Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | December 16th, 2020

Community Exposure to Tsunami Hazards in California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | February 20th, 2013

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potenti

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone.  The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic data from Infogroup (2011), including 168,565 employees (2 percent of the 20-county labor force) at 15,335 businesses that generate approximately $30 billion in annual sales. Although the regional percentage of at-risk employees is low, certain communities, such as Belvedere, Alameda, and Crescent City, have high percentages of their local workforce in the tsunami-inundation zone. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are primarily in businesses associated with tourism (for example, accommodations, food services, and retail trade) and shipping (for example, transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, and wholesale trade), although the dominance of these sectors varies substantially among the 94 cities.  Although the number of occupants is not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone contains numerous dependent-population facilities, such as schools and child daycare centers, which may have individuals with limited mobility. The tsunami-inundation zone includes a substantial number of facilities that provide community services, such as banks, religious organizations, and grocery stores, where local residents may be unaware of evacuation procedures if previous awareness efforts focused on home preparedness. There are also numerous recreational areas in the tsunami-inundation zone, such as amusement parks, marinas, city and county beaches, and State and national parks, which attract visitors who may not be aware of tsunami hazards or evacuation procedures. During peak summer months, estimated daily attendance at city and county beaches can be approximately six times larger than the total number of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone.  Community exposure to tsunamis in California varies considerably—some communities may experience great losses that reflect only a small part of their community and others may experience relatively small losses that devastate them. Among 94 incorporated communities and the remaining unincorporated areas of the 20 coastal counties, the communities of Alameda, Oakland, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Huntington Beach, and San Diego have the highest number of people and businesses in the tsunami-inundation zone. The communities of Belvedere, Alameda, Crescent City, Emeryville, Seal Beach, and Sausalito have the highest percentages of people and businesses in this zone. On the basis of a composite index, the cities of Alameda, Belvedere, Crescent City, Emeryville, Oakland, and Long Beach have the highest combinations of the number and percentage of people and businesses in tsunami-prone areas.

Compilation of 2018 Delta Levee Five-Year Plan Data

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 14th, 2024

Information provided in the Plans of the participating 74 Levee Maintaining Agencies (LMAs) include the level of protection of the LMAS' levee system at the time of the c

Information provided in the Plans of the participating 74 Levee Maintaining Agencies (LMAs) include the level of protection of the LMAS' levee system at the time of the creation of the Plans, the proposed work within the next five years to bring the LMAS' levee system to their desired level of protection, and a summary of the cost related to the proposed work. Proposed work includes multi-benefit projects, levee projects to meet a desired level of protection, studies, emergency planning, habitat enhancement projects, and additional protection. Also in this report is a summary of the LMAs’ 2009 five-Year plans, which were submitted to DWR in accordance with the Delta Levees Special Flood Control Projects Program 2009 Five-Year Plan Solicitation.

Concepts and evolution of urban hydrology

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 24th, 2024

Considerations for Management of the Mouth State of California’s Bar-built Estuaries

Southern California Wetlands Recovery Project | January 10th, 2019

Bar-built estuaries are the dominant estuary type in California, and many of these small estuaries are subject to closure with a sand barrier separating a lagoon

Bar-built estuaries are the dominant estuary type in California, and many of these small estuaries are subject to closure with a sand barrier separating a lagoon estuary from the ocean for days, months or even years. In the lagoon impounded behind the sand barrier, water levels may rise or fall depending on net water budget and water quality extremes may develop. These conditions and the obstruction of fish passage motivate managed breaching of the sand barrier in many systems statewide – an intervention that alleviates or preempts environmental problems, but which also can result in undesirable secondary impacts due to the acute effect of a single breach or the chronic effect of repeated breaching over years. Management decisions are based on an implicit trade-off between anticipated benefits and costs that depend on the values and priorities of stakeholders. This report was written to provide an overview of considerations for managed breaching in California. It presents a synthesis of processes and phenomena related to mouth closure and breaching in general and uses this to identify potential impacts of breaching, without intending any judgment of which impacts are more or less desirable. Three specific systems are reviewed in detail: Los Peñasquitos Lagoon in San Diego County, Scott Creek Estuary in San Mateo County and Russian River Estuary in Sonoma County. While there are fundamental similarities in the closure and breaching cycle across all bar-built estuaries statewide, there is also an immense diversity between these systems due to differences in size, in hydrology (wet north to dry south), and in development (rural, urban, agricultural, road/rail). The local community is likely to develop the best management strategy where there is significant effort and experience in local monitoring, science, and stakeholder consultation. However, where there is limited monitoring, science or consultation, the considerations outlined in this report provide preliminary guidance – and comparison with one of the study systems can provide more specific insight to the potential impacts of breaching management decisions. We synthesize current understanding related to how mouth state influences estuary functions and conditions, which in turn affect ecological services. While both natural and managed breaching affect many processes and phenomena in the estuary, breaching events and managed breaching regimes do not occur in isolation and many other factors affect the estuary functions and conditions, including freshwater inputs, the adjacent landscape, and stressors in the watershed. However, managed breaching is one of very few short-term management options and therefore a valuable adaptive management tool, specifically in systems that are already perturbed or impacted by human encroachment. Although emergency breaches may be required in rare occasions, our recommendation is to develop a breaching strategy for specific systems in which breaching has been used or in which it is likely to be used as a management tool. In this context, we recommend ways in which science can provide improved support for management decisions and identify a few systems in California in which there is already a well-developed, science-based management plan. Associated document: "Wetlands on the Edge: The Future of Southern California's Wetlands - Regional Strategy 2018"

Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages

Publisher not available | January 26th, 2021

Precipitation extremes have increased across many regions of the United States, with further increases anticipated in response to additional global warming. Quantifying

Precipitation extremes have increased across many regions of the United States, with further increases anticipated in response to additional global warming. Quantifying the impact of these precipitation changes on flood damages is necessary to estimate the costs of climate change. However, there is little empirical evidence linking changes in precipitation to the historically observed increase in flood losses. We use >6,600 reports of state-level flood damage to quantify the historical relationship between precipitation and flood damages in the United States. Our results show a significant, positive effect of both monthly and 5-d state-level precipitation on state-level flood damages. In addition, we find that historical precipitation changes have contributed approximately one-third of cumulative flood damages over 1988 to 2017 (primary estimate 36%; 95% CI 20 to 46%), with the cumulative impact of precipitation change totaling $73 billion (95% CI 39 to $91 billion). Further, climate models show that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased the probability of exceeding precipitation thresholds at the extremely wet quantiles that are responsible for most flood damages. Climate models project continued intensification of wet conditions over the next three decades, although a trajectory consistent with UN Paris Agreement goals significantly curbs that intensification. Taken together, our results quantify the contribution of precipitation trends to recent increases in flood damages, advance estimates of the costs associated with historical greenhouse gas emissions, and provide further evidence that lower levels of future warming are very likely to reduce financial losses relative to the current global warming trajectory.

Contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to global mean sea level trend

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 3rd, 2013

Understanding and explaining the trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) have important implications for future projections of sea level rise. While measurements from sa

Understanding and explaining the trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) have important implications for future projections of sea level rise. While measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of GMSL, the modern altimetry record has only now reached 20 years in length, making it difficult to assess the contribution of decadal to multi-decadal climate signals to the global trend. Here, we use a sea level reconstruction to study the 20 year trends in sea level since 1950. In particular, we show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) contributes significantly to the 20 year trends in GMSL. We estimate the PDO contri-bution to the GMSL trend over the past 20 years to beapproximately 0.49 ± 0.25 mm/year and find that removing the PDO contribution reduces the acceleration in GMSL estimated over the past 60 years. 

Contributions of Climate Change and ENSO Variability to Future Precipitation Extremes Over California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 14th, 2023

CVFPP Conservation Strategy Appendix A. Regulatory Setting

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 14th, 2016

Section 7.0 of the Conservation Strategy describes regional permitting efforts that are being developed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) in v

Section 7.0 of the Conservation Strategy describes regional permitting efforts that are being developed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) in various stages of implementation. This appendix provides a more thorough description of the State and federal regulatory approvals that will be required for implementation of the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP), including the Conservation Strategy.

CVFPP Conservation Strategy Appendix B. Advance Mitigation

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 14th, 2016

Section 7.0 of the Conservation Strategy presents methods for coordinating the acquisition of permits for implementation of the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFP

Section 7.0 of the Conservation Strategy presents methods for coordinating the acquisition of permits for implementation of the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP). These approaches have been initiated and are expected to be used in the future to mitigate impacts on species and habitats that result from CVFPP actions. As explained in Section 7.0, one regional permitting tool used by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) is the development of advance mitigation projects.  This appendix further describes the purpose and benefits of advance mitigation, DWR’s efforts to date, and the process for selecting the first set of advance mitigation projects that will support the CVFPP. Each advance mitigation project has been, or will be, carefully selected in collaboration with permitting agencies to mitigate the effects of activities that will be implemented by DWR and Local Maintaining Agencies in the Systemwide Planning Area (SPA). DWR and the resource agencies are continuing to develop the mechanisms for crediting and a process for tracking the credits. Future advance mitigation projects are likely to follow the same process described herein.