each individual typically articulated concerns that overlapped with only one problem frame, each problem frame was discussed by numerous organization types, suggesting low barriers to cross-organizational coordination in flood planning and response. This paper also advances our understanding of flood risk perception in a region that does not face frequent large floods.

From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | December 18th, 2014

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) has driven large increases in annual water level exceedances (duration and frequency) above minor (nuisance level) coastal flooding elevat

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) has driven large increases in annual water level exceedances (duration and frequency) above minor (nuisance level) coastal flooding elevation thresholds established by the National Weather Service (NWS) at U.S. tide gauges over the last half-century. For threshold levels below 0.5 m above high tide, the rates of annual exceedances are accelerating along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, primarily from evolution of tidal water level distributions to higher elevations impinging on the flood threshold. These accelerations are quantified in terms of the local RSLR rate and tidal range through multiple regression analysis. Along the U.S. West Coast, annual exceedance rates are linearly increasing, complicated by sharp punctuations in RSLR anomalies during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, and we account for annual exceedance variability along the U.S. West and East Coasts from ENSO forcing. Projections of annual exceedances above local NWS nuisance levels at U.S. tide gauges are estimated by shifting probability estimates of daily maximum water levels over a contemporary 5-year period following probabilistic RSLR projections of Koppet al.(2014) for representative concentration pathways(RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We suggest a tipping point for coastal inundation (30 days/per year with a threshold exceedance) based on the evolution of exceedance probabilities. Under forcing associated with the local-median projections of RSLR, the majority of locations surpass the tipping point over the next several decades regardless of specific RCP.

Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High-Resolution Global Warming Experiment

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 14th, 2023

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow weather features often referred to as “rivers in the sky.” They often transport water from lower latitudes to higher lati

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow weather features often referred to as “rivers in the sky.” They often transport water from lower latitudes to higher latitudes typically across climate zones and produce precipitation necessary for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is challenging because of the variety of ways an AR can be defined on gridded data sets. Unlike weather features such as tropical cyclones where identification methodologies are similar, algorithms that determine the characteristics of ARs vary depending on the science question posed. Because there is no real consensus on AR identification methodology, we aim to quantify the algorithmic uncertainty in AR metrics and precipitation. We compare 16 different ways of defining an AR on gridded data sets and present the range of possibilities in which an AR could change under global warming. Generally, ARs are projected to increase but the amount of that increase is a function of the algorithm. Across all algorithms and focus regions, AR precipitation is projected to become more extreme.

Future Changes in Global Atmospheric Rivers Projected by CMIP6 Models

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 31st, 2024

Future increase in extreme El Niño supported by past glacial changes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 25th, 2024

Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 15th, 2020

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often i

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius- Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes.