Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | February 12th, 2015

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions never

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for bench- marking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.

Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 25th, 2025

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergon

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002. Areas experiencing drying increased by twice the size of California annually, creating “mega-drying” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry/wet areas continue to get drier/wetter, dry areas are now drying faster than wet areas are wetting. Changes in TWS are driven by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European droughts, and groundwater depletion, which accounts for 68% of TWS loss over non-glaciated continental regions. “Continental drying” is having profound global impacts. Since 2002, 75% of the population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater water. Furthermore, the continents now contribute more freshwater to sea level rise than the ice sheets, and drying regions now contribute more than land glaciers and ice caps. Urgent action is required to prepare for the major impacts of results presented

Urban Drought Guidebook: 2008 Updated Edition

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 8th, 2008

This guide will help water managers facing water shortages by showing them how to use tried and true methods of the past as well as making use of new tools and methods.

This guide will help water managers facing water shortages by showing them how to use tried and true methods of the past as well as making use of new tools and methods. Managing water shortages involves using programs to temporarily reduce demand and find alternate water to temporarily increase supply. The guidebook discusses water shortage management programs that belong in water shortage contingency plans. It was first written in 1988, and then updated in 1991 and 2008 to help water suppliers cope with potentially severe drought and other water shortages. The focus of the guide is to provide a step-by-step process to anticipate and respond to water shortages. The guidebook emphasizes two areas: First, it uses examples of well-conceived and executed plans in California and other parts of the country to illustrate recommendations whenever possible. Second, it stresses that successful programs are commonly the result of a cooperative effort between water suppliers and their customers. Activities that foster this spirit of cooperation are highlighted.

Urban hydrology and water management— Present and future challenges

Urban Water (Elsevier) | March 1st, 1999

Urban hydrology is an applied science that will have an increasing role to play in the sustainability of human societies. Facing present growth of urban population, it is

Urban hydrology is an applied science that will have an increasing role to play in the sustainability of human societies. Facing present growth of urban population, it is increasingly difficult to find and utilize new sources of water necessary to satisfy growing water demand. For the poor, the residents of peri-urban and squatter areas, an ultimate poverty, the poverty of lacking clean water, is a result. To remove this kind of poverty should be a first priority target for all people and, especially, for people dealing with water management in urban areas. Growth of urban areas brings significant changes in physical properties of land surface increasing integrated vulnerability of inhabitants, agricultural land and rural ecological life supporting systems. Performance of technical solutions depends on climate as well as on social, economical and cultural conditions. Findings from urban hydrological studies based on collection of urban hydrological data, calculations and modeling constitute a necessary fundamental for meaningful water management not only in urban areas but also in entire river basins. Future challenges in urban water management include development of new technical solutions as well as logistic and organizational methods in order to turn present problems into future opportunities. The following current and emerging challenges are discussed in the paper: delivery of drinking water supply for growing cities, water for sanitation versus sanitation without water, recycling of wastewater nutrients, wastewater irrigation, urban agriculture, water to feed depleted aquifers, thoughts about possible future new system solutions, social equity and transfer of knowledge and new technology.

Urban Water Conservation in the Sacramento, California Region During the 2014-2016 Drought

ProQuest Dissertations Publishing | December 30th, 2019

Variation in Salmon Migration Phenology Bolsters Population Stability but Is Threatened by Drought

Wiley Online Library | February 23rd, 2025

Intrapopulation variation in movement is common in nature but its effects on population dynamics are poorly understood. Using movement data from 3270 individually-marked

Intrapopulation variation in movement is common in nature but its effects on population dynamics are poorly understood. Using movement data from 3270 individually-marked fish representing nine cohorts of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in California, we show that bimodal intrapopulation variation in the timing of juvenile down-migration from their natal habitat and subsequent residence in non-natal habitat affects growth, emigration timing, and the abundance and stability of adult returns. Non-natal fish (early down-migrants) exhibited more variable growth and more variable but earlier emigration to the estuary than natal fish (late down-migrants). While natal rearing was more common, non-natal fish were overrepresented among adult returns, and total returns were 1.4 times more stable than natal returns alone. Our results demonstrate that variation in migratory behaviour bolsters population stability. However, non-natal rearing is reduced in low water years, suggesting that drought exacerbates population instability by reducing critical intrapopulation variation.

Vegetation Responses to 2012–2016 Drought in Northern and Southern California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 7th, 2019

In this study, we investigated California vegetation responses to the recent prolonged 2012–2016 drought, which was potentially the driest 4‐year span in the last 1,2

In this study, we investigated California vegetation responses to the recent prolonged 2012–2016 drought, which was potentially the driest 4‐year span in the last 1,200 years. The overall vegetation of the state has been presumed to be severely affected. However, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite data related to vegetation greenness show that the large‐scale drought impacts on observable vegetation health were principally focused in Southern California regions, where the vegetation communities experienced striking declines in greenness. By contrast, some areas of Northern California have demonstrated significant NDVI increase and this difference in NDVI trends is evident over the past 19 years. The distinct vegetation behavior in Northern and Southern California seems to be related to a climatic dipole in the western United States, which is influenced by the large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere interactions. Some climate models predict an extension of such a dipole with greater precipitation in Northern California and less in Southern California by the end of the 21st century. Increased water demand in the south could intensify statewide intersectoral and interregional water competition in the future. However, increasing drought damage to wildlands and their terrestrial ecosystems in the south will not be relieved by any type of traditional water reallocation and irrigation effort.

Warming accelerates global drought severity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 4th, 2025

Drought is one of the most common and complex natural hazards affecting the environment, economies and populations globally. However, there are significant uncertainties

Drought is one of the most common and complex natural hazards affecting the environment, economies and populations globally. However, there are significant uncertainties in global drought trends and a limited understanding of the extent to which a key driver, atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), impacts the recent evolution of the magnitude, frequency, duration and areal extent of droughts. Here, by developing an ensemble of high-resolution global drought datasets for 1901–2022, we find an increasing trend in drought severity worldwide. Our findings suggest that AED has increased drought severity by an average of 40% globally. Not only are typically dry regions becoming drier but also wet areas are experiencing drying trends. During the past 5 years (2018–2022), the areas in drought have expanded by 74% on average compared with 1981–2017, with AED contributing to 58% of this increase. The year 2022 was record-breaking, with 30% of the global land area affected by moderate and extreme droughts, 42% of which was attributed to increased AED. Our findings indicate that AED has an increasingly important role in driving severe droughts and that this tendency will likely continue under future warming scenarios.

Water Ages Explain Tradeoffs Between Long-Term Evapotranspiration and Ecosystem Drought Resilience

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 23rd, 2023

Water and climate: Recognize anthropogenic drought

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 27th, 2015