Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 12th, 2015

This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase

This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, with fractional increases between 50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.

Early warnings and emerging accountability: Total’s responses to global warming, 1971–2021

Global Environmental Change (Elsevier) | November 29th, 2021

Building upon recent work on other major fossil fuel companies, we report new archival research and primary source interviews describing how Total responded to evolving c

Building upon recent work on other major fossil fuel companies, we report new archival research and primary source interviews describing how Total responded to evolving climate science and policy in the last 50 years. We show that Total personnel received warnings of the potential for catastrophic global warming from its products by 1971, became more fully informed of the issue in the 1980s, began promoting doubt regarding the scientific basis for global warming by the late 1980s, and ultimately settled on a position in the late 1990s of publicly accepting climate science while promoting policy delay or policies peripheral to fossil fuel control. Additionally, we find that Exxon, through the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA), coordinated an international campaign to dispute climate science and weaken international climate policy, beginning in the 1980s. This represents one of the first longitudinal studies of a major fossil fuel company’s responses to global warming to the present, describing historical stages of awareness, preparation, denial, and delay.

Earth’s clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | December 19th, 2024

For more than 20 years, NASA instruments in space have tracked a growing imbalance in Earth’s solar energy budget, with more energy entering than leaving the planet. Mu

For more than 20 years, NASA instruments in space have tracked a growing imbalance in Earth’s solar energy budget, with more energy entering than leaving the planet. Much of that imbalance can be pinned on humanity’s greenhouse gases emissions, which trap heat in the atmosphere. But explaining the rest has been a challenge. The loss of reflective ice, exposing darker ground and water that absorb more heat, isn’t enough to explain the deficit, and the decline in light-reflecting hazes as countries clean up or close polluting industry falls short as well. “Nobody can get a number that’s even close,” says George Tselioudis, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2023

Ecological winners and losers of extreme drought in California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 20th, 2018

An unprecedented era of climatic volatility is altering ecosystems across our planet. The potential scale, pace and consequences of this global change have been m

An unprecedented era of climatic volatility is altering ecosystems across our planet. The potential scale, pace and consequences of this global change have been modelled extensively, yet little empirical research has quantified the impacts of extreme climate events on the composition of contemporary ecological communities. Here, we quantified the responses of 423 sympatric species of plants, arthropods, birds, reptiles and mammals to California’s drought of 2012–2015—the driest period in the past 1,200 years for this global biodiversity hotspot. Plants were most responsive to one-year water deficits, whereas vertebrates responded to longer-term deficits, and extended drought had the greatest impact on carnivorous animals. Locally rare species were more likely to increase in numbers and abundant species were more likely to decline in response to drought, and this negative density dependence was remarkably consistent across taxa and drought durations. Our system-wide analysis reveals that droughts indirectly promote the long-term persistence of rare species by stressing dominant species throughout the food web. These findings highlight processes that shape community structure in highly variable environments and provide insights into whole-community responses to modern climate volatility.

Economic and Environmental Implications of California Crop and Livestock, Adaptation to Climate Change

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Effects of montane watershed development on vulnerability of domestic groundwater supply during drought

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | April 1st, 2020

Climate change is expected to reduce recharge to montane aquifers in the western United States, but it is unclear how this will impact groundwater resources in waters

Climate change is expected to reduce recharge to montane aquifers in the western United States, but it is unclear how this will impact groundwater resources in watersheds where intensive surface-water development has disrupted the natural hydrologic regime. To better understand sources of recharge and associated vulnerabilities of groundwater supply in this setting, we made a detailed geochemical survey of domestic wells finished in fractured bedrock throughout the Yuba and Bear River watersheds (Sierra Nevada foothills, northern California) during historic drought (2015–2016). Stable isotopes of water and noble gas recharge temperatures closely tracked atmospheric lapse rates across a broad elevation gradient (100–2000 m), indicating groundwater inputs are dominated by local precipitation that rapidly recharges fractured bedrock during the winter wet-season. However, nearly one-quarter of wells had water isotopes that were fractionated by evaporation and warm recharge temperatures, indicative of mixing with dry-season recharge by surface water. Monte Carlo mixing models suggest evaporation-impacted groundwater samples are mixtures of local rain with an average of 28% ± 13% from diverted surface water that can recharge bedrock aquifers during the dry-season by either irrigation return flow or seepage from extensive distribution infrastructure. Wells that received recharge subsidies from diverted surface water had elevated levels of nitrate and coliform bacteria compared to those replenished exclusively by local precipitation, which are more vulnerable to supply shortage during drought. It is important to consider the impacts of increased surface-water development on the quantity and quality of groundwater recharge in rapidly developing montane watersheds.

Effects of more extreme precipitation regimes on maximum seasonal snow water equivalent

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 31st, 2012

This study demonstrates how more extreme precipitation regimes (MEPR) under a changed climate might affect seasonal snow water resources.

This study demonstrates how more extreme precipitation regimes (MEPR) under a changed climate might affect seasonal snow water resources.

Effects of Sea‐Level Rise on Ground Water Flow in a Coastal Aquifer System

National Groundwater Association (NGWA) | January 29th, 2007

The effects of sea‐level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density‐dependent, three‐dimensional numerical ground w

The effects of sea‐level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density‐dependent, three‐dimensional numerical ground water flow model for a simplified hypothetical fresh water lens that is similar to shallow, coastal aquifers found along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Simulations of sea‐level rise of 2.65 mm/year from 1929 to 2050 resulted in an increase in water levels relative to a fixed datum, yet a net decrease in water levels relative to the increased sea‐level position. The net decrease in water levels was much greater near a gaining stream than farther from the stream. The difference in the change in water levels is attributed to the dampening effect of the stream on water level changes in response to sea‐level rise. In response to the decreased water level altitudes relative to local sea level, the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface decreased. This reduction in the thickness of the fresh water lens varied throughout the aquifer and was greatly affected by proximity to a ground water fed stream and whether the stream was tidally influenced. Away from the stream, the thickness of the fresh water lens decreased by about 2% from 1929 to 2050, whereas the fresh water lens thickness decreased by about 22% to 31% for the same period near the stream, depending on whether the stream was tidally influenced. The difference in the change in the fresh water/salt water interface position is controlled by the difference in the net decline in water levels relative to local sea level.

Effects of Snow Water Storage on Hydrologic Partitioning Across the Mountainous, Western United States

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 12th, 2023

The retention of snow water storage and subsequent release of stored water in summer months resulted in increased hydrologic partitioning to streamflow. If the Snow Stora

The retention of snow water storage and subsequent release of stored water in summer months resulted in increased hydrologic partitioning to streamflow. If the Snow Storage Index (SSI) decreases with future warming, the volume of water partitioned streamflow will decrease non-uniformly across the western U.S. with substantial implications for ecosystemsand agricultural, industrial, and domestic water supplies.