North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval drought

Holocene (Sage Journals) | February 1st, 2006

Unlike the major droughts of the twentieth century that are readily identified in the instrumental record, similar events in the nineteenth century have to be identified

Unlike the major droughts of the twentieth century that are readily identified in the instrumental record, similar events in the nineteenth century have to be identified using a combination of proxy data, historical accounts and a sparse collection of early instrumental records. In the USA, three distinct periods of widespread and persistent drought stand out in these records for the latter half of the nineteenth century: 1856-1865, 1870-1877 and 1890-1896. Each of these events is shown to coincide with the existence of an anomalously cool, La Nifia-like tropical Pacific. To examine the physical mechanisms behind these droughts two ensembles of simulations with an atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) were generated: the first forces an AGCM with the observed history of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) everywhere from 1856 to 2001 (the GOGA experiment), the second forces the AGCM only with tropical Pacific SSTs, being coupled to a two-layer entraining mixed layer (ML) ocean elsewhere (the POGA-ML experiment). Owing to a sparsity of instrumental precipitation data at this time, proxy evidence from tree rings is used as verification. A comparison of modelled soil moisture with tree-ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a proxy for soil moisture, from the North American Drought Atlas is made. Both the POGA-ML and GOGA ensemble means capture the three multi-year droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century, indicating that the droughts were SST forced. The similarity of the POGA-ML and GOGA simulations implies that the component of each drought signal that is forced by the SST is driven ultimately by the La Nifia-like tropical Pacific. The global atmosphere-ocean context of each of the mid to late-nineteenth century droughts reveals a zonally and hemispherically symmetric pattern consistent with forcing from the tropics. In addition, Rossby wave propagation from the cooler equatorial Pacific amplifies dry conditions over the USA. Finally, using published coral data for the last millennium to reconstruct a NINO 3.4 history, the modern-day relationship between NINO 3.4 and North American drought is applied to recreate two of the severest Mediaeval ‘drought epochs’ in the western USA. The large-scale spatial similarity to the Drought Atlas data demonstrates the potential link between a colder eastern equatorial Pacific and the persistent North American droughts of the Mediaeval period.

Observational evidence of increased afternoon rainfall downwind of irrigated areas

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 10th, 2025

Irrigation plays a vital role in addressing the growing food demand of an increasing global population. It represents one of the most critical and direct human interventi

Irrigation plays a vital role in addressing the growing food demand of an increasing global population. It represents one of the most critical and direct human interventions on the coupled water and energy cycles. As irrigated farmland continues to expand, understanding the climate impact of extensive irrigation becomes increasingly important. Yet, the effect on rainfall patterns near irrigated areas remains unclear. Here, using two global, high-resolution, sub-daily precipitation datasets, we show that afternoon rain events occur more often 10 km to 50 km downwind and less often upwind of extensively irrigated land. However, we also find that the total amount of heavy afternoon rain downwind of irrigated areas is lower than upwind. Our results establish large-scale observational evidence of the local precipitation dynamics surrounding irrigated areas; these insights will help constrain the representation of these processes in next-generation climate and weather forecasting models and provide valuable insights for regional water management.

Observed and anticipated impacts of drought on forest insects and diseases in the United States

Forest Ecology and Management (Elsevier) | May 11th, 2016

Future anthropogenic-induced changes to the earth’s climate will likely include increases in temperature and changes in precipitation that will increase the fre

Future anthropogenic-induced changes to the earth’s climate will likely include increases in temperature and changes in precipitation that will increase the frequency and severity of droughts. Insects and fungal diseases are important disturbances in forests, yet understanding of the role of drought in outbreaks of these agents is limited. Current knowledge concerning the effects of drought on herbivorous insect and pathogen outbreaks in U.S. forests is reviewed, and compared between the relatively mesic and structurally diverse forests of the eastern U.S. and the more xeric forests of the western U.S. Theory and limited evidence suggests a non-linear relationship between drought intensity and outbreaks of aggressive bark beetle species (i.e., those capable of causing extensive levels of tree mortality), where moderate droughts reduce bark beetle population performance and subsequent tree mortality, whereas intense droughts, which frequently occur in the western U.S., increase bark beetle performance and tree mortality. There is little evidence for a role of drought in outbreaks of the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis), the only bark beetle species that causes large amounts of tree mortality in the eastern U.S. Defoliators do not show consistent responses to drought. The response of sap-feeders to drought appears non-linear, with the greatest performance and impacts at intermediate drought intensity or when drought is alleviated by wetter periods. Interactions between tree pathogens and drought are poorly understood, but available evidence suggests reduced pathogen performance and host impacts in response to drought for primary pathogens and pathogens whose lifecycle depends directly on mois- ture (humidity). In these cases, rates of reproduction, spread, and infection tend to be greater when conditions are moist. In contrast, secondary fungal pathogens (i.e., those that depend on stressed hosts for colonization) are anticipated to respond to drought with greater performance and host impacts. In the western U.S., drought increases stress on trees severely infected by mistletoes thereby predisposing mistletoe-infected trees to attack by insects, particularly bark beetles and wood borers. Research needed to advance understanding of drought impacts on forest insects and diseases, and the role of forest man- agement in mitigation of infestations during drought are discussed.

On the Sources of Water Supply Forecast Error in Western Colorado

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 1st, 2023

Pacific sea-surface temperature related to rain in California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 1st, 1977

California is experiencing the worst drought in modern history, and there is much concern and speculation about future rainfall prospects. We recently succeeded in relati

California is experiencing the worst drought in modern history, and there is much concern and speculation about future rainfall prospects. We recently succeeded in relating South Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) to rain in northeastern Brazil1, and here we use similar methods to relate sea surface temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean to rainfall in California. We found December SST in the north-east Pacific off Washington to have a limited but definite predictive value, and to account for about 45% of the variation in California rainfall for the period February–April.

Past and Projected Future Droughts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 29th, 2024

Past Groundwater Drought in the North American Cordillera

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 11th, 2024

Patterns and magnitude of flow alteration in California, USA

Freshwater Biology (Wiley) | December 27th, 2017

The importance of the natural flow regime to stream and river health has received growing attention over the last two decades. Quantifying natural river flows has become

The importance of the natural flow regime to stream and river health has received growing attention over the last two decades. Quantifying natural river flows has become an essential component of water resource planning, including assessments of water supplies (Vicuna,Maurer, Joyce, Dracup, & Purkey, 2007; Wurbs, 2005), reservoir operations (Hejazi, Cai, & Ruddell, 2008) and drought risk (Meko,Therrell, Baisan, & Hughes, 2001). Understanding the natural flow regime is also crucial for managing stream ecosystems.

Pilot Projects to Increase Colorado River System Water in Lake Powell and Lake Mead

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | January 14th, 2022

From calendar year 2015 through 2018, 64 projects were implemented in the Upper Basin resulting in an estimated 47,280 acre-feet of Colorado River System water conserved

From calendar year 2015 through 2018, 64 projects were implemented in the Upper Basin resulting in an estimated 47,280 acre-feet of Colorado River System water conserved in the Upper Basin at a cost of $8.5 million or $180.23 per acre-foot on average. From January 2015 through December 31, 2019 in the Lower Basin, 16 projects were implemented which will result in 175,347 acre-feet of Colorado River System water in Lake Mead by 2035, at a cost of approximately $29.8 million or $170.14 per acre-foot on average. The Pilot Program successfully demonstrated that voluntary, compensated water conservation projects can conserve water for Colorado River System storage to help mitigate the impacts of drought.

Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead – Draft Environmental Impact Statement

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | January 16th, 2026

The Secretary of the Department of the Interior, acting through the Bureau of Reclamation, proposes the adoption of new guidelines and coordinated management strategies t

The Secretary of the Department of the Interior, acting through the Bureau of Reclamation, proposes the adoption of new guidelines and coordinated management strategies to address Lake Powell and Lake Mead through their full operating range to take effect when the current agreements expire in 2026. Management strategies will primarily focus on the operation of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam, but may include actions upstream and downstream of these facilities to protect critical reservoir elevations. This Draft EIS has been prepared to inform the Secretary’s timely adoption of a new set of guidelines that would be sufficiently robust and provide improved predictability to all water users and managers in the Colorado River Basin. This Draft EIS has been prepared pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act to address the formulation and evaluation of specific interim criteria and to identify the potential environmental impacts of implementing such criteria.