Emerging trends in global freshwater availability

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 17th, 2018

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) sat

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002–2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world’s water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.

Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 14th, 2025

Essential Pillars for the Post-2026 Colorado River Guidelines

John Fleck | April 25th, 2025

Estimating Historical California Precipitation Phase Trends Using Gridded Precipitation, Precipitation Phase, and Elevation Data

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 18th, 2014

Climate change projections for California indicate reduction in the percentage of precipitation that falls as snow, and increase in the percentage that falls as rain, due

Climate change projections for California indicate reduction in the percentage of precipitation that falls as snow, and increase in the percentage that falls as rain, due to warmer temperatures in the future. Previous work has shown overall decreases in rainfall / snowfall ratios for the western US over the last 60 years. Of interest in this study is the quantification of snow/rain ratios for smaller regions, specifically in California. Estimating cumulative precipitation phase ratios for specific regions is difficult due to large differences in local precipitation. In California, the high relief of the surface topography makes such estimates particularly difficult. The low spatial resolution of suitable precipitation/snow water equivalent monitoring stations contributes to the difficulty in quantifying the trends for sub-state sized regions of interest in this study. The present exploratory study develops and describes a methodology that uses readily available research data sets to produce gridded estimates of historical rainfall as a fraction of total precipitation for areas comprising the major water-supply watersheds of California. Using this methodology, statistically significant increases in the ratio of annual liquid to total precipitation are seen for large areas in the northern part of the State and northern Sierra over the water year. No significant annual trends are seen for regions in the central and southern portions of the Sierra. Future work extending the analysis to distinct elevation ranges and seasonality would provide more refined conclusions.

Evaluating Micrometeorological Estimates of Groundwater Discharge from Great Basin Desert Playas

National Groundwater Association (NGWA) | March 6th, 2018

Groundwater availability studies in the arid southwestern United States traditionally have assumed that groundwater discharge by evapotranspiration (ETg) from desert play

Groundwater availability studies in the arid southwestern United States traditionally have assumed that groundwater discharge by evapotranspiration (ETg) from desert playas is a significant component of the groundwater budget. However, desert playa ETg rates are poorly constrained by Bowen ratio energy budget (BREB) and eddy‐covariance (EC) micrometeorological measurement approaches. Best attempts by previous studies to constrain ETg from desert playas have resulted in ETg rates that are within the measurement error of micrometeorological approaches. This study uses numerical models to further constrain desert playa ETg rates that are within the measurement error of BREB and EC approaches, and to evaluate the effect of hydraulic properties and salinity‐based groundwater density contrasts on desert playa ETg rates. Numerical models simulated ETg rates from desert playas in Death Valley, California and Dixie Valley, Nevada. Results indicate that actual ETg rates from desert playas are significantly below the uncertainty thresholds of BREB‐ and EC‐based micrometeorological measurements. Discharge from desert playas likely contributes less than 2% of total groundwater discharge from Dixie and Death Valleys, which suggests discharge from desert playas also is negligible in other basins. Simulation results also show that ETg from desert playas primarily is limited by differences in hydraulic properties between alluvial fan and playa sediments and, to a lesser extent, by salinity‐based groundwater density contrasts.

Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 27th, 2022

Changes in evapotranspiration (ET) affect water availability and ecosystem health. Higher evaporative demand during drought acts to increase ET, but droughts also reduce

Changes in evapotranspiration (ET) affect water availability and ecosystem health. Higher evaporative demand during drought acts to increase ET, but droughts also reduce the moisture supply necessary for ET, limiting predictions of even the sign of ET anomalies. Drought-driven increases in ET (ET+drought) are of particular concern because they quickly deplete water resources, causing flash droughts and acute stress on ecosystems. Here, using a water balance approach, we show that ET+drought is globally widespread, occurring in 44.4% of drought months. The sign of ET’s drought response depends most on the magnitude of precipitation and total water storage anomalies, rather than its location. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Earth system models underestimate the ET+drought probability by nearly one-half, and more so in drier regions, primarily due to missing representations of soil structure effects on soil evaporation, as well as incorrectly parameterized plant and soil traits. These processes should be prioritized to reduce model uncertainties in the water–energy–food nexus.

Evolution of global snow drought characteristics from 1850 to 2100

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | June 6th, 2023

Examining the Contribution of the Observed Global Warming Trend to the California Droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 30th, 2014

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy se

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy season on record (1895–2014), while the 2012/13 season registered as the 45th warmest and 38th driest (Vose et al. 2014). The 2013 January–December calendar year was the driest on record (Water CA 2014). These consecutive below-normal seasons conspired with warm temperatures to reduce California’s snowpack to the second lowest level since 1960, when recording began, with snowpack at 24% of normal (Water CA 2014). Between January 2013 and January 2014, satellite observations documented dramatic snowpack-related land cover change (NASA Earth Observatory 2014): in 2014, the Cascade, Sierra Nevada, and Coastal ranges were almost completely devoid of snow. In February and March of 2014, air temperatures were extremely warm (NOAA NCDC 2014; HPRC 2014), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) observations indicated extreme or moderate hydrologic drought (USGS 2014) and high levels of vegetation stress (VegDRI 2014). The state declared a drought emergency (NIDIS 2014). While it is too soon to assess the full impact of the 2012/13 and 2013/14 California droughts, they seem likely to substantially impact the state’s ability to generate hydrologic power, support agriculture, reduce the risk of forest and bush fires, and protect fragile ecosystems (Huffington Post 2014). *Chapter 4, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9)

Exploring the Origins of Snow Drought in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | February 22nd, 2018

The concept of snow drought is gaining widespread interest as the climate of snow-dominated mountain watersheds continues to change. Warm snow drought is defined

The concept of snow drought is gaining widespread interest as the climate of snow-dominated mountain watersheds continues to change. Warm snow drought is defined as above- or near-average accumulated pre- cipitation coinciding with below-average snow water equivalent at a point in time. Dry snow drought is defined as below-average accumulated precipitation and snow water equivalent at a point in time. This study contends that such point-in-time definitions might miss important components of how snow droughts originate, persist, and terminate. Using these simple definitions and a variety of observations at monthly, daily, and hourly time scales, the authors explore the hydrometeorological origins of potential snow droughts in the northern Sierra Nevada from water years 1951 to 2017. This study finds that snow droughts can result from extreme early season precipitation, frequent rain- on-snow events, and low precipitation years. Late-season snow droughts can follow persistent warm and dry periods with effects that depend upon elevation. Many snow droughts were characterized by lower snow fractions and midwinter peak runoff events. These findings can guide improved evaluations of historical and potential future snow droughts, particularly with regards to how impacts on water resources and mountain ecosystems may vary depending on how snow droughts originate and evolve in time.

Exploring the Potential for Water-Limited Agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | July 21st, 2022

The rollout of California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is altering the state’s agricultural landscape. As groundwater sustainability measures are

The rollout of California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is altering the state’s agricultural landscape. As groundwater sustainability measures are implemented and water scarcity increases, at least half a million acres are projected to come out of irrigated production in the San Joaquin Valley, the state’s agricultural heartland. Rather than widespread land idling—which comes with unintended consequences such as dust, weeds, pests, and soil degradation — a switch from summer irrigated crops to winter crops produced with limited water (including winter cereals and forage crops, among others) might keep some of this land in production. Although water-limited agriculture faces large hurdles, some promising aspects warrant further exploration.