Climate Change, Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | June 1st, 2011

Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storm

Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7‐model ensemble of historical‐climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher‐than‐historical water‐vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm‐temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood‐hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes.

Climate Change: Evaluating Your Local and Regional Water Resources

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | February 1st, 2015

Ongoing changes in climate, particularly rises in air temperature, are influencing water resources throughout the world, with shifts in the timing of precipitation, reduc

Ongoing changes in climate, particularly rises in air temperature, are influencing water resources throughout the world, with shifts in the timing of precipitation, reductions in snowpack (fig. 1), and earlier springtime snowmelt among the most important challenges to water availability (fig. 2). These changes are affecting landscapes, vegetation and animal species, and agriculture, with longer dry seasons, which also create more demand on water resources, more frequent extreme storms, fewer chilling hours, and higher snow lines. To plan for future water- and land-resource demands, resource managers have generally relied on data from global climate model projections of precipitation and air temperature trends that lack the detail needed for precision planning at regional and local scales. Recently, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed modeling tools that integrate climate data with rigorously developed regional and local environmental data to understand the hydrologic response to climate change and the effects on regional and local watersheds and landscapes.

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | August 1st, 2022

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality andmorbidity? What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

Climate information? Embedding climate futures within temporalities of California water management

Environmental Sociology (Taylor & Francis) | March 27th, 2018

This article uses the case of drinking water utility managers in California to understand uses of climate-change information in resource management. A dominant

This article uses the case of drinking water utility managers in California to understand uses of climate-change information in resource management. A dominant narrative suggests that producing management practices best adapted to climate-change impacts is a matter of reconciling the supply of scientific knowledge with the demand signals of resource managers. We question this narrative with reference to the diverse cultural and socio-technical structures in which the future climate takes on meaning in water management. Using interviews (n = 61), we analyze three ideal-typical ‘social temporalities’ of climate change: modeled futures, whose future?, and truncated futures. We define social temporalities as alternative constructions of the future built into socio-technical engagement with water and into collective orientations to climate change. Of the three ideal types, we found that only one (modeled futures) closely aligns with the supply-demand relationship as constructed in scholarly literature and climate adaptation-related policy. This leaves nonconforming types without guidance that resonates with their relationship to climate change information. Consideration of sociological dimensions of climate knowledge may warrant a revised or additional approach to climate service programs or related assistance efforts.

Climate modeling 101: Explanations without equations

Springer | January 1st, 2016

Climate scientists tell us it's going to get hotter. How much it rains and where it rains is likely to shift. Sea level rise is apt to accelerate. Oceans are on their way

Climate scientists tell us it's going to get hotter. How much it rains and where it rains is likely to shift. Sea level rise is apt to accelerate. Oceans are on their way to becoming more acidic and less oxygenated. Floods, droughts, storms, and other extreme weather events are projected to change in frequency or intensity. But how do they know what they know? For climate scientists, numerical models are the tools of the trade. But for the layperson — and even for scientists in other fields — climate models can seem mysterious. What does "numerical" even mean? Do climate models take other things besides the atmosphere into account? How do scientists know if a model is any good? * Two experts in climate modeling, Andrew Gettelman of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Richard Rood of the University of Michigan, have your answers and more, free of charge. In a new open-access book, "Demystifying Climate Models," the pair lay out the fundamentals. In 282 pages, the scientists explain the basics of climate science, how that science is translated into a climate model, and what those models can tell us (as well as what they can't) — all without using a single equation. *Find the answers on pages 8, 13, and 161, respectively, of the book.

Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for California: Legal Analysis of Barriers to Adaptation for California’s Water Sector

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

This project focused on the legal and institutional framework associated with California’s water rights allocation system, and identifies changes to that framework that

This project focused on the legal and institutional framework associated with California’s water rights allocation system, and identifies changes to that framework that would facilitate adaptation to climate change. Since such changes may be difficult to accomplish, the project focused largely, but not exclusively, on changes that may be politically feasible now or in the future. There is already conflict in California over water allocation, and climate change will exacerbate that conflict by increasing demand and decreasing supply. Adaptation will be needed both to address already unavoidable impacts from historical emissions, and to address impacts from future emissions. To identify changes that would facilitate adaptation this study looked at recent legislation, policy proposals, and white papers addressing water reform; and off?the record interviews were conducted with individuals familiar with California water law. Having an accurate record of who is diverting water in California, and in what quantity, is the single most important step towards preparing for climate change, and the recommendations reflect that. For groundwater, the changes identified would (1) expand groundwater monitoring and reporting requirements, (2) expand groundwater planning requirements, and (3) require the State Board to improve groundwater management and to prevent the waste or unreasonable use of groundwater. For surface water, the changes we identify would (1) require the State Board to provide information about efficient agricultural water management practices, and streamline State Board procedures for enforcement actions for the waste and unreasonable use of water, (2) increase the enforcement of and penalties for failing to file a Statement of Water Diversion and Use and for illegal diversions, (3) require all beneficiaries of the water rights system to bear the cost of activities related to the administration of those rights, and (4) expand reporting requirements to require diverters to state what they believe their water rights to be.

Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California

Climactic Change (Springer) | June 10th, 2010

The ability of California’s water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate

The ability of California’s water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and intertied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California’s water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California’s large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies.

Climate-Altered Wetlands Challenge Waterbird Use and Migratory Connectivity in Arid Landscapes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 15th, 2019

Wetlands in arid landscapes provide critical habitat for millions of migratory waterbirds across the world and throughout their annual cycle. The scope and scale

Wetlands in arid landscapes provide critical habitat for millions of migratory waterbirds across the world and throughout their annual cycle. The scope and scale of understanding avian use of these wetlands in conjunction with changes in climate are daunting yet critical to address lest we lose continent-wide migratory pathways. Here, we assess changes in waterbird use of North America’s Pacific Flyway in the Great Basin by examining water availability and climate trends over the past 100 years. We found recent (1980–2015) climate warming has significantly reduced the amount and shifted seasonality of water flowing into wetlands. Further, we found remarkable changes in waterbird species composition over time. We propose that a reduced hydroperiod and lower water quality from reduction in water level and flow limits sites used by waterbirds. These factors reduce chick survivorship as they cannot metabolize saline water, which makes suitable freshwater conditions a limiting resource. Collectively, climate-induced changes in Great Basin wetlands suggest a major shift in freshwater ecosystems, resulting in degradation of a continental migratory route. This work illustrates the importance of examining multi-scale changes in critical regional resources to understand their impact across a hemispheric flyway and provides a model to examine other flyways.

Climate-driven aerobic habitat loss in the California Current System

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | May 15th, 2020

Climate warming is expected to intensify hypoxia in the California Current System (CCS), threatening its diverse and productive marine ecosystem. We analyzed past region

Climate warming is expected to intensify hypoxia in the California Current System (CCS), threatening its diverse and productive marine ecosystem. We analyzed past regional variability and future changes in the Metabolic Index, a species-specific measure of the environment’s capacity to meet temperature-dependent organismal oxygen demand. Across the traits of diverse animals, exhibits strong seasonal to interdecadal variations throughout the CCS, implying that resident species already experience large fluctuations in available aerobic habitat. For a key CCS species, northern anchovy, the long-term biogeographic distribution and decadal fluctuations in abundance are both highly coherent with aerobic habitat volume. Ocean warming and oxygen loss by 2100 are projected to decrease below critical levels in 30 to 50% of anchovies’ present range, including complete loss of aerobic habitat—and thus likely extirpation—from the southern CCS. Aerobic habitat loss will vary widely across the traits of CCS taxa, disrupting ecological interactions throughout the region.

Climate-driven disturbances amplify forest drought sensitivity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2024