DRERIP Ecosystem Conceptual Model: Floodplain

California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) | January 22nd, 2008

Elements common to all models (Figure 1). Gray shapes (“plaques” in Word parlance) are other DRERIP models. Brown polygons are modifying factors. Pink rectangles are

Elements common to all models (Figure 1). Gray shapes (“plaques” in Word parlance) are other DRERIP models. Brown polygons are modifying factors. Pink rectangles are primary outputs of direct interest to Delta restoration planners (e.g., splittail). Blue rectangles are hydrological characteristics or variables, primarily pertaining to the primary river that is the source of inundation to the floodplain of interest but some rectangles represent “secondary hydrology” such as water deriving from direction precipitation on the floodplain, and groundwater and tributary inputs. Blue-green rectangles represent inundated habitat characteristics – properties of the floodplain during periods of inundation. Model 1 (Creating the Template) captures the linkages and processes that create the habitat mosaic—the physical template of a given floodplain, such as topography and vegetative communities (Figure 2). Note that habitat mosaic is more than vegetative communities as it also includes topographic features like side channels, oxbows, and wetlands. This is a very basic model, so we didn’t attempt to use the information-coded arrows to indicate importance, predictability, etc. This model describes how floodplain topography and vegetation, important features treated as more or less static in the other models, are created and maintained. This model encompasses time scales ranging from a single flood event (e.g., bank erosion) to decades or centuries (successional processes in a floodplain forest). Delta restoration planners can use model 1 to understand management options for creating and maintaining habitat mosaics on a given floodplain. Model 2 (Inundating the template) depicts how a given floodplain, with topography and vegetation created within Model 1, is inundated by river flows and other sources of water to create specific conditions within the inundated floodplain that are important to the species or processes described in model set 3 (Figure 3). The hydrology first encounters river-floodplain topography (e.g., the relative elevations of floodplain to river stage) to determine if the floodplain becomes inundated; the other linkages only occur if flow magnitude is capable of exceeding the inundation threshold. Inundation is a function of flow magnitude in the river, along with contributions from other hydrological sources (e.g., local tributaries, high water table), and the relative elevation and connectivity of the river-floodplain topography. If inundation occurs, the floodwaters interact with the topography and vegetation created in Model 1. As inundation occurs across this mosaic it results in a variety of inundated habitat characteristics—conditions that directly affect biota and processes during the period of inundation. These inundated habitat characteristics are the primary inputs for Model Set 3. This model is primarily focused at the temporal scale of a single flood season. Delta restoration planners can use model 2 to evaluate how management actions can influence the inundation of floodplain habitat mosaics and characteristics of the inundated habitat. Model Set 3 (Management outputs) illustrates how the inundated habitat characteristics, developed in Model 2, interact with a few other key elements to influence the production of biota of direct interest to delta restoration planners, including algae, zooplankton, splittail, and juvenile Chinook salmon (Figures 4 - 7). Model Set 3 encompasses a temporal scale of a single flood season. Model Set 3 can be used to evaluate how specific characteristics of the inundated floodplain affect specific outputs of management interest. Figure 4 provides a basic overview of the inputs and outputs and relationships between the models in Model Set 3. Figure 5 focuses on the production of algae (phytoplankton and epibenthic algae) and zooplankton, structured as a food web. Figures 6 and 7 show how the inundated habitat characteristics and base of the food web (algae and zooplankton) affect the production of splittail and Chinook salmon, respectively. Primary management outputs from floodplain models: 1. Primary productivity, in terms of phytoplankton, the most nutritious organic matter for the downstream delta (Muller-Solger et al. 2002) and secondary productivity (zooplankton and macroinvertebrates). Because several important species in the delta are food-limited, as indicated by low first-year survival, floodplain restoration has been promoted as a means of increasing productivity to these species and ecosystems (Jassby and Cloern 2000). 2. Juvenile Chinook 3. Splittail 4. Habitat mosaic and riparian structure for a variety of species. The first three management outputs are Model 3 outputs. For these a user can work backwards through the models to understand how management options can increase the productivity of a specific desired output. For example, if the desired output is biologically available Carbon for downstream ecosystems (algae), then Figure 5 (Model 3) indicates that residence time and intra-annual frequency are important characteristics; for these characteristics of inundation to occur, Figure 3 (Model 2) indicates that the frequency of inundation can be influenced either through hydrologic or topographic manipulations, and the narrative for Model 1 provides background information on the processes that create and maintain floodplain topography. The management output ‘riparian structure’ is a Model 1 output.

DRERIP Ecosystem Restoration Model: Tidal marsh

California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) | October 1st, 2008

Tidal marshes are a subset of estuarine wetlands defined by the presence of emergent vegetation types uniquely adapted to sheltered intertidal zones of temperate and subt

Tidal marshes are a subset of estuarine wetlands defined by the presence of emergent vegetation types uniquely adapted to sheltered intertidal zones of temperate and subtropical coastal plains (Chapman 1960, 1976, Mitsch & Gosselink 1993). They are found across a full range of salinity conditions from seawater on the immediate coast to freshwater tidal reaches of estuarine river systems. Marshes are transitional ecosystems that provide critical connections between adjacent subtidal and terrestrial ecosystems within the estuarine landscape (Simenstad et al. 2000; Levin et al. 2001). These “critical transition zones” often function as conduits for substantial fluxes of materials and energy (Ewel et al. 2001), and provide a variety of valuable ecosystems functions, goods and services related to the maintenance of biodiversity, fish and wildlife habitat, water quality, flood abatement and carbon sequestration (Rabenhorst 1995, Costanza et al. 1997, Weslawski et al. 2004, Zedler & Kercher 2005). However, estuarine marshes and the biotic communities that depend on them are vulnerable to both direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts (Holland et al. 2004, Snelgrove et al. 2004), and the functionality of these systems can be difficult to restore once severely impacted (Zedler & Kercher 2005). The San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta estuary is perhaps the most hydrologically-engineered estuarine wetland system in the United States, and an estimated 95% of the marsh area that existed there in 1850 has been altered or converted to other land uses (Josselyn 1983). The principal source of freshwater input to the estuary enters through the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers; their inland delta (the Delta) is the terminus of a watershed that drains about 40% of California’s land area. Anthropogenic alterations of the estuary’s hydrologic characteristics have profoundly affected the extent and functioning of the tidal wetlands, particularly in the brackish and tidal fresh portions of the upper estuary associated with the Delta. Although the conceptual model presented in Figure 1 is intended to capture the features and dynamics of tidal marshes in the Delta (e.g., Suisun Bay to the upriver extent of the tides in the Delta), oligohaline and tidal freshwater marshes generally remain poorly understood. Recent texts (e.g., Sharitz & Pennings 2006) still consider the review by Odum (1988) as the best treatment of these low salinity tidal ecosystems. Consequently, development of the current conceptual biological model often required us to judiciously borrow from the more extensive literature on temperate salt marshes in diverse regions. Although one of our principal objectives in developing this model involves identifying the dominant processes and interactions that characterize restoring marshes at various stages of development, the model is intended to characterize the dynamics of “equilibrium” marshes at their mature state of geomorphic and ecological functioning (Pestrong 1972, Reed 2002, Williams et al. 2002). Our rationale is that restoring marshes are considerably variable and that trying to capture intermediate stages of development (e.g., positions along a development “trajectory”; Simenstad & Thom 1996 [however, see Zedler & Callaway 1999]) would introduce too much variability for a single model, and because the ultimate objective of restoration is the self-sustaining, equilibrium condition. However, we have sought were appropriate to describe important processes that influence restoration trajectories and affect the ecosystem functions, goods and services that marshes provide in various landscape settings that are found in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.

Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2019

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant eco

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world’s 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state’s GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three- fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.

Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 12th, 2015

This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase

This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, with fractional increases between 50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.

Earthquakes and High Water as Levee Hazards in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | September 30th, 2016

Economic consequence analysis of the ARkStorm scenario

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | November 1st, 2016

The business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from l

The business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, and lifeline services. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the California economy is developed to perform this economic consequence analysis. Economic resilience in the form of input and import substitution is inherent in the model’s equilibrium solution, and the model parameterization is adjusted to reflect other forms of resilience such as production recapture. Varying assumptions about the timing and source of funds for reconstruction results in a range of recovery paths. Five years after the storm, flood-induced building damage is the overwhelming source of gross domestic product (GDP) losses, timely and partially externally funded reconstruction mitigates impacts by approximately 50%, and the economy is not guaranteed to return to its baseline GDP trajectory. The methodology serves as a template for assessing the macroeconomic consequences of disasters and the influence of resilience in reducing BI losses.

Effects of vegetation on methylmercury concentrations and loads in a mercury contaminated floodplain

Science of The Total Environment (Elsevier) | August 3rd, 2023

The Yolo Bypass (YB) is a large flood conveyance system designed to protect the city of Sacramento, California, USA from flooding when the Sacramento River approaches flo

The Yolo Bypass (YB) is a large flood conveyance system designed to protect the city of Sacramento, California, USA from flooding when the Sacramento River approaches flood stage. The Sacramento River watershed and YB are a source of methylmercury (MeHg) to downstream habitat as a result of historic mercury (Hg) and gold mining practices. In the dry season, the YB is extensively farmed and grazed. However, depending on the water year, the floodplain may remain inundated for months. Our experiments focused on the role of pasture land and decomposing vegetation as a source of MeHg during extensive periods of floodplain flooding. Decomposing vegetation, rather than sediment, was identified as the principal source of filter passing MeHg (fMeHg) within the floodplain. The decomposing vegetation provided a substrate for microbial methylation of inorganic Hg contained within the plants. In replicated flooded mesocosm experiments, MeHg concentrations increased from 2.78 to 31.0 ng g− 1 dw and 3.41 to 56.8 ng g− 1 dw in decomposing vegetation. In field collections, the concentrations of MeHg in vegetation increased from preflood levels of 2.78 to 45.4 ng g− 1dw after 17 weeks of flooding. The importance of vegetation was shown in laboratory experiments where there was a positive correlation between the amount of fMeHg in water and the amount of vegetation added. These results also provide Hg concentration data for an important functional type of vegetation, grasses, and fill a data gap that contributed to uncertainties with regards to the role of vegetation in Hg cycling.

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 7th, 2017

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty i

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Elevated Grand Canyon groundwater recharge during the warm Early Holocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 2nd, 2023

Summer rainfall is an important contributor to water budgets in western North American deserts, where intense rainfall sustains ecosystems while also causing flash floods

Summer rainfall is an important contributor to water budgets in western North American deserts, where intense rainfall sustains ecosystems while also causing flash floods and damaging erosion. A better understanding of Grand Canyon palaeoclimate and the long-term history of the summer monsoon from summer-sensitive palaeoclimate records will improve our ability to project future hydroclimatic changes under warmer conditions. Here we show multi-proxy evidence for an intensification of the Early Holocene (11,700–8,200 years ago) hydrological cycle linked to a stronger and expanded summer North American Monsoon from calcite oxygen and uranium isotopes in a uranium-series precisely dated stalagmite from a Grand Canyon cave. Our results suggest that subsurface infiltration was greater in the Early Holocene than today at Grand Canyon. A data–model comparison with an isotope-enabled climate model suggests that enhanced infiltration was due to an Early Holocene monsoon intensification associated with rising atmospheric temperature. Projections of a future increase in precipitation intensity or more frequent and expanded North American monsoon rain events may paradoxically result in increased subsurface infiltration at Grand Canyon and other high-altitude plateaus, even within the context of western North American aridification in a hotter climate.

Elevation and Opportunity in the Delta: Restoring the Right Thing in the Right Place

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | May 31st, 2022

A future Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (“Delta” herein) that supports healthy ecosystems and native species, while also meeting flood risk reduction,

A future Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (“Delta” herein) that supports healthy ecosystems and native species, while also meeting flood risk reduction, water supply, water quality, carbon sequestration, economic, and cultural objectives, requires that appropriate restoration and management actions be taken in the right place at the right time. Geographic setting affects the potential opportunities available—not all actions are suitable everywhere. Physical factors determining what types of activities are appropriate now and in the future include a site’s elevation, degree of tidal and fluvial influence, salinity, soil type, and local effects of climate change, which all vary spatially across the Delta. While there has been considerable progress over the last several decades, continued acceleration of the pace and scale of enhancement actions appropriate to landscape position is needed. Understanding the physical template is necessary for developing strategies that move beyond opportunistic restoration, support resilience over time, and have the potential to connect and magnify benefits across the larger landscape.