Managing California’s Freshwater Ecosystems: Lessons from the 2012–16 Drought

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 9th, 2017

The 2012–16 drought caused unprecedented stress to California’s ecosystems and pushed many native species to the brink of extinction. It also tested the laws, policie

The 2012–16 drought caused unprecedented stress to California’s ecosystems and pushed many native species to the brink of extinction. It also tested the laws, policies, and institutions charged with protecting the environment. Eight case studies on environmental water management during the drought reveal both strengths and weaknesses in federal, state, and local response that can inform how California addresses future droughts.

Managing Drought in a Changing Climate: Four Essential Reforms

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | September 12th, 2018

California’s climate is changing. Hotter temperatures, a shrinking snowpack, shorter and more intense wet seasons, rising sea level, and more volatile precipita

California’s climate is changing. Hotter temperatures, a shrinking snowpack, shorter and more intense wet seasons, rising sea level, and more volatile precipitation—with wetter wet years and drier dry years—are stressing the state’s water management system. Recent climate projections indicate that the pace of change will increase. To avoid unwanted social, economic, and environmental consequences, the water system will need to adapt to greater climate extremes and growing water scarcity. While California is making good progress in some areas of drought management, a more focused plan of action is needed. Successful adaptation will require strong leadership at the state and local levels, and cooperation on all fronts. The 2012–16 drought—the hottest in the state’s recorded history and one of the driest—offered a window into the future under a warming climate and lessons for managing future droughts. Using these lessons as a starting point, this report offers a road map of essential reforms to prepare for and respond to droughts in California’s changing climate. Key reforms include: Plan ahead. Stronger drought planning is critically important for urban water management, groundwater sustainability, safe drinking water in rural communities, and freshwater ecosystems. Upgrade the water grid. California needs a comprehensive program to address above- and below-ground storage, conveyance, and operational challenges by mid-century, including repairing facilities that are broken, expanding conveyance and storage capacity, and modernizing and integrating operations. Update water allocation rules. California should comprehensively update its water allocation governance. The goals should be to find equitable and efficient ways to allocate limited supplies among competing demands during dry times while promoting efforts to capture and store water during wet times. Find the money. Reliable funding is crucial for adapting to climate change. New sources are needed to pay for necessary water-management investments and to fill funding gaps in the state’s water system. The focus of this reform agenda is on drought, because drought―more than any other aspect of California’s climate―reveals the vulnerabilities of watermanagement systems. Importantly, these reforms will improve drought resilience for today’s conditions, not just for the future.

Managing Drought: Learning from Australia

Pacific Institute | February 1st, 2016

Overall, Australia survived the Millennium Drought, demonstrating world leading innovation and exceptional examples of water planning and management driven by crisis. Yet

Overall, Australia survived the Millennium Drought, demonstrating world leading innovation and exceptional examples of water planning and management driven by crisis. Yet there are also examples of missed opportunities, as well as initiatives and decisions that did not work well. The research presented here reflects on some of the key lessons from the Australian Millennium Drought experience in order to assess the opportunities for California. This report serves as a powerful resource for Californian water planners and managers as it grapples with drought and seeks to build resilient and sustainable water systems. It provides a one-stop shop overview of the key events and initiatives implemented in Australia’s four largest cities – Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane (and the surrounding south east Queensland region), and Perth. The work represents one interpretation of the drought and responses, informed by significant engagement with utilities and governments throughout that period, and a close working knowledge of the water systems and the policy environment. Specific attention is given to the role of demand-side measures in reducing the impact of drought. In Australia, urban water efficiency was the quiet achiever – saving more water at lower cost and greater speed than supply options. California can benefit from long-term structural water savings by implementing water efficiency measures at a similar breadth and scale.

Managing Water for the Environment During Drought: Lessons from Victoria, Australia

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | June 16th, 2016

Over the past 30 years the Australian state of Victoria developed innovative approaches to planning and setting priorities for environmental water, along with new tools t

Over the past 30 years the Australian state of Victoria developed innovative approaches to planning and setting priorities for environmental water, along with new tools to manage it. These sweeping reforms were in part a response to the Millennium Drought, a decade-long record dry spell that severely affected all water use in Victoria. California—currently in its fifth year of drought—has many similarities with Victoria, including significant challenges in managing the health of rivers and wetlands during times of extreme water scarcity. In this report, we examine the reforms enacted by Victoria and compare them to current environmental water management policies in California. This comparison highlights some key lessons learned by Victoria that may help guide how California adapts environmental water management to address future droughts. The environmental policy reforms enacted by Victoria were difficult and at times highly controversial. While it will take years to fully understand whether these reforms had their intended effect, there is no doubt that the state’s new approach to managing environmental water avoided some serious biological losses during the drought. Additionally, it is clear that the state is much better prepared for the next drought.

Mean and Extreme Climate Change Impacts on the State Water Project

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 27th, 2018

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks t

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks to California’s State Water Project (SWP) and federal Central Valley Project (CVP). This study uses the California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR’s) newly developed water planning model, CalSim 3.0, as a risk assessment tool. Impacts were assessed for 20 climate change scenarios (10 global climate models and two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Water supply and water quality metrics evaluated include Delta exports, North of Delta Carryover storage, reservoir dead storage (i.e. when reservoir levels fall below the lowest outlets), and Delta salinity. Results for the driest future scenario were also analyzed to examine future drought impacts. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests were implemented to assess individual impacts of four climate change factors: flow seasonal pattern shift, sea level rise, annual flow volume change, and water demand change on the State Water Project and Central Valley Project operations. It was found that flow seasonal pattern shift will become a major climate change factor and sea level rise a secondary factor, leading to a half million‐acre feet of Delta export reduction as well as a roughly 25% decrease of North‐of‐Delta carryover storage by around 2060. The results also indicate that the extra runoff from early snow melting and higher percentage of rain in the winter and early spring is not conserved in reservoirs and thus cannot be used to meet the higher summer demand in the current SWP/CVP system. This extra water is released as flood water in the winter and early spring to become Delta outflow.

Mechanisms of a Meteorological Drought Onset: Summer 2020 to Spring 2021 in Southwestern North America

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | November 1st, 2022

By summer 2021 moderate to exceptional drought impacted 28% of North America, focused west of the Mississippi, with serious impacts on fire, water resources, and agricult

By summer 2021 moderate to exceptional drought impacted 28% of North America, focused west of the Mississippi, with serious impacts on fire, water resources, and agriculture. Here, using reanalyses and SST-forced climate models, we examine the onset and development of this southwestern drought from its inception in summer 2020 through winter and spring 2020/21. The drought severity in summer 2021 resulted from four consecutive prior seasons in which precipitation in the southwest United States was the lowest on record or, at least, extremely dry. The dry conditions in summer 2020 arose from internal atmospheric variability but are beyond the range of what the studied atmosphere models simulate for that season. From winter 2020 through spring 2021 the worsening drought conditions were guided by the development of a La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean aided drought in the southern part of the region by driving the cool season to be drier during the last two decades. There is also evidence that the southern part of the region in spring is drying due to human-driven climate change. In sum the drought onset was driven by a combination of internal atmospheric variability and interannual climate variability and aided by natural decadal variability and human-driven climate change.

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 4th, 2022

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions. Anthropogenic climate change has intensified ongoing megadroughts in south-western North America and across Chile and Argentina. Future megadroughts will be substantially warmer than past events, with this warming driving projected increases in megadrought risk and severity across many regions, including western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, extratropical South America, and Australia. However, several knowledge gaps currently undermine confidence in understanding past and future megadroughts. These gaps include a paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate information over Africa, tropical South America and other regions; incomplete representations of internal variability and land surface processes in climate models; and the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to mitigate megadrought impacts. Addressing these deficiencies will be crucial for increasing confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and for resiliency planning.

Memorandum of Understanding by and among Colorado River Basin Municipal and Public Water Providers

Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) | November 15th, 2022

Monitoring of Drought Awareness from Google Trends: A Case Study of the 2011–17 California Drought

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | April 1st, 2019

Moving Forward Effort: Phase 1 Report

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | May 1st, 2015

In 2012, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), in partnership with the seven Colorado River Basin States (Basin States) and in collaboration with a wide spectrum of

In 2012, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), in partnership with the seven Colorado River Basin States (Basin States) and in collaboration with a wide spectrum of Colorado River Basin (Basin) stakeholders, published the most comprehensive study of future Basin supply and demand ever undertaken. The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Basin Study) confirmed that, in the absence of timely action, there are likely to be significant shortfalls between projected water supplies and demands in coming decades. The Basin Study also confirmed that a wide range of solutions are needed to mitigate and adapt to such shortfalls, which are likely to affect each sector (agricultural, municipal, energy, and environmental, for example) dependent on the Colorado River and its tributaries. In response to the findings of the Basin Study, in May 2013, Reclamation and the Basin States, in collaboration with the Ten Tribes Partnership and conservation organizations, initiated the Moving Forward effort to build on future considerations and next steps identified in the Basin Study. The Moving Forward effort builds upon and enhances the broad, inclusive stakeholder process demonstrated in the Basin Study with an ultimate goal of identifying actionable steps to address projected water supply and demand imbalances that have broad-based support and provide a wide-range of benefits. The Moving Forward effort is being conducted in a phased approach. Phase 1, which was funded by Reclamation and the Basin States, began with the formation of a Coordination Team and three multi-stakeholder workgroups that focus on water conservation, reuse, and environmental and recreational flows. The Phase 1 Report documents the activities and outcomes of the workgroups during this phase. Commenting on the information provided in the Phase 1 Report is encouraged. Written comments should be submitted within 90 days following the release of this report. The comments will be summarized and posted to the Moving Forward website and will be considered in future Moving Forward phases. Instructions for submitting comments are provided at [this link].