Quantifying the role of atmospheric rivers in the interior western United States

Royal Meteorological Society (RMS) | July 13th, 2012

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have increasingly been recognized for their contribution to high-impact weather and climate variability. A recent investigation based on observat

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have increasingly been recognized for their contribution to high-impact weather and climate variability. A recent investigation based on observations located primarily in lowland valleys and basins of the western United States suggests that 10 – 50% of the total cool season (November to April) precipitation between water years 1998 and 2008 occurred on the day of and day following AR landfall (hereafter the AR fraction), as identified using  Special Sensor Microwave Imager data. However, these results are based only on ARs crossing the North American west coast between 32.5◦N and 52.5◦N, which excludes those crossing the west coast of the Baja Peninsula. Here, we identify ARs in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and examine the AR fraction at high-elevation observational sites and in the NOAA/CPC Unified Daily Precipitation Analysis. At high-elevation snowpack telemetry sites, we find good agreement with the AR fraction obtained previously for valley and basin locations. We also show that including ARs crossing the west coast of the Baja Peninsula (as far south as 24◦N) substantially increases the AR fraction over the southwestern United States

Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2024

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 7th, 2017

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Rapid vegetation redistribution in Southern California during the early 2000s drought

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 31st, 2012

Climate change in semi-arid, midlatitude mountain environments is expected to shift the spatial patterns of temperature, water availability, and vegetation upslope. Veg

Climate change in semi-arid, midlatitude mountain environments is expected to shift the spatial patterns of temperature, water availability, and vegetation upslope. Vegetation growing near its low-elevation range limit may prove especially vulnerable to mortality and decline. We investigated the altitudinal pattern of conifer mortality that occurred from 2002 to 2004 in Southern California’s San Jacinto Mountains. We found that conifer mortality was focused in the lower portion of the midmontane conifer range, which drove the midmontane conifer distribution upslope. We investigated past reports of conifer mortality in Southern California by searching historical newspaper accounts. We found evidence of previous episodes of conifer mortality that coincided with past droughts, and which may have caused vegetation redistribution in the past. We interpret the early2000s mortality and associated vegetation redistribution as a response to natural decadal tocentennial climate variability. Moreover, we hypothesize this response mode will dominatethe early impact of global climate change on semi-arid forest, which, in turn, may complicate efforts to distinguish between ecological changes attributable to natural climate variability and those attributable to global climate change.

Re-Oaking North Bay: A strategy for restoring native oak ecosystems, focusing on Napa and Sonoma valleys

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | July 7th, 2020

Oaks are iconic trees in California, the defining feature of savannas and woodlands in many parts of the state. For millennia, these majestic trees have provided the e

Oaks are iconic trees in California, the defining feature of savannas and woodlands in many parts of the state. For millennia, these majestic trees have provided the ecological foundation upon which thousands of other organisms depend. Their cultural significance is equally profound: they are of central importance to diverse indigenous groups, and are prized for the many benefits they provide California residents. Vast expanses of oak savanna historically occupied the rich alluvial soils of Napa and Sonoma valleys. The immense and long-lived valley oak (Quercus lobata) dominated these savannas, accounting for more than 65% of trees (Dawson 2008, Grossinger et al. 2012). Early observers described the valleys as “studded with groups of oaks” (Marryat 1850), and extolled the “magnificent oaks” that were “the glory of the landscape scenery” (Smith and Elliott 1878). Black oak (Q. kelloggii), coast live oak (Q. agrifolia), and other oak species were present in smaller numbers on the valley floors and were more abundant in the hillsides (Dawson 2008, Grossinger et al. 2012). Over the past two centuries, however, much of this oak savanna has been cleared to make way for orchards, vineyards, and towns. In Napa Valley, the number of mature trees has declined from an estimated 45,000 in the early 1800s to less than 1,000 today (Grossinger et al. 2012). Valley oak habitat has been particularly affected by clearing and fragmentation: in many areas of the state, loss of valley oak woodland exceeds 90% (Kelly et al. 2005, Whipple et al. 2011). Documentation of this loss, and recognition of the value of oaks for both people and nature, has led to a growing desire to restore this unique ecosystem and bring back many of the benefits that oaks provide. Despite the significant changes the North Bay landscape has experienced since European settlement, there are opportunities to restore oaks in settings as diverse as backyards, parks, streets, farms, vineyards, and creeksides.

Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 1st, 2016

During the winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015, anomalously warm temperatures in western North America and anomalously cool temperatures in eastern North America resu

During the winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015, anomalously warm temperatures in western North America and anomalously cool temperatures in eastern North America resulted in substantial human and environmental impacts. Motivated by the impacts of these concurrent temperature extremes and the intrinsic atmospheric linkage between weather conditions in the western and eastern United States, we investigate the occurrence of concurrent “warm-West/cool-East” surface temperature anomalies, which we call the “North American winter temperature dipole.” We find that, historically, warm-West/cool-East dipole conditions have been associated with anomalous mid-tropospheric ridging over western North America and downstream troughing over eastern North America. We also find that the occurrence and severity of warm-West/cool-East events have increased significantly between 1980 and 2015, driven largely by an increase in the frequency with which high-amplitude “ridge-trough” wave patterns result in simultaneous severe temperature conditions in both the West and East. Using a large single-model ensemble of climate simulations, we show that the observed positive trend in the warm-West/cool-East events is attributable to historical anthropogenic emissions including greenhouse gases, but that the co-occurrence of extreme western warmth and eastern cold will likely decrease in the future as winter temperatures warm dramatically across the continent, thereby reducing the occurrence of severely cold conditions in the East. Although our analysis is focused on one particular region, our analysis framework is generally transferable to the physical conditions shaping different types of extreme events around the globe.

Recent and Forecasted Increases in Coccidioidomycosis Incidence Linked to Hydroclimatic Swings, California, USA

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) | March 4th, 2025

Incidence of coccidioidomycosis, an emerging infectious disease caused by Coccidioides spp. fungi, has increased dramatically since 2000. In 2023, California, USA, report

Incidence of coccidioidomycosis, an emerging infectious disease caused by Coccidioides spp. fungi, has increased dramatically since 2000. In 2023, California, USA, reported a near-record 9,054 coccidioidomycosis cases (only surpassed by 9,093 cases in 2019). During April 2023–March 2024, a period capturing the full seasonal rise and fall in incidence, California reported 10,519 cases, 39% higher than the same period the previous year. The 2023 spike in incidence might be attributable, in part, to a swing from extreme drought to heavy precipitation during winter 2022–2023. Transitions from dry to wet years have been linked to increased coccidioidomycosis incidence. Soil moisture during wet winters is hypothesized to support fungal growth, contributing to an abundance of spores available for airborne dispersal during hot, dry conditions characteristic of summer and early fall. Drought preceding rainy seasons might enhance fungal growth by eliminating microbial competitors from soils or by affecting rodent populations, a putative reservoir host and nutrient source for the fungus. During 2020–2022, California experienced severe drought. An unusually wet winter followed in 2022–2023; statewide precipitation exceeded 150% of average, among the top 10 wettest seasons in the past century. Statewide precipitation during the 2023–2024 wet season was 115% of the long-term average, marking the second consecutive wetter-than-average season after a severe drought. That pattern suggested high coccidioidomycosis incidence might continue throughout the 2024 transmission year. We developed a disease forecast to guide public health alerts and messages by pinpointing when and where disease risk is expected to be highest. Such targeted messaging can raise awareness about disease risk, leading to earlier diagnosis and more effective disease management.

Recent California Water Year Precipitation Deficits: A 440-Year Perspective

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | June 15th, 2015

An analysis of the October 2013–September 2014 precipitation in the western United States and in par- ticular over the California–Nevada region suggests this

An analysis of the October 2013–September 2014 precipitation in the western United States and in par- ticular over the California–Nevada region suggests this anomalously dry season, while extreme, is not un- precedented in comparison with the approximately 120-yr-long instrumental record of water year (WY; October–September) totals and in comparison with a 407-yr WY precipitation reconstruction dating back to 1571. Over this longer period, nine other years are known or estimated to have been nearly as dry or drier than WY 2014. The 3-yr deficit for WYs 2012–14, which in California exceeded the annual mean precipitation, is more extreme but also not unprecedented, occurring three other times over the past approximate 440 years in the reconstruction. WY precipitation has also been deficient on average for the past 14 years, and such a run of predominantly dry WYs is also a rare occurrence in the authors’ merged reconstructed plus instrumental period record.

Recent decreases in snow water storage in western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 22nd, 2023

Mountain snowpacks act as natural water towers, storing winter precipitation until summer months when downstream water demand is greatest. We introduce a Snow Storage Ind

Mountain snowpacks act as natural water towers, storing winter precipitation until summer months when downstream water demand is greatest. We introduce a Snow Storage Index (SSI), representing the temporal phase difference between daily precipitation and surface water inputs—sum of rainfall and snowmelt into terrestrial systems—weighted by relative magnitudes. Different from snow water equivalent or snow fraction, the SSI represents the degree to which the snowpack delays the timing and magnitude of surface water inputs relative to precipitation, a fundamental component of how snow water storage influences the hydrologic cycle. In western North America, annual SSI has decreased (p 

Recent global decline in endorheic basin water storages

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 30th, 2018

Endorheic (hydrologically landlocked) basins spatially concur with arid/semi-arid climates. Given limited precipitation but high potential evaporation, their water storag

Endorheic (hydrologically landlocked) basins spatially concur with arid/semi-arid climates. Given limited precipitation but high potential evaporation, their water storage is vulnerable to subtle flux perturbations, which are exacerbated by global warming and human activities. Increasing regional evidence suggests a probably recent net decline in endorheic water storage, but this remains unquantified at a global scale. By integrating satellite observations and hydrological modelling, we reveal that during 2002–2016 the global endorheic system experienced a widespread water loss of about 106.3 Gt yr−1, attributed to comparable losses in surface water, soil moisture and groundwater. This decadal decline, disparate from water storage fluctuations in exorheic basins, appears less sensitive to El Niño–Southern Oscillation-driven climate variability, which implies a possible response to longer-term climate conditions and human water management. In the mass-conserved hydrosphere, such an endorheic water loss not only exacerbates local water stress, but also imposes excess water on exorheic basins, leading to a potential sea level rise that matches the contribution of nearly half of the land glacier retreat (excluding Greenland and Antarctica). Given these dual ramifications, we suggest the necessity for long-term monitoring of water storage variation in the global endorheic system and the inclusion of its net contribution to future sea level budgeting.