An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 30th, 2016

Based on the satellite altimeter data, sea level off the west coast of the United States has increased over the past 5 years, while sea level in the western tropical Pac

Based on the satellite altimeter data, sea level off the west coast of the United States has increased over the past 5 years, while sea level in the western tropical Pacific has declined. Understanding whether this is a short-term shift or the beginning of a longer-term change in sea level has important implications for coastal planning efforts in the coming decades. Here, we identify and quantify the recent shift in Pacific Ocean sea level, and also seek to describe the variability in a manner consistent with recent descriptions of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and particularly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). More specifically, we extract two dominant modes of sea level variability, one related to the biennial oscillation associated with ENSO and the other representative of lower-frequency variability with a strong signal in the northern Pacific. We rely on cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis along with sea level reconstructions to describe these modes and provide historical context for the recent sea level changes observed in the Pacific. As a result, we find that a shift in sea level has occurred in the Pacific Ocean over the past few years that will likely persist in the coming years, leading to substantially higher sea level off the west coast of the United States and lower sea level in the western tropical Pacific.

Analysis of the costs and benefits of using marsh restoration as a sea level rise adaptation strategy in San Francisco Bay

Bay Institute | February 22nd, 2013

The purpose of this study is to examine opportunities to protect San Francisco Bay’s recovering tidal marsh ecosystems while helping bayshore communities to manage the

The purpose of this study is to examine opportunities to protect San Francisco Bay’s recovering tidal marsh ecosystems while helping bayshore communities to manage the impacts of sea level rise. Specifically, it considers the flood risk management functions that tidal marshes perform naturally and evaluates the possibility of integrating those functions into a co-beneficial shoreline management strategy. The study’s intended audience is planners, politicians, regulators, and other stakeholders with the authority to make or affect decisions that influence the configuration and use of the San Francisco Bay shoreline. The study examines the current functions of San Francisco Bay tidal marshes as well as existing flood risk management strategies. It considers how environmental conditions are likely to change in the era of climate change, and how we can adapt our marshes and our flood risk management practices to accommodate these changes.

Annual Report of Activities Water Year 2018 Stanislaus Operations Group (SOG)

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | November 1st, 2018

Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 22nd, 2024

Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Risk

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 15th, 2018

This study investigates temperature impacts to snowpack and runoff‐driven flood risk over the Sierra Nevada during the extremely wet year of 2016–2017, which followed

This study investigates temperature impacts to snowpack and runoff‐driven flood risk over the Sierra Nevada during the extremely wet year of 2016–2017, which followed the extraordinary California drought of 2011–2015. By perturbing near‐surface temperatures from a 9‐km dynamically downscaled simulation, a series of offline land surface model experiments explore how Sierra Nevada hydrology has already been impacted by historical anthropogenic warming and how these impacts evolve under future warming scenarios. Results show that historical warming reduced 2016–2017 Sierra Nevada snow water equivalent by 20% while increasing early‐season runoff by 30%. An additional one third to two thirds loss of snowpack is projected by the end of the century, depending on the emission scenario, with middle elevations experiencing the most significant declines. Notably, the number of days in the future with runoff exceeding 20 mm nearly doubles under a mitigation emission scenarios and triples under a business‐as‐usual scenario. A smaller snow‐to‐rain ratio, as opposed to increased snowmelt, is found to be the primary mechanism of temperature impacts to Sierra snowpack and runoff. These findings are consequential to the prevalence of early‐season floods in the Sierra Nevada. In the Feather River Watershed, historical warming increased runoff by over one third during the period of heaviest precipitation in February 2017. This suggests that historical anthropogenic warming may have exacerbated runoff conditions underlying the Oroville Dam spillway overflow that occurred in this month. As warming continues in the future, the potential for runoff‐based flood risk may rise even higher.

Anticipating Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of Extreme Storms: ARkStorm Scenario

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | July 22nd, 2015

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and e

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

Aquifer Recharge from the 1969 and 1978 Floods in the Mojave River Basin, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 15th, 1980

ARTMIP-early start comparison of atmospheric river detection tools: how many atmospheric rivers hit northern California’s Russian River watershed?

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | September 10th, 2018

Many atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) have now been developed. However, their relative performance is not well documented. This paper compares a diverse set of A

Many atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) have now been developed. However, their relative performance is not well documented. This paper compares a diverse set of ARDTs by applying them to a single location where a unique 12-year-long time-series from an atmospheric river observatory at Bodega Bay, California is available. The study quantifies the sensitivity of the diagnosed number, duration, and intensity of ARs at this location to the choice of ARDT, and to the choice of reanalysis data set. The ARDTs compared here represent a range of methods that vary in their use of different variables, fixed vs. percentile-based thresholds, geometric shape requirements, Eulerian vs. Lagrangian approaches, and reanalyses. The ARDTs were evaluated first using the datasets documented in their initial publication, which found an average annual count of 19 ± 7. Applying the ARDTs to the same reanalysis dataset yields an average annual count of 19 ± 4. Applying a single ARDT to three reanalyses of varying grid sizes (0.5°, 1.0°–2.5°) showed little sensitivity to the choice of reanalysis. While the annual average AR event count varied by about a factor of two (10–25 per year) depending on the ARDT, average AR duration and maximum intensity varied by less than ± 10%, i.e., 24 ± 2 h duration; 458 ± 44 kg m− 1 s− 1maximum IVT. ARDTs that use a much higher threshold for integrated vapor transport were compared separately, and yielded just 1–2 ARs annually on average. Generally, ARDTs that include either more stringent geometric criteria or higher thresholds identified the fewest AR events.

Assessing Causes and Consequences of Winter Surface Water Dynamics in California's Central Valley Using Satellite Remote Sensing

Wiley Online Library | June 3rd, 2025

California's Central Valley is increasingly vulnerable to winter floods. A comprehensive spatial baseline of flood extents is critical for inundation analyses that can en

California's Central Valley is increasingly vulnerable to winter floods. A comprehensive spatial baseline of flood extents is critical for inundation analyses that can enhance future flood predictions, but cloud cover has prevented the regular observation of surface water extents with optical satellite imagery. In this study, we leveraged the daily resolution of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data to create a continuous series of monthly Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWEmod) images across the Central Valley from January 2003 to January 2023. We used the timeseries to assess the climatic driving forces of winter (Oct–April) surface water variability at sub-basin and pixel scales. At the sub-basin scale, we evaluated the influences of winter precipitation, occurrence of atmospheric rivers, and antecedent soil moisture on monthly surface water extents and found that the greatest correspondence occurs in mid-winter (Dec–Feb); in contrast, non-precipitation drivers such as water management play a stronger role in autumn and spring. The pixel-level analysis identified the probabilities of precipitation-driven surface water occurrences in the Sacramento basin are highest along rivers, conveyance channels, and floodways, with higher probabilities under wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions. Precipitation-driven surface water occurrences are also common in leveed areas and outside flood boundaries designated by state and federal agencies where exposure of structures to inundation was larger in terms of their value. Finally, areas with more frequent precipitation-driven flooding have poor recharge potential but are commonly within 5 km of areas classified as having good potential. This study demonstrates a novel approach for exploring the utility of MODIS for understanding surface water dynamics in mid-winter, a period characterized by peak precipitation, flood risk, and surface water extent. This information can provide valuable insights for (1) assessing flood risks for infrastructure and populations, (2) identifying areas most suited to strategic water management investments to increase recharge, and (3) analyzing precipitation thresholds that trigger flooding to allow proactive water management strategies to minimize damage and maximize recharge.

Assessing the climate‐scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 3rd, 2017

We have created a new seven‐decade‐long catalog of atmospheric river behavior land‐falling upon the west coast of North America. The catalog has been validated agai

We have created a new seven‐decade‐long catalog of atmospheric river behavior land‐falling upon the west coast of North America. The catalog has been validated against independent precipitation observations to ensure that the atmospheric rivers represented therein are associated with extreme orographic precipitation. Our results clearly delineate a prominent role for atmospheric rivers in California's hydroclimate. Atmospheric river variability has been particularly important in the recent California drought as well as its most recent lapse. We also detect a long‐term increasing trend in water vapor transport impinging on the west coast of North America associated with atmospheric rivers and overall wintertime water vapor transport associated with climate warming. Our results, moreover, suggest that potential predictability of seasonal behavior of atmospheric rivers may hinge on sources of climatic variability somewhat different from that of total water vapor transport.