Ocean Climate Indicators: A Monitoring Inventory and Plan for Tracking Climate Change in the North-central California Coast and Ocean Region

Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Advisory Council | August 14th, 2014

The impacts of climate change, defined as increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide and associated increases in average global temperature and oceanic a

The impacts of climate change, defined as increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide and associated increases in average global temperature and oceanic acidity, have been observed both globally and on regional scales, such as in the North-central California coast and ocean, a region that extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the Pacific coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area. Because of the high economic and ecological value of the region’s marine environment, the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS) and other agencies and organizations have recognized the need to evaluate and plan for climate change impacts.

Ocean submesoscale fronts induce diabatic heating and convective precipitation within storms

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 30th, 2025

The intensity of atmospheric storms is influenced by ocean temperature contrasts. While mesoscale sea surface temperature anomalies ( ~ 200 km-size) are known to inte

The intensity of atmospheric storms is influenced by ocean temperature contrasts. While mesoscale sea surface temperature anomalies ( ~ 200 km-size) are known to intensify storms via latent heat release, the role of finer oceanic scales remains unknown. Using a global coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation at a km-scale resolution, we show that half of latent heat flux variability is driven by oceanic motions at the meso- ( ~ 40%) and submesoscale ( ~ 10-20 km-size,  < 10%) in the Kuroshio Extension during winter. Additionally, ocean submesoscale fronts, with temperature gradients of 5 °C per 10 km, induce a secondary circulation reaching 4 km within the troposphere, which enhances diabatic processes and convective precipitations within storms. In the warm sector of storms, ocean submesoscale fronts locally account for half the total precipitations, averaging 14 mm day−1 over five days. As such, ocean submesoscale fronts pump moisture from the ocean to the atmosphere and have the potential to affect storm intensification.

On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 23rd, 2018

The global water cycle is expected to intensify under climate change and can be generally characterized by greater rainfall and surface evaporation in the future. However

The global water cycle is expected to intensify under climate change and can be generally characterized by greater rainfall and surface evaporation in the future. However, the rate at which the globally averaged precipitation increases is highly variable among different climate models. In this paper, we relate the intermodel variability in global water cycle intensification to differences in model projections of heavy precipitation in tropical and some extratropical regions. We also find that models consistently experience a trade‐off between increasing heavy and decreasing light‐moderate precipitation: Models with larger future increases in heavy precipitation exhibit greater compensating declines in light‐moderate rainfall. Differences in heavy precipitation changes are also tied to model resolution. Our study helps to provide new insight on the factors shaping projections of future precipitation extremes, which have strong implications for water resources, natural hazard risks associated with flooding, and ecosystem stability.

On the dynamics of the Hadley circulation and subtropical drying

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | April 10th, 2014

Changes in subtropical precipitation and the Hadley circulation (HC) are inextricably linked. The original Halley–Hadley model cannot explain certain aspects of the Ear

Changes in subtropical precipitation and the Hadley circulation (HC) are inextricably linked. The original Halley–Hadley model cannot explain certain aspects of the Earth’s meridional circulation in the tropics and is of limited use in understanding regional changes in precipitation. Here, we expand on previous work on the regional and seasonal aspects of the HC, in particular how land–sea temperature contrasts contribute to the strength and width of the HC. We show that the Earth’s HC is well described by three regionally distinct cells along the eastern edges of the major ocean basins with opposite circulations elsewhere. Moreover, comparable summertime hemisphere cells emerge in each region. While it has been recognized that continents modify the meridional pressure gradient, we demonstrate that a substantial part of the Earth’s HC is driven by zonal pressure gradients (ZPGs) that only exist due to continental heating and air–sea interaction. Projected changes in land–sea temperature contrasts in a warming climate due to the relatively low thermal capacity of land will also affect ZPGs and thus HC strength and width, with implications for extremes in hydroclimate and freshwater resources across the increasingly vulnerable subtropics.

Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2025

U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) | January 3rd, 2025

This Fiscal Year 2025 edition of USGCRP’s annual report to Congress highlights advancements in science and information delivery that show how the Program is meeting nat

This Fiscal Year 2025 edition of USGCRP’s annual report to Congress highlights advancements in science and information delivery that show how the Program is meeting national needs. The Five-Year Progress section provides a longer-term look at USGCRP work on three selected topics: understanding the changing water cycle; responding to needs for climate information; and advancing diversity, equity, inclusion, justice, and accessibility across global change research efforts. We also highlight more recent activities in the 2023 Accomplishments section and look ahead to upcoming work in the Current and Future Priorities section.

Overcoming Organizational Barriers to Implementing Local Government Adaptation Strategies

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Local governments across California have taken immense strides to combat climate change. However, many local governments still face organizational barriers to comprehensi

Local governments across California have taken immense strides to combat climate change. However, many local governments still face organizational barriers to comprehensively implement climate change adaptation measures. Organizational barriers can delay and even prevent local governments from moving from adaptation planning to implementation due to the wide-reaching scope of climate change impacts. This study aims to further the understanding of the diversity of organizational barriers that California local governments experience and to develop a resource to assist local governments in their efforts to overcome these barriers to more effectively implement climate change adaptation strategies.  The research team conducted a broad literature review, an online survey, multiple regional stakeholder workshops, and focus groups to deepen the understanding of organizational barriers to adaptation in California local governments. These research inputs produced findings on organizational barriers experienced by California local government adaptation practitioners, and enabled the development and testing of the Adaptation Capability Advancement Toolkit. The Toolkit aims to help local governments rapidly assess their current capabilities to overcome organizational barriers and identify key actions and resources for increasing their organizational capability for undertaking climate change adaptation. The Toolkit is based on the Capability Maturity Model process improvement framework, and focuses on developing capabilities within four key process areas which were identified as common sources of organizational barriers: leadership and organizational culture, staffing and technical capacity, stakeholder engagement and partnerships, and operations and institutional processes. The Toolkit was tested by California local government adaptation practitioners in order to ground-truth recommendations and assess the utility of suggested actions and resources. Participants indicated that they view the resource as valuable, particularly if continuously supported. 

Past Groundwater Drought in the North American Cordillera

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 11th, 2024

Patterns and projections of high tide flooding along the U.S. coastline using a common impact threshold

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | February 1st, 2018

For forecasting purposes to ensure public safety, NOAA has established three coastal flood severity thresholds. The thresholds are based upon water level heights

For forecasting purposes to ensure public safety, NOAA has established three coastal flood severity thresholds. The thresholds are based upon water level heights empirically calibrated to NOAA tide gauge measurements from years of impact monitoring by its Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) and emergency managers. When minor (more disruptive than damaging), moderate (damaging) or major (destructive) coastal flooding is anticipated (not associated with tropical storms), NOAA issues either a flood advisory(for minor) or warning (for moderate or major). Less than half of NOAA tide gauges located along the U.S. coastline have such ‘official’ NOAA flood thresholds, and where they exist, the heights can vary substantially (e.g., 0.3–0.6 meter within minor category). They differ due to the extent of infrastructure vulnerabilities, which vary by topography and relief, land-cover types or existing flood defenses.

Paying it Forward: The Path Toward Climate-Safe Infrastructure in California

Climate-Safe Infrastructure Working Group | September 1st, 2018

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers

Global Environmental Change (Elsevier) | December 3rd, 2013

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understandin

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.