Economic Impacts of the 2020–22 Drought on California Agriculture

University of California, Merced (UC Merced) | November 22nd, 2022

California just ended its third consecutive year of drought, resulting in the driest three-year period in the instrumental record. Multi-year deficits in precipitation in

California just ended its third consecutive year of drought, resulting in the driest three-year period in the instrumental record. Multi-year deficits in precipitation in the state’s usually wetter northern regions have been compounded by increased crop evaporative demands, leading to water scarcity impacts to agriculture across the state. Although 2020 was a dry year, water reserves stored during the wetter years of 2017 and 2019 greatly diminished drought impacts during that year. The water outlook changed rapidly in 2021—the third driest water year on record with the highest evaporative demand. The northern regions of the state—including the Sacramento Valley, the Scott and Shasta valleys, the Pit River valleys (northern intermountain valleys), and the Russian River—faced unusually dry conditions. Drought emergency conditions in 2021 were proclaimed first in the Russian River, Scott River and Shasta River basins, which faced subsequent curtailments. Water curtailments were extended to the Sacramento Valley later in the season. Water for local agriculture, ecosystems, exports, and water quality protection in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta were compromised by low water reserves. Atmospheric rivers in October and December 2021 provided temporary drought relief for a portion of the state, but record low precipitation from January-September allowed for extreme drought conditions to reign into the 2022 water year. To overcome persistent precipitation deficits and below-average storage in major reservoirs, the state again implemented water rights curtailments and low water deliveries from the State Water Project. The US Bureau of Reclamation announced reduced Central Valley Project deliveries—including unprecedented cutbacks to senior contractors in the Sacramento Valley—and local agencies implemented cutbacks as a first tier of drought response measures. Compared with the 2021 water year, however, 2022 brought less severe water cutbacks in the San Joaquin Valley. This report provides estimates of the economic impacts to agriculture for first three years of the current drought, which began in 2020. We use a combination of climate, hydrologic, agricultural and economic models, supplemented by informal surveys of irrigation districts and remote sensing data. The study includes nearly 88% of the 8.7 million acres of irrigated crop area in the state (LandIQ, 2019) excluding idle land. Our preliminary analysis for 2020–21 (Medellín-Azuara et al. 2022), focused on the Central Valley, and also examined the Russian River basin (North Coast), and northern intermountain valleys in Siskiyou, Shasta, and Modoc counties. Here, we expanded our spatial coverage to include the Central Coast, South Coast, and Colorado River.

Economic tradeoff between domestic well impact and reduced agricultural production with groundwater drought management: Tulare County, California (USA), case study

Hydrogeology Journal (Springer) | November 8th, 2021

Formal policy analysis can aid resource management where groundwater is used intensively. Approaches for developing equitable and effective pumping allocations for drough

Formal policy analysis can aid resource management where groundwater is used intensively. Approaches for developing equitable and effective pumping allocations for drought are evaluated in the context of the 2012–2016 drought in Tulare County, California, USA. Potential economic impacts of policy alternatives on two user groups with conflicting interests are considered. Tradeoffs between losses of agricultural profit and response costs for domestic wells that run dry are estimated for various maximum groundwater depth policies. A welfare maximizing approach for identifying policies that limit depth to groundwater is evaluated and found to be ineffective because agricultural opportunity costs are much larger than domestic well costs. Adding a fee for additional drought groundwater pumping is proposed as a more impactful and balanced management policy approach. For the case study presented, a fee range of $300 to $600/acre-foot ($300–$600/1,233 m3) yielded an effective groundwater management policy for reducing domestic well impacts from drought and balancing agricultural impacts of drought with the need to replenish additional drought pumping in wetter years. Recent management policies enacted in the study area agree with this finding. These results may provide a useful perspective for analytically examining and developing groundwater management policies near the study area and elsewhere.

Effect of the South Delta Agricultural Barriers on Emigrating Juvenile Salmonids

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | November 15th, 2018

The California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) Temporary Barriers Project (TBP) is an ongoing project that installs, operates, and monitors up to four temporary ro

The California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) Temporary Barriers Project (TBP) is an ongoing project that installs, operates, and monitors up to four temporary rock-fill barriers constructed in waterways located in the southern portion of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) near the cities of Tracy and Lathrop in San Joaquin County, California (Figure 1-1). Three of the temporary barriers—Old River at Tracy (ORTB), Middle River (MRB), and Grant Line Canal (GLCB), collectively, the south Delta agricultural barriers (SDABs)—are constructed and operated during the agricultural irrigation season, usually April through November. The SDABs are designed to act as flow control structures, retaining tidal fresh water behind each barrier following a flood tide. The fourth barrier, Head of Old River Barrier (HORB), is installed during the spring and fall as a fish guidance barrier. The HORB is normally installed in the spring to prevent juvenile fall-run San Joaquin River Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and juvenile Central Valley steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) 2 from emigrating through Old River toward the south Delta water export facilities at the intakes of the State Water Project (SWP) and federal Central Valley Project (CVP). In the fall, the HORB helps to guide adult San Joaquin River Chinook Salmon to spawning locations in the upper watershed. Installation, operation, and removal of the SDABs has the potential to harm, harass, or cause mortality to fish species of management concern to the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), specifically, juvenile fall-run Chinook Salmon which are NMFS Species of Concern (NMFS 2010), juvenile Central Valley steelhead which is a threatened species, an Endangered Species Act (ESA) Section 10j experimental population (63 Federal Register [FR] 13347), and juvenile Green Sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris), also a federally listed threatened species (71 FR 17757). The TBP is implemented in compliance with the terms and conditions of two NMFS Biological Opinions (BiOp) (NMFS 2008, 2009).

Effects of the South Delta Agricultural Barriers on Emigrating Juvenile Salmonids

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | November 28th, 2018

The TBP is implemented in compliance with the terms and conditions of two NMFS Biological Opinions (BiOp) (NMFS 2008, 2009). To comply with the requirements of the NMFS

The TBP is implemented in compliance with the terms and conditions of two NMFS Biological Opinions (BiOp) (NMFS 2008, 2009). To comply with the requirements of the NMFS BiOps, a study of the effects of the three SDABs (i.e., ORTB, MRB, and GLCB) on emigrating (i.e., out-migrating) juvenile salmonids was conducted (2010–2011) and the results are reported in this document. There were four effects considered in this study: 1) survival of juvenile salmonids (Ŝ); 2) juvenile salmonid time-in-vicinity (TIV) of a barrier; 3) predation on juvenile salmonids; and 4) predatory fish density evaluations near the barriers before-, during-, and after- construction during each study year. For one barrier, the ORTB, two-dimensional (2D) acoustic fish tracks for juvenile salmonids were used to evaluate: 1) the rates of successful passage through the barrier; and 2) route selection through the barrier. In addition, utilizing the ORTB 2D fish tracks for both juvenile salmonids and predatory fish, a mixture model (Romine et al. 2014) approach was employed to determine the probability that a juvenile salmonid had been eaten by a predatory fish in the vicinity of the ORTB.

Ending groundwater overdraft without affecting food security

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 14th, 2024

Environmental and anthropogenic drivers of contaminants in agricultural watersheds with implications for land management

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | February 17th, 2021

Evaluating the hydrologic effects of the 2021–2022 Scott and Shasta irrigation curtailments using remote sensing and streamflow gages

Klamath Tribal Water Quality Consortium | September 11th, 2023

Key Points • Satellite remote sensing data indicated that curtailment orders in 2022 reduced consumptive water use (evapotranspiration, ETa) on agricultural lands i

Key Points • Satellite remote sensing data indicated that curtailment orders in 2022 reduced consumptive water use (evapotranspiration, ETa) on agricultural lands in Shasta Valley, but not Scott Valley. • Streamflow gage data indicate that flows in the Shasta River and some Scott River tributaries (Shackleford and French creeks) were substantially higher in summer 2022 than 2020 or 2021, but similar increases did not occur in the mainstem Scott River. • A likely major reason for the lack of Scott River flow increases was that groundwater use was allowed to continue under Local Cooperative Solutions (LCS) agreements in which water users agreed to reduce pumping by 30% from a prior year baseline. Despite abundant worldwide evidence that reducing consumptive use (i.e., evapotranspiration) is key to increasing environmental water, all LCS cropping and irrigation practices were given equal weight toward the 30% reduction, regardless of the effects on consumptive use. Pumping was not measured and compliance was primarily self-reported, with limited independent verification.

Executive Order N-4-23

State of California | March 10th, 2023

Exploring the Potential for Water-Limited Agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | July 21st, 2022

The rollout of California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is altering the state’s agricultural landscape. As groundwater sustainability measures are

The rollout of California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is altering the state’s agricultural landscape. As groundwater sustainability measures are implemented and water scarcity increases, at least half a million acres are projected to come out of irrigated production in the San Joaquin Valley, the state’s agricultural heartland. Rather than widespread land idling—which comes with unintended consequences such as dust, weeds, pests, and soil degradation — a switch from summer irrigated crops to winter crops produced with limited water (including winter cereals and forage crops, among others) might keep some of this land in production. Although water-limited agriculture faces large hurdles, some promising aspects warrant further exploration.

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 24th, 2025