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Climate Change and the Delta: A Synthesis (Public Review Draft)

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | March 23rd, 2018

Summary

The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to achieve the coequal goals of providin

The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to achieve the coequal goals of providing a more reliable water supply for California and protecting, restoring, and enhancing the Delta ecosystem (Water Code Section 85000). In the time since the Plan was adopted in 2013, a significant shift in State planning for Delta ecosystem protection, restoration, and enhancement has occurred, prompting review of the Delta Plan to examine whether its strategies are still suited to achieve the ecological goals of the Delta Reform Act. As such, the Delta Stewardship Council (Council) is developing an amendment of the Plan’s Chapter 4, Protect, Restore, and Enhance the Delta Ecosystem. Council staff are reviewing the best-available science to inform amendment of Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan. To support this effort, Council staff have developed three science synthesis papers. This paper focuses on the effects of climate change in the Delta and is accompanied by two other papers focused on the Delta ecosystem (terrestrial and aquatic resources) and restoration. Climate change is of interest for the Chapter 4 amendment given recent rapid advancements in research on climate change and its effects on the Delta ecosystem that have occurred since the Delta Plan was adopted in 2013 (Dettinger et al. 2016). Climate change has the potential to significantly affect the Delta ecosystem by raising air and water temperatures, changing the timing and volume of flows into and through the Delta, increasing tidal inundation with sea-level rise (SLR), and increasing salinity intrusion into the Delta. Climate change is recognized as a global stressor in Chapter 4 of the 2013 Delta Plan, but the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems are discussed only briefly and with limited consideration of management strategies that address the issue. Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan identifies five key stressors to the Delta ecosystem and core strategies for addressing each. Climate change has interrelated effects on all five core strategy areas: Delta flows, habitat, water quality, non-native 28 species, and hatcheries and harvest management. The Delta Reform Act specifies consideration of “the future impact of climate change and sea-level rise” (Water Code Section 85066), and identifies a restoration timeline horizon of 2100 (Water Code Section 85302). More generally, Executive Order B-30-15, signed by Governor Brown in April 2015, requires that State agencies incorporate climate change into planning and investment decisions, and that they prioritize natural infrastructure and actions for climate preparedness.

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Climate Change and Water

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) | July 21st, 2008

Summary

The Technical Paper addresses the issue of freshwater. Sea-level rise is dealt with only insofar as it can lead to impacts on freshwater in coastal areas and beyond. Clim

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Climate Change and Water Supply Security: Reconfiguring Groundwater Management to Reduce Drought Vulnerability

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

Summary

Periodic droughts, projected to become more frequent and severe with climate change, present a significant planning challenge for California’s water agencies. This r

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Climate Change Characterization and Analysis in California Water Resources Planning Studies

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 23rd, 2010

Summary

California’s water resources and the hydraulic systems that have been built to manage those resources are acutely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Historica

California’s water resources and the hydraulic systems that have been built to manage those resources are acutely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Historical planning practices that assume that past observations of climate and hydrology are reasonable predictors of future conditions have been called into question because of climate change. As a result, recent water resources planning in California, as in other places around the world, involves the development of new approaches to consider possible changes in future climate and hydrology. This type of analysis is a field of study that is evolving rapidly. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) has been one of the early leaders in including climate change analysis in its planning studies and reports; however, DWR does not currently have a standard framework or a set of recommended approaches for considering climate change in its planning studies. A variety of approaches to characterize and analyze future climate have been used in various DWR planning studies. This paper surveys and summarizes the approaches and methodologies that have been used over the last four years. It is the first comprehensive comparative look at the different approaches, their strengths and weaknesses, and how they have been used in past studies. This work is anticipated to lay the groundwork for a future DWR study aimed at developing a standard framework and a consistent set of approaches to be used for characterizing and analyzing climate change in future DWR planning studies and which may provide guidance for DWR partners and grantees. This paper surveys planning studies in which DWR was the sole conducting agency and studies in which DWR participated with other agencies to develop joint documents. In the studies under way or completed since 2006, DWR generally considered future climate and hydrology change by following one of four approaches: (1) a scenario approach based on selection of a limited number of Global Climate Models simulations; (2) an ensemble-informed approach based on 112 available downscaled simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007); (3) relative change approaches that apply perturbations to historical data to simulate the potential impacts of climate change; or (4) qualitative approaches.

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Climate Change Characterization and Analysis in California Water Resources Planning Studies

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 23rd, 2010

Summary

California’s water resources and the hydraulic systems that have been built to manage those resources are acutely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Historica

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Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops: Impacts and Strategies for Resilience

California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) | January 16th, 2014

Summary

The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) convened the Climate Change Consortium, a diverse group of individuals involved in California specialty crop agri

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Climate change contributions to future atmospheric river flood damages in the western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 12th, 2022

Summary

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) generate most of the economic losses associated with flooding in the western United States and are projected to increase in intensity with climat

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Climate change decisive for Asia’s snow meltwater supply

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 24th, 2021

Summary

Streamflow in high-mountain Asia is influenced by meltwater from snow and glaciers, and determining impacts of climate change on the region’s cryosphere is essential to

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Climate Change Effects on the High-Elevation Hydropower System with Consideration of Warming Impacts on Electricity Demand and Pricing

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

Summary

While only about 30 percent of California’s usable water storage capacity lies at higher elevations, high-elevation hydropower units generate, on average, 74 percent of

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Climate Change Handbook for Regional Water Planning

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 28th, 2011

Summary

As the science of climate change quickly develops and evolves, watershed planning practitioners face the challenge of interpreting new information and discerning which me

As the science of climate change quickly develops and evolves, watershed planning practitioners face the challenge of interpreting new information and discerning which methods and approaches are more appropriate for their planning needs. This handbook offers an innovative analytical framework for incorporating climate change impacts into a regional and watershed planning process. This handbook was developed as a partnership of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 9, the California Department of Water Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers South Pacific Division, and the Resources Legacy Fund. Although this handbook is focused on the California Integrated Regional Water Management Planning (IRWMP) process, it can be used by other practitioners nationally and internationally when incorporating climate change into any watershed or water supply planning process. This handbook considers both climate change adaptation (reduction of impacts) and mitigation [greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction]. Quantitative tools and techniques for addressing both are introduced and discussed in order to prepare comprehensive IRWMPs. A guide to assess the vulnerability of a watershed or region to climate change impacts is presented in this handbook, and guidelines to prioritize vulnerabilities are introduced. This handbook relies on approaches that have been developed and applied to regional watershed planning processes. This handbook also presents case studies that provide illustrative examples in which the latest science and methods on climate change, including uncertainty and adaptive management approaches, have been applied outside academia. While the available suite of climate change tools and analytical techniques for incorporating climate change is continually advancing and improving, the underlying planning processes outlined in this handbook should continue to provide a solid basis for comprehensive watershed planning. Improved decisions about water resources management systems, whether adapting them to future climate change or mitigating climate change through reductions in GHG emissions, should result from application of the framework in this handbook. This handbook presents the range of decisions that need to be made and the factors that go into making those decisions at a local or regional level. During implementation of the decision support framework that is presented in this handbook, planners must consider the suite of available tools and the abilities and resources available to the regional/watershed planning group. The long-term goal of this handbook is to serve as a foundation for a thoughtful planning process for incorporating climate change impacts into IRWMPs and other regional and watershed management planning processes.

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Climate Change and the Delta: A Synthesis (Public Review Draft)

Climate Change and Water

Climate Change and Water Supply Security: Reconfiguring Groundwater Management to Reduce Drought Vulnerability

Climate Change Characterization and Analysis in California Water Resources Planning Studies

Climate Change Characterization and Analysis in California Water Resources Planning Studies

Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops: Impacts and Strategies for Resilience

Climate change contributions to future atmospheric river flood damages in the western United States

Climate change decisive for Asia’s snow meltwater supply

Climate Change Effects on the High-Elevation Hydropower System with Consideration of Warming Impacts on Electricity Demand and Pricing

Climate Change Handbook for Regional Water Planning

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