California’s Water: The Colorado River

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | October 1st, 2016

The Colorado River—a major water source for Southern California’s cities and farms—is shared among seven states and Mexico. Water use now outstrips supply. The

The Colorado River—a major water source for Southern California’s cities and farms—is shared among seven states and Mexico. Water use now outstrips supply. The environmental impacts of water use in this basin pose special challenges. This brief describes adaptation strategies so that the river can continue to provide essential benefits to the region. This publication is part of a briefing kit that summarizes a dozen of the state’s most pressing water management issues.

CalSim 3 Results for 2070 Climate Change and Sea Level Projections and Sensitivity Analysis

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 17th, 2024

This Technical Memorandum (TM) summarizes the key findings from a sensitivity analysis performed to analyze operations of the proposed Delta Conveyance Project (DCP) and

This Technical Memorandum (TM) summarizes the key findings from a sensitivity analysis performed to analyze operations of the proposed Delta Conveyance Project (DCP) and potential project water supply benefits under a range of potential scenarios for 2070 conditions. These scenarios consider climate change, sea level rise (SLR), and various water management responses. In addition, this sensitivity analysis also helps to identify whether proposed project operations and potential project impacts detailed in the Final DCP Environmental Impact Report (EIR) would remain similar or differ under a different climate change and SLR scenario under 2070 conditions, a more distant future.

Carbon accumulation and vertical accretion in a restored versus historic salt marsh in southern Puget Sound, Washington, United States

Society for Ecological Restoration | March 4th, 2019

Few comparisons exist between vertical accretion (VA) and carbon accumulation rates (CARs) in restored versus historic (i.e. reference) marshes. Here, we compare these pr

Few comparisons exist between vertical accretion (VA) and carbon accumulation rates (CARs) in restored versus historic (i.e. reference) marshes. Here, we compare these processes in a formerly diked, sparsely vegetated, restored salt marsh (Six Gill Slough, SG), whose surface is subsided relative to the tidal frame, to an adjacent, relatively pristine, historic salt marsh (Animal Slough, AS). Six sediment cores were collected at both AS and SG approximately 6 years after restoration. Cores were analyzed for bulk density (BD), % loss of ignition, % organic carbon, and 210Pb. We found that sharp changes in BD in surface layers of SG cores were highly reliable markers for the onset of restoration. The mean VA since restoration at SG (0.79 [SD = 0.29] cm/year) was approximately twice that of AS (0.41 [SD = 0.16] cm/year). In comparison, the VA at AS over 50 years was 0.30 (SD = 0.09) cm/year. VA consisted almost entirely of inorganic sediment at SG whereas at AS it was approximately 55%. Mean CARs at SG were somewhat greater than at AS, but the difference was not significant due to high variability (SG: 81–210 g C m−2 year−1; AS: 115–168 g C m−2 year−1). The mean CAR at AS over the past 50 years was 118 (SD = 23) g C m−2 year−1. This study demonstrates that a sparsely vegetated, restored salt marsh can quickly begin to accumulate carbon and that historic and restored marshes can have similar CARs despite highly divergent formation processes.

Carbon Footprint Planning: Quantifying Local and State Mitigation Opportunities for 700 California Cities

Urban Planning (Cogitatio) | April 17th, 2018

Consumption-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories have emerged to describe full life cycle contributions of households to climate change at country, st

Consumption-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories have emerged to describe full life cycle contributions of households to climate change at country, state and increasingly city scales. Using this approach, how much carbon foot- print abatement potential is within the control of local governments, and which policies hold the most potential to reduce emissions? This study quantifies the potential of local policies and programs to meet aggressive GHG reduction targets using a consumption-based, high geospatial resolution planning model for the state of California. We find that roughly 35% of all carbon footprint abatement potential statewide is from activities at least partially within the control of local governments. The study shows large variation in the size and composition of carbon footprints and abatement opportu- nities by ∼23,000 Census block groups (i.e., neighborhood-scale within cities), 717 cities and 58 counties across the state. These data and companion online tools can help cities better understand priorities to reduce GHGs from a comprehensive, consumption-based perspective, with potential application to the full United States and internationally.

Carbon Sequestration and Subsidence Reversal in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Bay: Management Opportunities for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | August 28th, 2023

Case Studies of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure in Coastal California: A Component of Identification of Natural Infrastructure Options for Adapting to Sea Level Rise

Nature Conservancy | November 27th, 2017

Sea level rise and erosion are major threats to California’s coast, requiring solutions to preserve the many benefits a healthy coastline provides: flood protec

Sea level rise and erosion are major threats to California’s coast, requiring solutions to preserve the many benefits a healthy coastline provides: flood protection, recreation, habitat for wildlife, water quality and more. Seawalls and other engineered structures, are commonly installed in order to hold the shoreline in place and hold back the ocean; however, they ultimately make the situation worse in most cases by increasing erosion and thus causing already vulnerable shorelines to shrink more. Natural shoreline infrastructure is an alternative that is more likely to preserve the benefits of coastal ecosystems while also maintaining coastal access. The California coastline is very diverse, and no single solution will address all the chal- lenges anticipated in the future. While there is a continuum of approaches to address sea level rise and coastal erosion— ranging from fully natural approaches that preserve or restore natural systems, hybrid solutions that integrate engineered aspects into restored or created natural features, and fully engineered structures like seawalls and revetments—prop- erty owners and managers don’t typically consider the entire range of options when making coastal management decisions. To address the gap in familiarity with natural infrastructure and the lack of technical guidance to aid decision-makers and engineers in the appropriate application of different strategies for different situations, this report summarizes natural infrastructure projects for a range of settings in coastal California. Each case study covers the background, permitting, planning, implementation, performance, and key lessons learned from each project in order to provide the critical information needed to implement successful adaptation strategies to address coastal issues, and inspire other communities by highlighting the lessons learned.

Causes of accelerated High-Tide Flooding in the U.S. since 1950

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 15th, 2023

Causes of extreme ridges that induce California droughts

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | February 15th, 2017

California droughts are often caused by high-amplitude and persistent ridges near and off the west coast of North America without apparent connections with ENSO. Here wi

California droughts are often caused by high-amplitude and persistent ridges near and off the west coast of North America without apparent connections with ENSO. Here with a hierarchy of climate models, it is demonstrated that extreme ridges in this region are associated with a continuum of zonal wavenumber-5 circumglobal teleconnection patterns that originate from midlatitude atmospheric internal dynamics. Although tropical diabatic heating anomalies are not essential to the formation and maintenance of these wave patterns, certain persistent heating anomalies may double the probability of ridges with amplitudes in the 90th percentile occurring on interannual time scales. Those heating anomalies can be caused by either natural variability or possibly by climate change, and they do not necessarily depend on ENSO. The extreme ridges that occurred during the 2013/14 and 2014/15 winters could be examples of ridges produced by heating anomalies that are not associated with ENSO. This mechanism could provide a source of subseasonal-tointerannual predictability beyond the predictability provided by ENSO.

Causes of the 2011‐14 California Drought

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 15th, 2015

The causes of the California drought during November–April winters of 2011/12–2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmo

The causes of the California drought during November–April winters of 2011/12–2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Niño event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Niña event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west–cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

Causes of the Extreme Dry Conditions over California During Early 2013

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 30th, 2014

The state of California experienced extreme dry conditions during early 2013. In particular, January and February received 28% and 15%, respectively, of their nor

The state of California experienced extreme dry conditions during early 2013. In particular, January and February received 28% and 15%, respectively, of their normal monthly rainfall. When January and February are combined, January/ February 2013 is ranked as the driest of the period 1895–2014. Such large precipitation deficits exerted enormous stress on water resources in an already high water-demand region. Thus, it is of practical importance to investigate the causes of this extreme climate event so as to assess its predictability. *Chapter 3, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9)