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Accounting for Climate Change
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Accounting for Climate Change
Department of Water Resources | April 29, 2010...
Summary
In recent years, evidence that global climate will have significant effects on water resources in California has continued to accumulate. Climate change can...
In recent years, evidence that global climate will have significant effects on water resources in California has continued to accumulate. Climate change can affect the amount, timing, and form of precipitation, whether rain or snow, that California receives, as well as the sea level of the Pacific Ocean. Moreover, changes in weather, especially temperature, and atmospheric composition can affect water use and consumption. Changes in climate have occurred during the 20th century, with noticeable warming in the last two decades.

Most scientists feel that changes during the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but natural causes and variability cannot be ruled out as a significant component. Likewise, projections of amount of warming and other climate changes during the 21st century are wide ranging, depending on assumptions and models.

A major cause of expected climate change is the increasing amounts of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere as a result of man’s activities. These gases, as well as water vapor, allow solar radiation to pass inward through the atmosphere, but trap the longer wave infrared radiation reflected back from the earth’s surface. Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere; the following chart shows the gradual build up in carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, as measured by Scripps Institution of Oceanography scientists. The annual cycle is caused by northern hemisphere vegetation uptake during the growing season. Other significant greenhouse gases are methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons (like freon and its replacements), and, of course, water vapor itself. Cloud cover is an important element in the global radiation balance.

Whatever the causes, the prospects of significant changes warrant examination of how the State’s water infrastructure and natural systems can accommodate or adapt to climate changes and whether more needs to be done to detect, evaluate and respond to water resource system effects. Many uncertainties remain, primarily on the degree of change to be expected. Responsible planning requires that the California water planning community work with climate scientists and others to reduce these uncertainties and to begin to prepare for those impacts that are well understood, already appearing as trends, or likely to appear. In this section we review possible impacts and address some of the responses appropriate for water planners and managers.

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Adapting California’s Water Management to Climate Change
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Adapting California’s Water Management to Climate Change
Public Policy Institute of California | January 12, 2009...
Summary
Among the potential impacts of climate change, accelerated sea level rise and a reduced Sierra snowpack are the most certain. Both will pose...
Among the potential impacts of climate change, accelerated sea level rise and a reduced Sierra snowpack are the most certain. Both will pose significant challenges for water supply and flood management. Water utilities have already begun to plan for these changes, but flood control agencies are lagging behind and face greater regulatory constraints. State leadership is needed to resolve some threats, including the risk of catastrophic failure in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. This report was prepared as part of the Preparing California for a Changing Climate project.

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Analysis of the costs and benefits of using marsh restoration as a sea level rise adaptation strategy in San Francisco Bay
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Analysis of the costs and benefits of using marsh restoration as a sea level rise adaptation strategy in San Francisco Bay
The Bay Institute | February 22, 2013...
Summary
The purpose of this study is to examine opportunities to protect San Francisco Bay’s recovering tidal marsh ecosystems while helping bayshore communities to...
The purpose of this study is to examine opportunities to protect San Francisco Bay’s recovering tidal marsh ecosystems while helping bayshore communities to manage the impacts of sea level rise. Specifically, it considers the flood risk management functions that tidal marshes perform naturally and evaluates the possibility of integrating those functions into a co-beneficial shoreline management strategy. The study’s intended audience is planners, politicians, regulators, and other stakeholders with the authority to make or affect decisions that influence the configuration and use of the San Francisco Bay shoreline. The study examines the current functions of San Francisco Bay tidal marshes as well as existing flood risk management strategies. It considers how environmental conditions are likely to change in the era of climate change, and how we can adapt our marshes and our flood risk management practices to accommodate these changes.

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Aquatic Ecosystem Stressors in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
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Aquatic Ecosystem Stressors in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Public Policy Institute of California | May 5, 2012...
Summary
This report presents results from an analysis of the institutional and legal options for more effective ecosystem management in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta....
This report presents results from an analysis of the institutional and legal options for more effective ecosystem management in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. It is part of a wide-ranging study on the management of multiple ecosystem stressors in the Delta. .

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California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009)
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California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009)
California Natural Resources Agency | December 1, 2009...
Summary
Climate change is already affecting California. Sea levels have risen by as much as seven inches along the California coast over the last...
Climate change is already affecting California. Sea levels have risen by as much as seven inches along the California coast over the last century, increasing erosion and pressure on the state’s infrastructure, water supplies, and natural resources. The state has also seen increased average temperatures, more extreme hot days, fewer cold nights, a lengthening of the growing season, shifts in the water cycle with less winter precipitation falling as snow, and both snowmelt and rainwater running off sooner in the year.

These climate driven changes affect resources critical to the health and prosperity of California. For example, forest wildland fires are becoming more frequent and intense due to dry seasons that start earlier and end later. The state’s water supply, already stressed under current demands and expected population growth, will shrink under even the most conservative climate change scenario. Almost half a million Californians, many without the means to adjust to expected impacts, will be at risk from sea level rise along bay and coastal areas.

California’s infrastructure is already stressed and will face additional burdens from climate risks. And as the Central Valley becomes more urbanized, more people will be at risk from intense heat waves.

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California Climate Science and Data for Water Resources Management
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California Climate Science and Data for Water Resources Management
Department of Water Resources | July 6, 2015...
Summary
Climate change creates critical challenges for California water resources management. The vulnerability of the water sector to climate change stems from a modified...
Climate change creates critical challenges for California water resources management. The vulnerability of the water sector to climate change stems from a modified hydrology that affects the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme events, which, in turn, affect water quantity, quality, and infrastructure. Warmer temperatures drive the snow line higher and reduce snowpack, resulting in less water storage. Intense rainfall events will continue to affect the state, possibly leading to more frequent and/or more extensive flooding. The acceleration of sea level rise will produce higher storm surges during coastal storms.

Droughts are likely to become more frequent and persistent during this century. Because California contains multiple climate zones, each region of the state will experience a combination of impacts from climate change
unique to that area. While significant uncertainties still remain for local precipitation and temperature changes, projections at the regional and
statewide levels are already available.

Water supply managers in California have multiple tools and institutional capabilities to limit vulnerability to changing conditions, which can also serve as response mechanisms to a wide range of climate changes.

This brochure summarizes the observations, projections, and challenges
that climate change poses for water resources management in California,
and highlights climate change content developed for the California
Water Plan Update 2013.

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California Department of Water Resources Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 1990
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California Department of Water Resources Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 1990
Department of Water Resources | October 12, 2012...
Summary
The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) provides water management and planning services for the State of California. DWR is located within the...
The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) provides water management and planning services for the State of California. DWR is located within the California Natural Resources Agency.

DWR’s operations include ownership, operation, and maintenance of the State Water Project (SWP), operations and maintenance of flood protection facilities throughout the Central Valley, administration of several grant programs which dispense state funds to local and regional water authorities, and regulatory authority over dam safety throughout California.

This baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory has been developed to supplement information provided in DWR’s Climate Action Plan Phase I: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan (GGERP) (http://www.water.ca.gov/climatechange/CAP.cfm). The GGERP documents DWR’s historical, current, and projected future GHG emissions, establishes and articulates GHG emissions reduction goals for 2020 and 2050, and describes the GHG emissions reduction measures that DWR will implement to achieve those goals.

In the GGERP, GHG emissions are broken up into four categories: Operation, Construction, Maintenance, and Business Activities. Emissions are broken up in this way because they relate to key distinctions in the way activities are managed within DWR and the ways in which GHG emissions reduction measures can be implemented within DWR’s existing organizational structure. This inventory is organized to comply with the GHG Protocol? Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard developed by the World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development.

Therefore, this inventory accounts for GHG emissions from DWR activities under the categories of Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions. The information in this inventory is consistent with the information provided in the GGERP, uses the same base data, and only differs in the ways in which the data are categorized and summed.

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California’s Future
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California’s Future
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | January 18, 2018...
Summary
Water management in California has always been challenging. The state’s variable climate is marked by long droughts and severe floods, with stark regional...
Water management in California has always been challenging. The state’s variable climate is marked by long droughts and severe floods, with stark regional differences in water availability and demand. California has adapted by building a vast network of storage and conveyance facilities to deliver water from the wetter parts of the state to population and farming centers in the Bay Area, the San Joaquin Valley, and Southern California. The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is a fragile link in the state’s water supply network, and a plan to address supply reliability, known as California WaterFix, faces many hurdles. California’s extensive network of dams is aging. Agricultural demand is becoming less flexible, as farmers are increasing tree crops (especially nuts), which must be watered every year. Conflicts are growing between human water use and water needed to support fish and other wildlife. And the latest cycle of droughts and floods provides a glimpse of an uncertain future under climate change. California’s water management challenges are complex, but they can be addressed. Solutions will involve difficult and sometimes costly trade-offs, as well as contentious legal and political changes.

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California’s Climate Adaptation Water Strategy: An Analysis of Implications for Individual and Community Rights and Responsibilities
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California’s Climate Adaptation Water Strategy: An Analysis of Implications for Individual and Community Rights and Responsibilities
Department of Water Resources | July 31, 2009...
Summary
The inevitable consequences of climate change will put some of California's people and communities more at risk than others. Because of location and...
The inevitable consequences of climate change will put some of California's people and communities more at risk than others. Because of location and a limited capacity to adapt, vulnerable populations may face profound and disproportionate harm. California's Climate Adaptation Strategy planners are seeking ways to address this potential harm.

The California Adaptation Strategy (CAS) Working Groups are seeking to address the impact of climate change on the state’s vulnerable populations. This analysis therefore asks how California can create a policy environment for equitable adaptation processes and outcomes. This analysis begins with a literature review on equity issues in adaptation planning, then examines the Water Working Group’s draft climate adaptation strategies, and then presents the results of twenty-six expert interviews.

Two key concerns in the development of adaptation policy that arise in this analysis are feedback loops between vulnerable communities and policymakers and direct access to resources to enable greater adaptive capacity. While this analysis looks closest at the Water Working Group’s strategies, it is anticipated that many of the findings will apply to the overall strategy.

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California’s Water: Climate Change and Water
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California’s Water: Climate Change and Water
Public Policy Institute of California | October 1, 2016...
Summary
California’s climate is warming and becoming more variable. While the state is a leader in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, its water system was...
California’s climate is warming and becoming more variable. While the state is a leader in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, its water system was designed for a 20th century climate. All facets of water management must be updated to adapt to changing conditions. This brief summarizes strategies to help the state prepare for a changing climate and rising sea level.

This publication is part of a briefing kit that summarizes a dozen of the state’s most pressing water management issues.

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City of Santa Barbara Sea?Level Rise Vulnerability Study
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City of Santa Barbara Sea?Level Rise Vulnerability Study
California Energy Commission | July 31, 2012...
Summary
Cliff and bluff erosion, flooding of low?lying areas, and damage to shoreline infrastructure and development will continue to affect California’s coastal communities in...
Cliff and bluff erosion, flooding of low?lying areas, and damage to shoreline infrastructure and development will continue to affect California’s coastal communities in the decades ahead.

Depending upon the rate of future sea?level rise, changes in wave energy, and coastal storm intensity and frequency, these hazards will be likely become more severe, with increasing risks to coastal communities. This study assesses the vulnerability of the City of Santa Barbara to future sea?level rise and related coastal hazards (by 2050 and 2100) based upon past events, shoreline topography, and exposure to sea?level rise and wave attack. It also evaluates the likely impacts of coastal hazards to specific areas of the City, analyzes their risks and the City’s ability to respond, and recommends potential adaptation responses.

By 2050, the risk of wave damage to shoreline development and infrastructure in Santa Barbara will be high. Options are limited and adaptive capacity will be moderate, with retreat being the most viable long-term option. By 2100, the risk will become very high. By 2050, flooding and inundation of low-lying coastal areas will present a moderate risk to the City by 2050, which will have a moderate capacity for adaptation. If the high sea levels projected by the State occur, this risk will become very high, and adaptive capacity will become low by 2100.

ClCliff erosion has been taking place for decades, and as this process continues or increases, additional public and private property in the Mesa area will be threatened. The risk of increased cliff erosion will be moderate by 2050 and very high by 2100. Because armoring is ineffective here and retreat necessitates the relocation of structures, adaptive capacity will be low. Inundation of beaches presents a low threat to the City by 2050 but a high threat by 2100. The City faces a dilemma: protect oceanfront development and infrastructure or remove barriers and let beaches migrate inland. By 2100 structures will have to be moved if beaches are to be maintained.

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Climate Action Plan Phase 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan
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Climate Action Plan Phase 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan
California Department of Water Resources | May 18, 2012...
Summary
The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) in an effort to reduce its impact on the environment and lead by example, has developed...
The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) in an effort to reduce its impact on the environment and lead by example, has developed this Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Reduction Plan to guide its project development and decision making with respect to energy use and GHG emissions.

It is now clearly understood that these gases enhance the Earth’s ability to absorb and retain the heat radiated from the sun. Increased concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere are the principal cause of anthropogenic climate change. As the connection between GHG emissions and climate change has strengthened and California has established GHG policies and reduction goals, DWR has focused on its own GHG emissions and developed strategies to reduce its contribution to the global problem of climate change consistent with those policies and goals.

This GHG Emissions Reduction Plan (Plan) is the first Phase in DWR’s Climate Action Plan and considers GHG emissions from all DWR activities. In this Plan, DWR details its progress and future plans for reducing GHG emissions consistent with the GHG emissions reduction targets established in Assembly Bill (AB) 32, Executive Order S-3-05, and DWR’s own policies, the aggressive steps it will take to reduce its emissions by over 80% below 1990 levels, and the steps that it will take to monitor its progress toward achieving these reductions.

DWR estimates that its total GHG emissions in 1990 were nearly 3.5 million metric tons, roughly the equivalent of a coal fired power plant or 680,000 passenger cars. Most of these emissions were released as a result of generation of electricity used to move water through the State Water Project (SWP), which DWR owns and operates. Since 1990, DWR’s GHG emissions have fluctuated due to hydrologic conditions, water demands, and energy resources. DWR GHG emissions peaked in 2003 at over 4.1 million metric tons per year.

This Plan shows how DWR will make substantial reductions in its GHG emissions in the near-term (present to 2020) and how it will continue to reduce emissions beyond 2020 to achieve its long-term (2050) GHG emissions reduction goals.

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Climate Change Adaptations for Local Water Management in the San Francisco Bay Area
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Climate Change Adaptations for Local Water Management in the San Francisco Bay Area
California Energy Commission | July 1, 2012...
Summary
Climate change will affect both sea level and the temporal and spatial distribution of runoff in California. These climate change impacts will affect...
Climate change will affect both sea level and the temporal and spatial distribution of runoff in California. These climate change impacts will affect the reliability of water supplies and operations of California’s water supply system. To meet future urban water demands in the San Francisco Bay Area, local water managers can adapt by changing water supply portfolios and operations.

An engineering economic model, CALVIN, which optimizes water supply operations and allocations for the State of California, was used to explore the effects on water supply of a severely warm dry climate and substantial sea level rise, and to identify economically promising long-term adaptations for San Francisco Bay Area water systems. This reconnaissance level modeling suggests that even under fairly severe forms of climate change, Bay Area urban water demands can be largely met, but at a cost. Costs are from purchasing water from agricultural users (with agricultural opportunity costs), more expensive water supply alternatives such as water recycling and desalination, and some increases in water scarcity (costs of water use reduction).

The modeling also demonstrates the importance of water transfer and intertie infrastructure to facilitate flexible water management among Bay Area water agencies. The intertie capacity developed by Bay Area agencies for emergencies, such as earthquakes, becomes even more valuable for responding to severe changes in climate.

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Climate Change Analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed
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Climate Change Analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed
Bureau of Reclamation | September 24, 2013...
Summary
The Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study (Basin Study) is a collaborative effort by the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority (SAWPA) and the Bureau...
The Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study (Basin Study) is a collaborative effort by the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority (SAWPA) and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), authorized under the Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow SECURE Water Act (Title IX, Subtitle F of Public Law 111-11). The study began in 2011 and was completed in the spring of 2013. The Basin Study complements SAWPA’s Integrated Regional Water Management (IRWM) planning process, also known as the “One Water One Watershed” (OWOW) Plan, and refines the watershed’s water projections, and identifies potential adaptation strategies, in light of projected effects of climate change. This climate change analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed (SARW) is a contributing section to the Basin Study.

This report explains the methods used to develop an analysis of potential implications of the changing climate, and how those implications might affect issues of importance to the Santa Ana River Watershed. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the project and the study area, along with a summary of relevant previous studies. The development of climate projections and hydrology models used can be found in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 provides projections for water supply and demand in the SARW. An impact analysis was conducted focusing on key areas of importance to the SARW, the results of which can be found in Chapter 4. A tool to evaluate demand management is presented in Chapter 5, along with a case study of potential adaptation strategies. Chapter 6 addresses uncertainties in climate change analysis.

In light of climate change, prolonged drought conditions, growth, and population projections, a strong concern exists to ensure there will be adequate water supplies to meet future water demand. The findings of this Basin Study will be used to update the OWOW Plan, evaluate the implications of climate change, assess increased energy demand, and ensure that future water quality and supply needs are met.

Goals of the study include: incorporating existing regional and local planning studies within the watershed; sustaining the innovative “bottom up” approach to regional water resources management planning; ensuring an integrated, collaborative approach; using science and technology to assess climate change and greenhouse emissions effects; facilitating watershed adaptation planning; and expanding outreach to all major water uses and stakeholders.

Future water supply was analyzed for the Santa Ana River Watershed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model (Liang et al., 1994; Liang et al., 1996; Nijssen et al., 1997) to project streamflow using 112 different projections of future climate. Projected climate variables, including daily precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and wind speed, came from the Bias Corrected and Spatially Downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (BCSD-CMIP3) archive.

Historical VIC model simulations over the period 1950-1999 were conducted using historical meteorological forcings (factors affecting the climate of the earth that drive or “force” the climate to change) developed by Maurer et al., (2002), and subsequent extensions. The VIC hydrologic model solves the water balance for each of a series of 1/8° by 1/8° (~12km x 12 km) grid cells, which represent the watershed. Daily climate projections span the time period January 1, 1950 to December 31, 2099 and exist for each grid cell. Grid based outputs of daily runoff and baseflow generated by the VIC hydrologic model are routed to select sites throughout the watershed to produce daily streamflow projections.

Through coordination with SAWPA and local water agencies, 36 key locations in the basin were determined, so that sub-basins could be delineated. Change factors were developed by calculating decade mean (reference decade – 1990s; three future decades – 2020s, 2050s, and 2070s) total precipitation and temperature, then calculating percent change, and finally calculating the median change for all the 112 projections. Final products include data sets at key locations for precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, April 1st Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), and streamflow.

These data sets were used to answer frequently asked questions regarding impacts of climate change on the Santa Ana River Watershed.

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Climate Change and Integrated Regional Water Management in California: A Preliminary Assessment of Regional Approaches
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Climate Change and Integrated Regional Water Management in California: A Preliminary Assessment of Regional Approaches
Department of Water Resources | June 6, 2012...
Summary
This report examines the initial steps that IRWM regions are taking in response to new requirements to address climate change vulnerabilities and consider...
This report examines the initial steps that IRWM regions are taking in response to new requirements to address climate change vulnerabilities and consider greenhouse gas emissions in IRWM plans.

Given our evolving understanding of climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation strategies, effectively integrating climate change into planning is a challenging task. This report seeks to
learn from initial steps by IRWM regions in order to inform future guidance and support. It also identifies key considerations for DWR and IRWM regions in analyzing and adapting to climate change
risks within an adaptive management framework.

Specifically, this report seeks to:
1. Assess the manner and degree to which the climate change requirements in the 2010 IRWM Guidelines are met in Round 1 Proposition 84 Planning and Implementation grant proposals, and in recently approved IRWM plans
2. Assess current IRWM regional approaches to analyzing and adapting to climate change risks, in light of the overall goal to promote an adaptive management approach
3. Provide recommendations on key steps for DWR and IRWM regions to support the development of informative climate change analyses and mechanisms for adaptive management at regional and state levels

This assessment is based on a review of the current IRWM climate change requirements, existing IRWM plans, and Planning and Implementation grant proposals funded in 2011. It is also informed by interviews conducted by DWR regional climate change specialists with representatives of IRWM regions regarding their plans to address climate change.

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Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for California Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
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Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for California Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
California Energy Commission | July 31, 2012...
Summary
This white paper provides an evaluation of physical elements of climate change and sea level rise that are contained in the California Climate...
This white paper provides an evaluation of physical elements of climate change and sea level rise that are contained in the California Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment. The analyses use six global climate models, each run under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios B1 and A2 scenarios.

From the global climate models and associated downscaled output, these scenarios contain a range of warming, continued interannual and decadal variation of precipitation with incremental changes by the middle and end of twenty?first century, substantial loss of mountain snow pack, and a range of sea level rise along the California coast.

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Climate Change and the Delta
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Climate Change and the Delta
San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science | October 1, 2016...
Summary
Climate change amounts to a fast approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability,...
Climate change amounts to a fast approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated.

Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. Future precipitation changes are less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporation and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks.

Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include sea level rise, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflow, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas.

Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision-making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

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Climate Change and the Delta: A Synthesis (Public Review Draft)

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Climate Change and the Delta: A Synthesis (Public Review Draft)
Delta Stewardship Council | March 23, 2018...
Summary
The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to...
The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to achieve the coequal goals of providing a more reliable water supply for California and protecting, restoring, and enhancing the Delta ecosystem (Water Code Section 85000). In the time since the Plan was adopted in 2013, a significant shift in State planning for Delta ecosystem protection, restoration, and enhancement has occurred, prompting review of the Delta Plan to examine whether its strategies are still suited to achieve the ecological goals of the Delta Reform Act. As such, the Delta Stewardship Council (Council) is developing an amendment of the Plan’s Chapter 4, Protect, Restore, and Enhance the Delta Ecosystem.

Council staff are reviewing the best-available science to inform amendment of Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan. To support this effort, Council staff have developed three science synthesis papers. This paper focuses on the effects of climate change in the Delta and is accompanied by two other papers focused on the Delta ecosystem (terrestrial and aquatic resources) and restoration. Climate change is of interest for the Chapter 4 amendment given recent rapid advancements in research on climate change and its effects on the Delta ecosystem that have occurred since the Delta Plan was adopted in 2013 (Dettinger et al. 2016).

Climate change has the potential to significantly affect the Delta ecosystem by raising air and water temperatures, changing the timing and volume of flows into and through the Delta, increasing tidal inundation with sea-level rise (SLR), and increasing salinity intrusion into the Delta. Climate change is recognized as a global stressor in Chapter 4 of the 2013 Delta Plan, but the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems are discussed only briefly and with limited consideration of management strategies that address the issue. Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan identifies five key stressors to the Delta ecosystem and core strategies for addressing each. Climate change has interrelated effects on all five core strategy areas: Delta flows, habitat, water quality, non-native 28 species, and hatcheries and harvest management.

The Delta Reform Act specifies consideration of “the future impact of climate change and sea-level rise” (Water Code Section 85066), and identifies a restoration timeline horizon of 2100 (Water Code Section 85302). More generally, Executive Order B-30-15, signed by Governor Brown in April 2015, requires that State agencies incorporate climate change into planning and investment decisions, and that they prioritize natural infrastructure and actions for climate preparedness.

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Climate Change and Water
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Climate Change and Water
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | July 21, 2008...
Summary
The Technical Paper addresses the issue of freshwater. Sea-level rise is dealt with only insofar as it can lead to impacts on freshwater...
The Technical Paper addresses the issue of freshwater. Sea-level rise is dealt with only insofar as it can lead to impacts on freshwater in coastal areas and beyond. Climate, freshwater, biophysical and socio-economic systems are interconnected in complex ways. Hence, a change in any one of these can induce a change in any other.

Freshwater-related issues are critical in determining key regional and sectoral vulnerabilities. Therefore, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species.

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Climate Change and Water Supply Security: Reconfiguring Groundwater Management to Reduce Drought Vulnerability
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Climate Change and Water Supply Security: Reconfiguring Groundwater Management to Reduce Drought Vulnerability
State of California | April 8, 2012...
Summary
Periodic droughts, projected to become more frequent and severe with climate change, present a significant planning challenge for California’s water agencies. This research...
Periodic droughts, projected to become more frequent and severe with climate change, present a significant planning challenge for California’s water agencies. This research examined approaches to reducing drought vulnerability, focusing on five water agencies on California’s north and central coast that rely on local and regional sources of water.

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