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Central Coast Summary Report - California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment

California Energy Commission (CEC) | September 28th, 2018

Summary

The Central Coast Region is notable for its extensive natural ecosystems, many of which will be impacted by climate change. Hardwood forests, scrublands, and herbaceous

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Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2022 (draft)

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 21st, 2022

Summary

The Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP) describes a programmatic vision for improving flood risk management throughout the Central Valley. Prepared by the Calif

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Challenges Facing the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta: Complex, Chaotic, or Simply Cantankerous?

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | September 17th, 2015

Summary

Freshwater is a scarce and precious resource in California; its overall value is being made clear by the current severe drought. The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is a c

Freshwater is a scarce and precious resource in California; its overall value is being made clear by the current severe drought. The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is a critical node in a complex water supply system that extends throughout much of the western U.S. wherein demand is exceeding supply. The Delta also underpins a major component of the U.S. economy, helps feed a substantial part of the country, is a unique and valuable ecological resource, and is a place with a rich cultural heritage. Sustaining the Delta is a problem that manifests itself in many dimensions including the physical structure of the Delta, the conflicting demands for water, changing water quality, rapidly evolving ecological character, and high institutional complexity. The problems of the California Delta are increasingly complex, sometimes chaotic, and always contentious. There is general agreement that current management will sustain neither the Delta ecosystem nor high-quality water exports, as required under the Delta Reform Act, so there is a renewed urgency to address all dimensions of the problem aggressively. Sustainable management of the Delta ecosystem and California’s highly variable water supply, in the face of global climate change, will require bold political decisions that include adjustments to the infrastructure but give equal emphasis to chronic overuse and misuse of water, promote enhanced efficiency of water use, and facilitate new initiatives for ecosystem recovery. This new approach will need to be underpinned by collaborative science that supports ongoing evaluation and re-adjustment of actions. Problems like the Delta are formally “wicked" problems that cannot be “solved” in the traditional sense, but they can be managed with appropriate knowledge and flexible institutions. Where possible, it is advisable to approach major actions incrementally, with an eye toward avoiding catastrophic unexpected outcomes. Collaborative analyses of risks and benefits that consider all dimensions of the problem are essential. Difficult as the problems are, California has the tools and the intellectual resources to manage the Delta problem and achieve the twin goals of a reliable water supply and an ecologically diverse Delta ecosystem.

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Changes in Winter Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 Climate Models

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | April 1st, 2014

Summary

Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with winter atmospheric river (AR) events. Global climate models h

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Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 8th, 2021

Summary

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska

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Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise, Climate Science Special Report, Fourth National Climate Assessment

U.S. Global Change Research Program | November 1st, 2017

Summary

Sea level rise is closely linked to increasing global temperatures. Thus, even as uncertainties remain about just how much sea level may rise this century, it is virtu

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Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 23rd, 2022

Summary

Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell domin

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Characterizing the spatial scales of extreme daily precipitation in the United States

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 1st, 2018

Summary

The spatial extent of an extreme precipitation event can be important for a basin’s hydrologic response and subsequent flood risk, and may yield insights into underlyi

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Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

PLOS | February 17th, 2018

Summary

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regardi

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea- level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions.

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City of Santa Barbara Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability Study

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

Summary

Cliff and bluff erosion, flooding of low-lying areas, and damage to shoreline infrastructure and development will continue to affect California’s coastal communities in

Cliff and bluff erosion, flooding of low-lying areas, and damage to shoreline infrastructure and development will continue to affect California’s coastal communities in the decades ahead. Depending upon the rate of future sea-level rise, changes in wave energy, and coastal storm intensity and frequency, these hazards will be likely become more severe, with increasing risks to coastal communities. This study assesses the vulnerability of the City of Santa Barbara to future sea-level rise and related coastal hazards (by 2050 and 2100) based upon past events, shoreline topography, and exposure to sea-level rise and wave attack. It also evaluates the likely impacts of coastal hazards to specific areas of the City, analyzes their risks and the City’s ability to respond, and recommends potential adaptation responses. By 2050, the risk of wave damage to shoreline development and infrastructure in Santa Barbara will be high. Options are limited and adaptive capacity will be moderate, with retreat being the most viable long-term option. By 2100, the risk will become very high. By 2050, flooding and inundation of low-lying coastal areas will present a moderate risk to the City by 2050, which will have a moderate capacity for adaptation. If the high sea levels projected by the State occur, this risk will become very high, and adaptive capacity will become low by 2100. Cliff erosion has been taking place for decades, and as this process continues or increases, additional public and private property in the Mesa area will be threatened. The risk of increased cliff erosion will be moderate by 2050 and very high by 2100. Because armoring is ineffective here and retreat necessitates the relocation of structures, adaptive capacity will be low. Inundation of beaches presents a low threat to the City by 2050 but a high threat by 2100. The City faces a dilemma: protect oceanfront development and infrastructure or remove barriers and let beaches migrate inland. By 2100 structures will have to be moved if beaches are to be maintained.

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Central Coast Summary Report - California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment

Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2022 (draft)

Challenges Facing the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta: Complex, Chaotic, or Simply Cantankerous?

Changes in Winter Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 Climate Models

Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise, Climate Science Special Report, Fourth National Climate Assessment

Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast

Characterizing the spatial scales of extreme daily precipitation in the United States

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

City of Santa Barbara Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability Study

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