Fish die-offs are concurrent with thermal extremes in north temperate lakes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 8th, 2019

As environmental temperatures continue to rise and organisms experience novel and potentially lethal conditions, the possibility of increased mass mortality events for an

As environmental temperatures continue to rise and organisms experience novel and potentially lethal conditions, the possibility of increased mass mortality events for animal populations appears likely. Yet, due to die-off rarity and unpredictability, there have been few large-scale attempts to quantify the relationship between mass die-offs and local environmental temperatures. Here, we address this issue by analysing a database of 502 freshwater fish die-offs combined with lake-specific temperature profiles simulated for north temperate lake ecosystems. Die-offs driven by extreme summer conditions occurred disproportionately in lakes with warmer average surface temperatures and during periods of extreme heat. In contrast, we observed no relationships between current thermal extremes and die-offs attributed to infectious disease or winter environmental conditions. We forecast fish die-offs driven by summer environmental conditions to double by mid-century for north temperate lakes (2041–2059) and to increase more than fourfold by late century (2081–2099), particularly at southern latitudes. These results expose a direct link between novel temperature regimes and the increased probability of catastrophic ecological events in freshwater ecosystems.

Flood Risk and Management of California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Levee System

University of California, Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz) | September 15th, 2020

Flood Size Increases Nonlinearly Across the Western United States in Response to Lower Snow-Precipitation Ratios

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | December 20th, 2019

Many mountainous and high-latitude regions have experienced more precipitation as rain rather than snow due to warmer winter temperatures. Further decreases in the annual

Many mountainous and high-latitude regions have experienced more precipitation as rain rather than snow due to warmer winter temperatures. Further decreases in the annual snow fraction are projected under continued global warming, with potential impacts on flood risk. Here, we quantify the size of streamflow peaks in response to both seasonal and event-specific rain-fraction using stream gage observations from watersheds across the western United States. Across the study watersheds, the largest rainfall-driven streamflow peaks are >2.5 times the size of the largest snowmelt-driven peaks. Using a panel regression analysis of individual precipitation and snowmelt events, we show that the empirical streamflow response grows approximately exponentially as the liquid precipitation input increases, with rain-dominated runoff leading to proportionately larger streamflow increases than snowmelt or mixed rain-and-snow runoff. We find that the response to changes in rain percentage is largest in the wettest watersheds, where wet antecedent conditions are important for increasing runoff efficiency. Similarly, the effect of rain percentage is larger across watersheds in the Northwest and West regions compared to watersheds in the Northern Rockies and Southwest regions. Overall, as a higher percentage of precipitation falls as rain, increases in the size of rainfall-driven and “rain-on-snow”-driven floods have the potential to more than offset decreases in the size of snowmelt-driven floods.

Floods in California

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | February 29th, 2024

Fortresses of mud: how to protect the San Francisco Bay Area from rising seas

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 9th, 2018

There’s something apocalyptic about this pond on the east side of San Francisco Bay, California. The legacy of a salt industry that has moved elsewhere, it has subsided

There’s something apocalyptic about this pond on the east side of San Francisco Bay, California. The legacy of a salt industry that has moved elsewhere, it has subsided a couple of metres below the level of neighbouring marshland. Algae paints red swirls in the brown water, and the pond’s edge is crusted hard with sparkling salt. As a breeze eases off the bay, a squadron of pelicans sails by, en route to more-appetizing hunting grounds. But there is a better future ahead for landscapes like this one in the Eden Landing Ecological Reserve and elsewhere around the bay. Over the next decade, government officials plan to fill many such depressions with sediment and then open them up to the tides. Eventually, cordgrass, pickleweed and other marsh vegetation will take root, restoring this crucial marsh ecosystem. The goal is to try to create a natural buffer to protect the heavily populated waterfront, by sapping energy from storm surges and blocking the highest tides.

Fourth National Climate Assessment Chapter 3: Water

U.S. Global Change Research Program | November 23rd, 2018

Significant changes in water quantity and quality are evident across the country. These changes, which are expected to persist, present an ongoing risk to coupled human

Significant changes in water quantity and quality are evident across the country. These changes, which are expected to persist, present an ongoing risk to coupled human and natural systems and related ecosystem services. Variable precipitation and rising temperature are intensifying droughts, increasing heavy downpours, and reducing snowpack. Reduced snow-to-rain ratios are leading to significant differences between the timing of water supply and demand. Groundwater depletion is exacerbating drought risk. Surface water quality is declining as water temperature increases and more frequent high-intensity rainfall events mobilize pollutants such as sediments and nutrients. Click here for the text of the full report.

Fragmented Flows: Water Supply in Los Angeles County

Environmental Management (Springer) | May 12th, 2016

In the Los Angeles metropolitan region, nearly 100 public and private entities are formally involved in the management and distribution of potable water—a legacy rooted

In the Los Angeles metropolitan region, nearly 100 public and private entities are formally involved in the management and distribution of potable water—a legacy rooted in fragmented urban growth in the area and late 19th century convictions about local control of services. Yet, while policy debates focus on new forms of infrastructure, restructured pricing mechanisms, and other technical fixes, the complex institutional architecture of the present system has received little attention. In this paper, we trace the development of this system, describe its interconnections and disjunctures, and demonstrate the invisibility of water infrastructure in LA in multiple ways—through mapping, statistical analysis, and historical texts. Perverse blessings of past water abundance led to a complex, but less than resilient, system with users accustomed to cheap, easily accessible water. We describe the lack of transparency and accountability in the current system, as well as its shortcomings in building needed new infrastructure and instituting new water rate structures. Adapting to increasing water scarcity and likely droughts must include addressing the architecture of water management.

Fragmented kelp forest canopies retain their ability to alter local seawater chemistry

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 20th, 2020

Kelp forests support some of the most productive and diverse ecosystems on Earth, and their ability to uptake dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) allows them to modify loca

Kelp forests support some of the most productive and diverse ecosystems on Earth, and their ability to uptake dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) allows them to modify local seawater chemistry, creating gradients in carbon, pH, and oxygen in their vicinity. By taking up both bicarbonate and CO2 as a carbon source for photosynthesis, kelp forests can act as carbon sinks, reducing nearby acidity and increasing dissolved oxygen; creating conditions conducive to calcification. Recent stressors, however, have reduced kelp forest canopies globally; converting once large and persistent forests to fragmented landscapes of small kelp patches. In a two-year study, we determined whether fragmented kelp patches retained the ability to alter local seawater chemistry. We found that diel fluctuations of multiple parameters of carbonate chemistry were greater in the kelp canopy than in the kelp benthos and in adjacent urchin barrens, consistent with metabolic activity by the kelp. Further, kelp fragments increased pH and aragonite saturation and decreased pCO 2 during the day to a similar degree as large, intact kelp forests. We conclude that small kelp patches could mitigate OA stress and serve as spatial and temporal refugia for canopy-dwelling organisms, though this effect is temporary and confined to daylight hours during the growing season.

From Climate Traces to Climate Insights: Future Scenarios Analysis for the California Central Valley

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 2nd, 2023

California Water Code Section 10004.6 requires the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to quantify current and future water conditions in the state. This infor

California Water Code Section 10004.6 requires the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to quantify current and future water conditions in the state. This information is published in the California Water Plan (Water Plan), which is updated every five years. Water managers and planners constantly face the challenges of planning for an uncertain future where the only constant is change. To address the potential future changes and mitigate the probable risks, water managers must consider and quantify uncertainties and their impacts on water system vulnerability. Although it is not possible to know for certain how population growth, land use decisions, climate, and other factors change over time, water planners must consider these system stressors in long-term planning to evaluate future risks and uncertainty. The Water Plan evaluates many alternative future scenarios as an integral part of its analytical approach to quantify system vulnerability under a range of population and urban growth scenarios, land use, and climate uncertainties.

From Climate-Change Spaghetti to Climate-Change Distributions for 21st Century California

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | March 1st, 2005

The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed t

The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed to accommodate those potential changes. Projection uncertainties have typically been addressedby analysis of a few scenarios, chosen based on availability or to capture the extreme cases among available projections. However, by focusing on more com-mon projections rather than the most extreme projections (using a new resampling method), new insights into current projections emerge: (1) uncertainties associated with future greenhouse-gas emissions are comparable with the differences among climate models, so that neither source of uncertainties should be neglected or underrepresented; (2) twenty-first century temperature projections spread more, overall, than do precipitation scenarios; (3) projections of extremely wet futures for California are true outliers among current projections; and (4) current projections that are warmest tend, overall, to yield a moderately drier California, while the cooler projections yield a some-what wetter future. The resampling approach appliedin this paper also provides a natural opportunity to objectively incorporate measures of model skill and the likelihoods of various emission scenarios into future assessments.