The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 17th, 2022

Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region h

Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region has not significantly changed. Yet how fire regime will respond to future anthropogenic climate change remains an important question. Here, we estimate wildfire probability in southern California at station scale and daily resolution using random forest algorithms and downscaled earth system model simulations. We project that large fire days will increase from 36 days/year during 1970–1999 to 58 days/year under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP4.5) and 71 days/year by 2070–2099 under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The large fire season will be more intense and have an earlier onset and delayed end. Our findings suggest that despite the lack of a contemporary trend in fire regime, projected greenhouse gas emissions will substantially increase the fire danger in southern California by 2099.

The Seasonal Cycle of Surface Soil Moisture

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | June 29th, 2022

The seasonal cycle contributes substantially to soil moisture temporal variability in many parts of the world, with important implications for seasonal forecasting releva

The seasonal cycle contributes substantially to soil moisture temporal variability in many parts of the world, with important implications for seasonal forecasting relevant to agriculture and the health of humans and ecosystems. There is considerable spatial variability in the seasonal cycle of soil moisture, yet a lack of global observations has hindered the development of parsimonious theories explaining that variability. Here, we use 6 years of global satellite observations to describe and explain the seasonal cycle of surface soil moisture globally. An unsupervised clustering algorithm is used to identify five distinct seasonal cycle regimes. Each seasonal cycle regime typically arises in both hemispheres, on multiple continents, and across substantially different local climates. To explain this spatial variability, we then show that the observed seasonal cycle regimes are reproduced very well by a simple but physically based water balance model, which only uses precipitation and downwelling surface shortwave radiation as inputs, and includes no free parameters. Surprisingly, no information on vegetation or land cover is required. To our knowledge, this is the first characterization of the seasonal cycle of surface soil moisture based on global observations.

The Uneven Nature of Daily Precipitation and Its Change

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 19th, 2018

Rain falls unevenly in time, which can lead to floods and droughts. It is widely known that precipitation is uneven, but it is difficult to quantify. Here we develop a me

Rain falls unevenly in time, which can lead to floods and droughts. It is widely known that precipitation is uneven, but it is difficult to quantify. Here we develop a measure for the unevenness of precipitation: the number of the wettest days each year in which half of the annual rain falls. We apply this to rain observed by gauges around the world. At all gauges combined, it takes only 12 days each year for half of the rain to fall. We also apply the measure to climate model simulations, with projections for the rest of the century. In the climate model simulations, the change in future rainfall is even more uneven than rainfall today: In a scenario with high greenhouse‐gas emissions, half of the increase in rainfall happens in the wettest 6 days each year. Rather than assuming more rain in general, society needs to take measures to deal with little change most of the time and a handful of events with much more rain.

The value of marsh restoration for flood risk reduction in an urban estuary

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 21st, 2024

Topobathymetric Model for the Central Coast of California, 1929 to 2017

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 2nd, 2018

To support the modeling of storm-induced flooding, the USGS Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project has created an integrated 1-meter topobathyme

To support the modeling of storm-induced flooding, the USGS Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project has created an integrated 1-meter topobathymetric digital elevation model (TBDEM) for the Central California Coast. High-resolution coastal elevation data is required to identify flood, hurricane, and sea-level rise inundation hazard zones and other earth science applications, such as the development of sediment transport and storm surge models. The new TBDEM consists of the best available multi-source topographic and bathymetric elevation data for the onshore and offshore areas in Central California. The Central California TBDEM integrates 70 different topographic and bathymetric data sources including LiDAR point clouds, hydrographic surveys, single-beam acoustic surveys, and multi-beam acoustic surveys obtained from USGS, NOAA, and USACE. The topographic and bathymetric surveys were sorted and prioritized based on survey date, accuracy, spatial distribution, and point density to develop a model based on the best available elevation data. Because bathymetric data are typically referenced to tidal datums (such as Mean High Water or Mean Low Water), all tidally-referenced heights were transformed into orthometric heights that are normally used for mapping elevation on land (based on the North American Vertical Datum of 1988). The spatial resolution is 1-meter with the general location ranging from Point Conception to the Golden Gate Bridge, and extending offshore to a depth of at least 15 meters. The overall temporal range of the input topography and bathymetry is 1929 to 2017. The topography surveys are from 2008-2015. The majority of the bathymetry is from 1996-2011. Some of the nearshore void zone (not covered by lidar or multibeam) was filled with NOS surveys dating back as far as 1929.

Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 30th, 2019

Society's progress along the four corners of prepare, adsorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and

Society's progress along the four corners of prepare, adsorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and a growing sense that urgent action is needed. The resilience vignettes describe the meaning and impact of current and near‐term change in four major domains: human health impacts from air pollution, coastal inundation from sea‐level rise, damaging earthquakes in populated areas, and impacts from extreme precipitation. Given our understanding of the scientific principles, societal action, from preparation to adaption, will be critical in minimizing the negative impacts of today's changes. The unprecedented rates of change in today's Earth system argue for urgent action in support of a resilient global society.

Toward Natural Infrastructure to Manage Shoreline Change in California

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Flooding and erosion caused by rising sea levels and powerful storms threaten property throughout coastal California. To protect against these climate-change related thr

Flooding and erosion caused by rising sea levels and powerful storms threaten property throughout coastal California. To protect against these climate-change related threats, landowners will certainly take action, and the default industry standard response has been to try to “hold the line” against the encroaching sea by constructing seawalls, dikes, levees and other forms of coastal armoring. While armoring may in some cases provide acceptable short-term protection, armoring also tends to accelerate shoreline erosion, exacerbating hazards to people and leading to the eventual loss of critical wildlife habitat and public beaches. Natural Shoreline Infrastructure can be as effective as armoring, while having the added benefits of preserving coastal habitat and public access. Recognizing this, California agencies have mandated that decision-makers prioritize its use in planning and investment decisions. Yet, planners have encountered many stumbling blocks as they have tried to incorporate these approaches into coastal resilience plans. Major obstacles include: a lack of a common definition and shared terminology; lack of expertise; lack of precedent; and the absence of siting guidance and technical design standards. Here, we set out to enable planners to adopt Natural Shoreline Infrastructure by filling in the missing information. With the input of dozens of coastal managers who served on our Technical Advisory Committee, we developed a definition and collected a list of case studies where Natural Shoreline Infrastructure has already been successfully deployed in California. Drawing from these and other projects, we collected into one place the first detailed technical guidance for implementation, including siting criteria and design thresholds. These criteria inform decisions about where and when to use six types of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure (e.g. sand dunes, seagrass beds). Using Monterey Bay and Ventura County projects as examples, we demonstrate how to use the technical guidance in tandem with spatial data to match a particular shoreline environment with appropriate Natural Shoreline Infrastructure options, creating “blueprints” for action. The information in this report is intended to facilitate the use of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure along California’s coast, improving the resilience of communities and habitats in the face of climate change.

Tracking California’s striking water storage gains attributed to intensive atmospheric rivers

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | February 5th, 2025

California is highly vulnerable to extreme precipitation events due to the dense landfall of atmospheric rivers (ARs) during the winter months, often resulting in catastr

California is highly vulnerable to extreme precipitation events due to the dense landfall of atmospheric rivers (ARs) during the winter months, often resulting in catastrophic consequences such as widespread floods, mudslides, and landslides. This study focuses on the recovery of daily variations in AR-driven terrestrial water storage (TWS), which produces geodetically detectable ground subsidence. We invert GNSS vertical positions to obtain daily estimates of equivalent water height (EWH) through a variational Bayesian principal component analysis (vbPCA) based inversion scheme and track significant water gains during record-setting winter months in four water years (WYs) 2011, 2017, 2019, and 2023. These precipitation extremes have resulted in a substantial short-term increase in water storage, as evidenced by the multi-source EWH datasets (GNSS, GRACE, and NLDAS). Notably, WY 2023 experienced the highest snowfall due to the landfalls of high-density, high-category ARs, while WY 2017 recorded the highest precipitation totals, driven by the most frequent occurrence of hazardous ARs. Our findings further highlight that GNSS can accurately detect exceptionally wet hydrological events on short time scales, benefiting from an improved signal-to-noise ratio due to substantial increase in water storage. The results also indicate that while these extreme water years can help alleviate surface subsidence in the Central Valley caused by groundwater overexploitation, it is insufficient to alter California’s heavy reliance on groundwater for its intensive agricultural activities. Our findings demonstrate that GNSS is successful in tracking prodigious water increases from short-term precipitation extremes that are weaker than powerful hurricanes, illuminating the prospect of GNSS in supporting water management and flood preparedness.

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | April 1st, 2016

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northe

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949–2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949–2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially non-uniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012–2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California’s most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years.

Trends in Snowfall versus Rainfall in the Western United States

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 15th, 2006

The water resources of the western United States depend heavily on snowpack to store part of the wintertime precipitation into the drier summer months. A well-documented

The water resources of the western United States depend heavily on snowpack to store part of the wintertime precipitation into the drier summer months. A well-documented shift toward earlier runoff in recent decades has been attributed to 1) more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow and 2) earlier snowmelt. The present study addresses the former, documenting a regional trend toward smaller ratios of winter-total snowfall water equivalent (SFE) to winter-total precipitation (P) during the period 1949–2004. The trends toward reduced SFE are a response to warming across the region, with the most significant reductions occurring where winter wet-day minimum temperatures, averaged over the study period, were warmer than 5°C. Most SFE reductions were associated with winter wet-day temperature increases between 0° and 3°C over the study period. Warmings larger than this occurred mainly at sites where the mean temperatures were cool enough that the precipitation form was less susceptible to warming trends. The trends toward reduced SFE/P ratios were most pronounced in March regionwide and in January near the West Coast, corresponding to widespread warming in these months. While mean temperatures in March were sufficiently high to allow the warming trend to produce SFE/P declines across the study region, mean January temperatures were cooler, with the result that January SFE/P impacts were restricted to the lower elevations near the West Coast. Extending the analysis back to 1920 shows that although the trends presented here may be partially attributable to interdecadal climate variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation, they also appear to result from still longer-term climate shifts.