Final Environmental Impact Statement Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | July 31st, 2026

The Colorado River Basin (Basin) provides essential water supplies to approximately 40 million people, nearly 5.5 million acres of agricultural lands, and habitat for eco

The Colorado River Basin (Basin) provides essential water supplies to approximately 40 million people, nearly 5.5 million acres of agricultural lands, and habitat for ecological resources across seven states which includes broad areas in the Southwestern United States (U.S.) and Northwestern United Mexican States (Mexico). Prudent management of the Basin is critically important because the Colorado River is the foundation for diverse resources across a large geographic region and faces exceptional challenges from prolonged drought and future uncertainty. States, tribes, and Mexico rely on the Colorado River to support essential municipal, agricultural, environmental, cultural, and hydropower needs. These resources are now at significant risk: since the onset of the current drought in 2000, the Basin’s primary reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, have fallen to historically low elevations. Several of the major reservoir- and water-management documents and agreements developed to guide Colorado River operations through the persistently dry conditions expire in 2026, including the 2007 Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (2007 Interim Guidelines; Reclamation 2007), the 2019 Colorado River Drought Contingency Plans (Reclamation 2019), and key international agreements between the U.S. and Mexico. Despite the significance of these agreements, actions taken over the past two decades have not been sufficiently robust to prevent continued decline of the reservoirs through the prolonged drought. The Secretary of the Interior (Secretary), acting through the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), proposes adoption of new guidelines and coordinated management strategies to address Lake Powell and Lake Mead through their full operating ranges to take effect when the current agreements expire in 2026. Volume I Executive Summary Cover, Abstract, Table of Contents, and Acronyms Chapter 1. Purpose and Need Chapter 2: Description of Alternatives Chapter 3: Affected Environment and Environmental Consequences Chapter 4: Consultation and Coordination Volumes II,  III, IV Click here to be taken to Reclamation for Supporting Appendices, Preparers, References, Glossary, and Index

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment: Alteration of streamflow magnitudes and potential ecological consequences: a multiregional assessment

Ecological Society of America (Wiley) | October 19th, 2010

Human impacts on watershed hydrology are widespread in the US, but the prevalence and severity of streamflow alteration and its potential ecological consequences have not

Human impacts on watershed hydrology are widespread in the US, but the prevalence and severity of streamflow alteration and its potential ecological consequences have not been quantified on a national scale. We assessed streamflow alteration at 2888 streamflow monitoring sites throughout the conterminous US. The magnitudes of mean annual (1980–2007) minimum and maximum streamflows were found to have been altered in 86% of assessed streams. The occurrence, type, and severity of streamflow alteration differed markedly between arid and wet climates. Biological assessments conducted on a subset of these streams showed that, relative to eight chemical and physical covariates, diminished flow magnitudes were the primary predictors of biological integrity for fish and macroinvertebrate communities. In addition, the likelihood of biological impairment doubled with increasing severity of diminished streamflows. Among streams with diminished flow magnitudes, increasingly common fish and macroinvertebrate taxa possessed traits characteristic of lake or pond habitats, including a preference for fine-grained substrates and slow-moving currents, as well as the ability to temporarily leave the aquatic environment.

Funding Opportunity for Voluntary Participation in the Lower Colorado Conservation and Efficiency Program

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | October 12th, 2022

Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 14th, 2010

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, parti- cularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and per- sist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were re- markably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter st

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 15th, 2020

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often i

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius- Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes.

Generalized Streamflow Relations of the San Bernardino and Eastern San Gabriel Mountains, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 19th, 1972

Global assessment and hotspots of lake drought

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 23rd, 2025

Going Beyond Low Flows: Streamflow Drought Deficit and Duration Illuminate Distinct Spatiotemporal Drought Patterns and Trends in the U.S. During the Last Century

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 30th, 2022

Streamflow drought is a recurring challenge, and understanding spatiotemporal patterns of past droughts is needed to manage future water resources. We examined regional p

Streamflow drought is a recurring challenge, and understanding spatiotemporal patterns of past droughts is needed to manage future water resources. We examined regional patterns in streamflow drought metrics and compared these metrics to low flow timing and magnitude using long-term daily records for 555 minimally disturbed watersheds. For each streamgage, we calculated streamflow drought duration (number of days) and deficit (flow volume below a specified threshold) for each climate year (April 1–March 31). We identified drought using five thresholds (2%–30%) and two approaches: variable thresholds with unique values for each day of the year, and a fixed threshold based on all period-of-record flows. We then analyzed drought trends using the Mann-Kendall test with persistence adjustment for 1921–2020, 1951–2020, and 1981–2020, and computed correlations between annual streamflow drought metrics and climate metrics using values from a monthly water balance model. Spatial patterns in drought metrics were consistent between variable and fixed approaches, though fixed threshold durations were typically longer and variable threshold deficits larger. High interannual variability in drought duration emerged in the central, interior west, and southwestern U.S., with high deficit variability in the interior west. Drought metrics were weakly correlated with low flow magnitude and timing, providing unique information. Drought duration and deficit increased in the southern and western U.S. for both 1951–2020 and 1981–2020, particularly using fixed thresholds, and paralleled trends in aridity. Projections of continued aridification for the southern and western U.S. may increase drought durations and deficits and intensify water availability impacts.