Water and the Future of the San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | February 14th, 2019

The San Joaquin Valley—California’s largest agricultural region and an important contributor to the nation’s food supply—is in a time of great change. The valle

The San Joaquin Valley—California’s largest agricultural region and an important contributor to the nation’s food supply—is in a time of great change. The valley is ground zero for many of California’s most difficult water management problems—including groundwater overdraft, drinking water contamination, and declines in habitat and native species. Local water supplies are limited, particularly in the southern half of the region. To irrigate their crops, many farmers use water imported from the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. But in many places farmers have also relied on groundwater overdraft—pumping groundwater in excess of the rate at which it is replenished. Worsening droughts, increasing regulations to protect endangered native fishes, and growing demand by Southern California for Delta imports have compounded surface water scarcity. The state’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requires local water users to bring groundwater use to sustainable levels by the early 2040s. This will have a broad impact on valley agriculture and the regional economy in coming years—likely including some permanent idling of farmland. This report explores three key challenges facing the San Joaquin Valley and reviews the most promising approaches to address them:  Balancing water supplies and demands. To close the groundwater deficit, groundwater sustainability agencies in the valley’s overdrafted basins will have to augment supplies, reduce demands, or use some combination of these two approaches. A range of options are under consideration but they are not equally effective or practical.  Addressing groundwater quality challenges. Poor groundwater quality impairs drinking water supplies in disadvantaged rural communities, reduces long-term agricultural prosperity, and degrades ecosystems. Providing safe drinking water is an urgent priority. Over the longer term, parties will also need to manage water quantity and quality together, to take advantage of synergies and avoid unintended consequences. The necessary coordination will be challenging because the various programs addressing valley water quality issues are carried out by numerous local and regional entities, whose lines of responsibility and geographic boundaries do not neatly align.  Fostering beneficial water and land use transitions. Effectively addressing water scarcity and the resulting land use changes in the San Joaquin Valley offers opportunities to put lands coming out of production to good use—and gain “more pop per drop” from limited water resources. Multiple-benefit approaches to water and land management can enhance groundwater recharge and improve air and water quality. They can also promote healthier soils, new recreational opportunities, additional flood protection, improved habitat, and new revenue streams for private landowners engaging in conservation-oriented management. Addressing these complex and intertwined issues requires significant changes in water and land management and a major ramp-up in cooperation and coordination among a wide circle of stakeholders. Pursuing solutions that deliver multiple benefits will boost the chances of success overall. The entire region—and California as a whole—will benefit if solutions to these challenges are cost-effective and support the valley’s economy while improving public health and the natural environment.

Water availability and subsidence in California’s Central Valley

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | September 5th, 2015

California’s Central Valley covers about 52,000 square kilometers (km2) and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. More than 250 different c

California’s Central Valley covers about 52,000 square kilometers (km2) and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. More than 250 different crops are grown in the broad alluvial filled structural trough, with an estimated value exceeding $20 billion per year (Faunt 2009) (Figure 1). Central Valley agriculture depends on state and federal water systems that divert surface water, predominantly originating from Sierra Nevada snowmelt, to agricultural fields. Because the valley is semi-arid and the availability of surface water varies substantially from year to year, season to season, and from north to south, agriculture, as it grew, developed a reliance on groundwater for irrigation.

Water Partnerships between Cities and Farms in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | October 29th, 2020

The San Joaquin Valley and urban Southern California are worlds apart in many ways. Yet each face growing water challenges and a shared interest in ensuring reliable, aff

The San Joaquin Valley and urban Southern California are worlds apart in many ways. Yet each face growing water challenges and a shared interest in ensuring reliable, affordable water supplies to safeguard their people and economies. Both regions’ water futures could be more secure if they take advantage of shared water infrastructure to jointly develop and manage some water supplies.  Increasing climate volatility is heightening concerns about droughts of the future. And two major shifts in California’s water landscape have generated new opportunities for collaboration between urban and agricultural interests. For urban areas, significant declines in water demand have reduced pressure on supplies during normal and wet years for many agencies, making reliability for future droughts the primary concern. For the overdrafted San Joaquin Valley, the requirement to manage groundwater sustainably has heightened interest in expanding water supplies and underground storage.  Partnerships between Southern California cities and San Joaquin Valley farms could help alleviate groundwater overdraft in the valley while building drought resilience in Southern California. More flexible supplies can help agencies adapt to changing conditions. By coordinating the location of infrastructure investments, agencies can use partnerships to bring the water where and when it is most needed, at least cost.  This report explores a variety of solutions that could benefit both regions. For the San Joaquin Valley, we look for ways to augment water supplies to ease the transition to groundwater sustainability, while for Southern California we explore options that would increase cities’ ability to deal effectively with extended droughts. By diversifying water supplies, building connections to share water more flexibly, and preparing for the extreme events to come, such partnerships would support Governor Newsom’s Water Resilience Portfolio, and pave the way for a shared effort to make the state’s water system more resilient to a changing climate. 

Water quality for agriculture

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) | July 15th, 1985

Water Risk Hotspots for Agriculture: The Case of the Southwest United States

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) | July 14th, 2016

The Southwest United States – defined here as Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah – is a rapidly growing region that faces major water challe

The Southwest United States – defined here as Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah – is a rapidly growing region that faces major water challenges. It has the fastest growing population and one of the most economically productive regions of the United States. It is also the most arid region and is prone to long-term droughts. These dry conditions, combined with a water allocation system based on prior appropriation — whereby the “first in time” is the “first in line” to access water — generate tension between stable or declining sectors of the economy that hold the majority of the rights to water and the fast-growing sectors of the economy that have more limited water rights. The Southwest provides a case study of the challenges posed by limited water availability and some of the successful methods used to bridge the gap between water supply and demand.

Water scarcity and fish imperilment driven by beef production

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 2nd, 2020

Human consumption of freshwater is now approaching or surpassing the rate at which water sources are being naturally replenished in many regions, creating water s

Human consumption of freshwater is now approaching or surpassing the rate at which water sources are being naturally replenished in many regions, creating water shortage risks for people and ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of human water uses and their connection to water scarcity and ecological damage across the United States, identify primary causes of river dewatering and explore ways to ameliorate them. We find irrigation of cattle-feed crops to be the greatest consumer of river water in the western United States, implicating beef and dairy consumption as the leading driver of water shortages and fish imperilment in the region. We assess opportunities for alleviating water scarcity by reducing cattle-feed production, finding that temporary, rotational fallowing of irrigated feed crops can markedly reduce water shortage risks and improve ecological sustainability. Long-term water security and river ecosystem health will ultimately require Americans to consume less beef that depends on irrigated feed crops.

Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California's Central Valley

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | October 15th, 2019

California's Central Valley is one of the world's most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports from

California's Central Valley is one of the world's most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports from a vast network of reservoirs and canals as well as groundwater, which has been substantially overdrafted to support irrigation. The region has undergone a shift to perennial (tree and vine) crops in recent decades, which has increased water demand amid a series of severe droughts and emerging regulations on groundwater pumping. This study quantifies the expansion of perennial crops in the Tulare Lake Basin, the southern region of the Central Valley with limited natural water availability. A gridded crop type dataset is compiled on a 1 mi2 spatial resolution from a historical database of pesticide permits over the period 1974–2016 and validated against aggregated county-level data. This spatial dataset is then analyzed by irrigation district, the primary spatial scale at which surface water supplies are determined, to identify trends in planting decisions and agricultural water demand over time. Perennial crop acreage has nearly tripled over this period, and currently accounts for roughly 60% of planted area and 80% of annual revenue. These trends show little relationship with water availability and have been driven primarily by market demand. From this data, we focus on the increasing minimum irrigation needs each year to sustain perennial crops. Results indicate that under a range of plausible future regulations on groundwater pumping ranging from 10% to 50%, water supplies may fail to consistently meet demands, increasing losses by up to 30% of annual revenues. More broadly, the datasets developed in this work will support the development of dynamic models of the integrated water-agriculture system under uncertain climate and regulatory changes to understand the combined impacts of water supply shortages and intensifying irrigation demand.

Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California’s Central Valley

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | October 15th, 2019

California’s Central Valley is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports

California’s Central Valley is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports from a vast network of reservoirs and canals as well as groundwater, which has been substantially overdrafted to support irrigation. The region has undergone a shift to perennial (tree and vine) crops in recent decades, which has increased water demand amid a series of severe droughts and emerging regulations on groundwater pumping. This study quantifies the expansion of perennial crops in the Tulare Lake Basin, the southern region of the Central Valley with limited natural water availability. A gridded crop type dataset is compiled on a 1-square mile spatial resolution from a historical database of pesticide permits over the period 1974–2016 and validated against aggregated county-level data. This spatial dataset is then analyzed by irrigation district, the primary spatial scale at which surface water supplies are determined, to identify trends in planting decisions and agricultural water demand over time. Perennial crop acreage has nearly tripled over this period, and currently accounts for roughly 60% of planted area and 80% of annual revenue. These trends show little relationship with water availability and have been driven primarily by market demand. From this data, we focus on the increasing minimum irrigation needs each year to sustain perennial crops. Results indicate that under a range of plausible future regulations on groundwater pumping ranging from 10% to 50%, water supplies may fail to consistently meet demands, increasing losses by up to 30% of annual revenues. More broadly, the datasets developed in this work will support the development of dynamic models of the integrated water-agriculture system under uncertain climate and regulatory changes to understand the combined impacts of water supply shortages and intensifying irrigation demand.

Water to Supply the Land: Irrigated Agriculture in the Colorado River Basin

Pacific Institute | May 9th, 2013

The Colorado River, recently named America’s most endangered river, supports millions of people in the American Southwest and northwest Mexico and helps irrigate millio

The Colorado River, recently named America’s most endangered river, supports millions of people in the American Southwest and northwest Mexico and helps irrigate millions of acres of land. Yet demands on the river already exceed the river’s average supply, a situation that is projected to get worse in coming years as climate change reduces runoff at the same time that fast-growing southwest cities demand more water. Irrigated agriculture currently consumes more than 70% of the water supply within the Colorado River basin, making it critical for more efficient water use. For the first time, new research from the Pacific Institute describes the extent of irrigated agriculture throughout the seven Colorado River basin states and two additional states in Mexico, the types of crops grown, and the amount of water used to grow these crops. In addition, the new report – Water to Supply the Land: Irrigated Agriculture in the Colorado River Basin – compares several agricultural management scenarios and the potential water savings and costs associated with each. Importantly, none of the scenarios remove agricultural land from production. More than 90% of pasture and cropland in the 256,000-square-mile Colorado River Basin requires irrigation, with about 60% of the irrigated acreage devoted to pasture, alfalfa, and other forage crops used to feed cattle and horses. These forage crops consume about 5 million acre-feet per year, equivalent to a third of the river’s annual flow. Employing innovative irrigation techniques more strategically and in more places – techniques that many farmers are already using – can help ensure agriculture in the basin states continues in the face of rising demand and climate change’s projected impact on supply. Modeling a series of agricultural water management conservation strategies – including regulated deficit irrigation, crop shifting, and advanced irrigation technologies – the Pacific Institute compared potential water savings and costs associated with individual scenarios. The analysis shows considerable water savings are possible. For example, almost a million acre-feet of water may be generated by irrigating alfalfa less often (a practice known as “regulated deficit irrigation”) throughout the basin in the U.S., at an estimated base cost of approximately $81 per acre-foot. Other scenarios, such as shifting to less water-intensive crops, also yield impressive water savings with relatively low costs and without reducing the total amount of irrigated acreage in the basin. For example, replacing about 10% of the basin’s irrigated alfalfa acreage with cotton and wheat could save about 250,000 acre-feet of consumptive water use each year, with estimated base costs of less than $40 per acre-foot. Total reductions in water withdrawals and applied water would be even greater.

Water Use Across the Conterminous United States, Water Years 2010–20, Chapter D of U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 15th, 2025

Key Points An estimated average of 223,594 million gallons per day (Mgal/d; 26,179 million cubic meters per month [Mm3/mo]) were withdrawn from freshwater sources fo

Key Points An estimated average of 223,594 million gallons per day (Mgal/d; 26,179 million cubic meters per month [Mm3/mo]) were withdrawn from freshwater sources for human use for crop irrigation, public supply, and thermoelectric power across the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010–20. Including saline water, withdrawals were 244,817 Mgal/d (28,677 Mm3/mo). Average withdrawals and consumptive use (1) for CONUS crop irrigation during water years 2010–20 were 105,497 and 75,698 Mgal/d, respectively; (2) for public supply were 35,440 and 4,219 Mgal/d, respectively; and (3) for thermoelectric power from fresh water were 82,656 Mgal/d and 2,904 Mgal/d, respectively. Across the CONUS, the source of water—whether groundwater, surface water, public supply, reclaimed wastewater, or a combination thereof—typically depends on the availability of these sources and on the category of use. The water-use categories of industrial, self-supplied domestic, mining, livestock, and aquaculture together accounted for 10 percent of water withdrawals in the United States in 2015. Although a small proportion nationally, these water-use categories can be locally important. Companion chapters: U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20, Chapter A Water Supply in the Conterminous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, Water Years 2010–20, Chapter B Status of Water-Quality Conditions in the United States, 2010–20, Chapter C  Climate Change and Future Water Availability in the United States, Chapter E  Integrated Water Availability in the Conterminous United States, 2010–20, Chapter F