Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 2nd, 2007

Some of the earliest unequivocal signs of climate change have been the warming of the air and ocean, thawing of land and melting of ice in the Arctic. But recent studies

Some of the earliest unequivocal signs of climate change have been the warming of the air and ocean, thawing of land and melting of ice in the Arctic. But recent studies are showing that the tropics are also changing. Several lines of evidence show that over the past few decades the tropical belt has expanded. This expansion has potentially important implications for subtropical societies and may lead to profound changes in the global climate system. Most importantly, poleward movement of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, such as jet streams and storm tracks, could result in shifts in precipitation patterns affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. The implications of the expansion for stratospheric circulation and the distribution of ozone in the atmosphere are as yet poorly understood. The observed recent rate of expansion is greater than climate model projections of expansion over the twenty-first century, which suggests that there is still much to be learned about this aspect of global climate change.

Wildfire Induces Changes in Receiving Waters: A Review With Considerations for Water Quality Management

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 15th, 2022

Wildfires have increased in frequency in many ecosystems, with implications for human health and the environment, including water quality. Increased fire frequency and ur

Wildfires have increased in frequency in many ecosystems, with implications for human health and the environment, including water quality. Increased fire frequency and urbanization also raise the prospect of fires burning into urban areas, mobilizing pollutants few have considered to date. As a result, water quality managers lack information to anticipate, respond to and potentially mitigate wildfire impacts. Here, we reviewed the scientific literature to assess wildfire effects on response endpoints of a conceptual model linking fire to water quality, quantifying response directionality, magnitude and duration. Physically, water yield, sediments, and temperature all increased post-fire. Chemically, nutrients, ions, organic chemicals, and metals increased in burned watersheds, sometimes by orders of magnitude over pre-fire or reference conditions. In select cases, post-fire concentrations exceeded aquatic life criteria or drinking water standards, at times even in the finished drinking water. Biological assemblages commonly declined after post-fire runoff events. The duration of effects was less than 5 yr for most endpoints (e.g., metals) on average following fire, although effects did extend 15 yr or more in some individual cases. We found only a few studies on pollutants mobilized from wildfire impacted urban areas with benzene contamination in drinking water and high metal concentrations in ash prominent exceptions. Overall, this review provides a resource for understanding wildfire impacts on water quality endpoints, with the goal of informing the response of managers and other decision makers to this growing problem.

Wildfire response to changing daily temperature extremes in California’s Sierra Nevada

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | November 17th, 2021

Burned area has increased across California, especially in the Sierra Nevada range. Recent fires there have had devasting social, economic, and ecosystem impacts. To unde

Burned area has increased across California, especially in the Sierra Nevada range. Recent fires there have had devasting social, economic, and ecosystem impacts. To understand the consequences of new extremes in fire weather, here we quantify the sensitivity of wildfire occurrence and burned area in the Sierra Nevada to daily meteorological variables during 2001–2020. We find that the likelihood of fire occurrence increases nonlinearly with daily temperature during summer, with a 1°C increase yielding a 19 to 22% increase in risk. Area burned has a similar, nonlinear sensitivity, with 1°C of warming yielding a 22 to 25% increase in risk. Solely considering changes in summer daily temperatures from climate model projections, we estimate that by the 2040s, fire number will increase by 51 ± 32%, and burned area will increase by 59 ± 33%. These trends highlight the threat posed to fire management by hotter and drier summers.

Wildfires, Floods, and Climate Variability

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) | May 10th, 2018

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how clim

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how climate information needs vary seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network. The study identifies opportunities to use climate information in fire management, including seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts at all organizational levels, to improve the targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, the positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and staffing and budgeting decisions. The second chapter analyzes National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) data to quantify the economic impacts of flooding across the western United States from 1978 to 2007. The study compares National Flood Insurance Program data to National Weather Service measures of total damages, and presents a spatial and temporal analysis of daily claims and loss data over this period. The NFIP data reveals that a small number winter-season extreme hydrologic events, covering wide spatial areas, are responsible for a large proportion of total losses. In coastal southern California and across the southwest, El Niño conditions have had a strong effect in producing more frequent and higher magnitudes of insured losses while La Niña conditions significantly reduce both the frequency and magnitude losses. In the Pacific Northwest, the opposite pattern appears, though the effect is somewhat weaker, and less spatially coherent. The third chapter quantifies the economic impacts of flooding due to atmospheric river (AR) events in the western United States from 1978 to 2007, using NFIP claims and loss data. The study confirms that AR-related flood events cause significant economic damages and form the primary source of insurance claims and insured flood losses in the western coastal states. It provides spatial and temporal characterizations of damages as a function of integrated vapor transport (IVT) and antecedent hydrologic conditions. As the magnitude and frequency of wildfire and flood events change in response to anthropogenic climate change, and as economic and demographic contributions to vulnerability increase over time, public policy must adapt to respond. The results in these papers may be used to inform policies to mitigate losses and respond to future disaster scenarios, and may be of interest to policy makers and applied climate researchers alike.

Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | August 12th, 2022

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and out of phase with each other during the season, result- ing in distinct weather patterns that recur throughout the historical record. Some phase combinations favor atmospheric river landfalls and extreme daily or multi-day precipitation, while other phase combinations favor anomalously hot weather and drying Santa Ana wind conditions over Southern California. This historical perspective of atmospheric circulation and impacts over 70 years reveals that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances wildfire hazard in California, while the frequency of weather patterns linked to historical floods is not diminishing. These changes highlight the rising hazards of cascading weather extremes in California’s present and future.

Workshop report—Earthquakes and High Water as Levee Hazards in the Delta

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | September 30th, 2016

Earthquakes and high water as hazards to Delta levees were reviewed in a seven-hour workshop organized by the Delta Independent Science Board and held at the campus of th

Earthquakes and high water as hazards to Delta levees were reviewed in a seven-hour workshop organized by the Delta Independent Science Board and held at the campus of the University of California, Davis. Earthquake hazards in the Delta were described in terms of ground motions from Bay Area earthquakes, infrequent earthquake recurrence on faults beneath the Delta, and levee fills prone to earthquake-induced liquefaction. Large uncertainties attend all these seismic elements of levee hazard. Those uncertainties, according to presentations in the workshop, include whether the Delta ground motions previously computed for Bay Area earthquakes were too large.  Hazards from high water were deemed greatest from the confluence of high river discharge, wind-driven surge and waves, and high tides. Major risk assessments have used available data on these hazards without mandates to advance the science. Research needs and opportunities identified in the workshop include expanded observations of Delta ground motions, improved estimates of geologically recent displacement on faults beneath the Delta, further identification of liquefiable materials and mechanisms beneath levees, continued airborne measurements of land-level change, updated mapping of the contracting area of remaining peat, and fuller documentation of past levee failures. Recurring assessments of earthquake hazards and climate change provide precedents for periodic reappraisal of Delta levee risk. The workshop brought together different parts of the diverse community of Delta levee specialists. Positive responses to the workshop suggest that it served levee specialists and outsiders alike.

Workshop report—Earthquakes and High Water as Levee Hazards in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | September 30th, 2016

Yolo Bypass Salmonid Habitat Restoration and Fish Passage Final Environmental Impact Statement / Environmental Impact Report (Chapters 9-12)

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | May 1st, 2019

Yolo Bypass Salmonid Habitat Restoration and Fish Passage Final Environmental Impact Statement / Environmental Impact Report (Executive Summary)

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | May 1st, 2019

The Yolo Bypass Salmonid Habitat Restoration and Fish Passage Project (Project) Environmental Impact Statement/Environmental Impact Report (EIS/EIR) addresses methods to

The Yolo Bypass Salmonid Habitat Restoration and Fish Passage Project (Project) Environmental Impact Statement/Environmental Impact Report (EIS/EIR) addresses methods to improve fish passage and increase floodplain fisheries rearing habitat in the Yolo Bypass to benefit Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon, Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon, Central Valley steelhead, and Southern Distinct Population Segment of North American green sturgeon. The Project actions would implement Reasonable and Prudent Alternative actions I.6.1 and I.7, as described in the 2009 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Marine Fisheries Service Biological Opinion and Conference Opinion on the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project and the 2012 Yolo Bypass Salmonid Habitat Restoration and Fish Passage Implementation Plan.  This EIS/EIR has been prepared according to requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act and the California Environmental Quality Act. Direct, indirect, and cumulative impacts resulting from the project alternatives on the environment of the region are evaluated.  Full document files: Chapters 1-8 Chapters 9-12 Chapters 13-26 Appendices and drafts

Yuba-Feather FIRO Final Viability Assessment

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 14th, 2025

This Yuba-Feather Final Viability Assessment (FVA) evaluates whether improved precipitation and runoff forecasts can reduce flood risk downstream of New Bullards Bar (NBB

This Yuba-Feather Final Viability Assessment (FVA) evaluates whether improved precipitation and runoff forecasts can reduce flood risk downstream of New Bullards Bar (NBB), owned and operated by Yuba Water Agency (Yuba Water), and Lake Oroville (ORO), owned and operated by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR). These reservoirs are in the Yuba-Feather watersheds in the Sierra Nevada and eastern Sacramento Valley of Northern California (Figure ES-1 and ES-2). Each reservoirs’ flood risk reduction operations are regulated by United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) through Water Control Manuals (WCMs).  Reducing flood risk by making reservoir releases ahead of storms creates additional temporary flood storage space for anticipated inflows but requires confidence and skill in forecasted conditions.