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A shift from drought to extreme rainfall drives a stable landslide to catastrophic failure

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A shift from drought to extreme rainfall drives a stable landslide to catastrophic failure
Nature | February 7, 2019...
Summary
The addition of water on or below the earth’s surface generates changes in stress that can trigger both stable and unstable sliding of...

The addition of water on or below the earth’s surface generates changes in stress that can trigger both stable and unstable sliding of landslides and faults. While these sliding behaviours are well-described by commonly used mechanical models developed from laboratory testing (e.g., critical-state soilmechanics and rate-and-state friction), less is known about the field-scale environmental conditions orkinematic behaviours that occur during the transition from stable to unstable sliding. Here we use radarinterferometry (InSAR) and a simple 1D hydrological model to characterize 8 years of stable sliding of the Mud Creek landslide, California, UsA, prior to its rapid acceleration and catastrophic failure on May 20, 2017. Our results suggest a large increase in pore-fluid pressure occurred during a shift from historic drought to record rainfall that triggered a large increase in velocity and drove slip localization, overcoming the stabilizing mechanisms that had previously inhibited landslide acceleration. Given thepredicted increase in precipitation extremes with a warming climate, we expect it to become more common for landslides to transition from stable to unstable motion, and therefore a better assessmentof this destabilization process is required to prevent loss of life and infrastructure.

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A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the U.S., and Southern Canada 1950–2013

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A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the U.S., and Southern Canada 1950–2013
Nature | August 18, 2015...
Summary
A data set of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, gridded to a 1/16° (~6 km) resolution, is described that spans the...

A data set of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, gridded to a 1/16° (~6 km) resolution, is described that spans the entire country of Mexico, the conterminous U.S. (CONUS), and regions of Canada south of 53° N for the period 1950–2013. The dataset improves previous products in spatial extent, orographic precipitation adjustment over Mexico and parts of Canada, and reduction of transboundary discontinuities. The impacts of adjusting gridded precipitation for orographic effects are quantified by scaling precipitation to an elevation-aware 1981–2010 precipitation climatology in Mexico and Canada. Differences are evaluated in terms of total precipitation as well as by hydrologic quantities simulated with a land surface model. Overall, orographic correction impacts total precipitation by up to 50% in mountainous regions outside CONUS. Hydrologic fluxes show sensitivities of similar magnitude, with discharge more sensitive than evapotranspiration and soil moisture. Because of the consistent gridding methodology, the current product reduces transboundary discontinuities as compared with a commonly used reanalysis product, making it suitable for estimating large-scale hydrometeorologic phenomena.

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A Twenty-First-Century California Observing Network for Monitoring Extreme Weather Events

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A Twenty-First-Century California Observing Network for Monitoring Extreme Weather Events
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, American Meteorological Society | August 27, 2013...
Summary
During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount...
During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for the water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. To improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, are required. Here, the authors describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue-water management-in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area's most severe wintertime storms.

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An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5

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An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5
American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 13, 2015...
Summary
Landfalling atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific are evaluated in historical (1980–2005) simulations from 28 models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled...
Landfalling atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific are evaluated in historical (1980–2005) simulations from 28 models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Landfalling dates are identified as having spatially elongated high wind and moisture features in physical proximity to the coastline. Model performance relative to reanalysis is found to be quite variable. The majority can resolve the spatial structure of landfalling events, but few correctly resolve the frequency distribution, interannual variability in number and amplitude of moisture flux, and median landfalling latitude. The response of a subset of high-performing models to projected warming at the end of the 21st century is investigated using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (2070–2100) projections. Selected models show a broadening of the frequency distribution, with the largest increase in frequency occurring equatorward of peak historical frequency. While there is a robust increase in AR-related moisture transport compared to the historical period, this increase is not linked to more extreme AR events within the context of the projected future climate. The occurrence of years with many AR dates is greater at the end of the 21st century than during the historical period. The equatorward increase in peak historical frequency is colocated with increases in the 850 and 250 hPa zonal winds. The response in moisture flux to warming is mostly thermodynamic, but equatorward of its peak distribution, it is dominated by a dynamic response.

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ARTMIP-early start comparison of atmospheric river detection tools: how many atmospheric rivers hit northern California’s Russian River watershed?

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ARTMIP-early start comparison of atmospheric river detection tools: how many atmospheric rivers hit northern California’s Russian River watershed?
Climate Dynamics, Springer | September 10, 2018...
Summary
Many atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) have now been developed. However, their relative performance is not well documented. This paper compares a diverse...
Many atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) have now been developed. However, their relative performance is not well documented. This paper compares a diverse set of ARDTs by applying them to a single location where a unique 12-year-long time-series from an atmospheric river observatory at Bodega Bay, California is available. The study quantifies the sensitivity of the diagnosed number, duration, and intensity of ARs at this location to the choice of ARDT, and to the choice of reanalysis data set. The ARDTs compared here represent a range of methods that vary in their use of different variables, fixed vs. percentile-based thresholds, geometric shape requirements, Eulerian vs. Lagrangian approaches, and reanalyses. The ARDTs were evaluated first using the datasets documented in their initial publication, which found an average annual count of 19 ± 7. Applying the ARDTs to the same reanalysis dataset yields an average annual count of 19 ± 4. Applying a single ARDT to three reanalyses of varying grid sizes (0.5°, 1.0°–2.5°) showed little sensitivity to the choice of reanalysis. While the annual average AR event count varied by about a factor of two (10–25 per year) depending on the ARDT, average AR duration and maximum intensity varied by less than ± 10%, i.e., 24 ± 2 h duration; 458 ± 44 kg m^− 1 s^− 1maximum IVT. ARDTs that use a much higher threshold for integrated vapor transport were compared separately, and yielded just 1–2 ARs annually on average. Generally, ARDTs that include either more stringent geometric criteria or higher thresholds identified the fewest AR events.

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Assessing the climate‐scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America

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Assessing the climate‐scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America
American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 3, 2017...
Summary
We have created a new seven‐decade‐long catalog of atmospheric river behavior land‐falling upon the west coast of North America. The catalog has been...
We have created a new seven‐decade‐long catalog of atmospheric river behavior land‐falling upon the west coast of North America. The catalog has been validated against independent precipitation observations to ensure that the atmospheric rivers represented therein are associated with extreme orographic precipitation. Our results clearly delineate a prominent role for atmospheric rivers in California's hydroclimate. Atmospheric river variability has been particularly important in the recent California drought as well as its most recent lapse. We also detect a long‐term increasing trend in water vapor transport impinging on the west coast of North America associated with atmospheric rivers and overall wintertime water vapor transport associated with climate warming. Our results, moreover, suggest that potential predictability of seasonal behavior of atmospheric rivers may hinge on sources of climatic variability somewhat different from that of total water vapor transport.

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Atmospheric Rivers as Drought Busters on the U.S. West Coast
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Atmospheric Rivers as Drought Busters on the U.S. West Coast
USGS | April 25, 2013...
Summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have, in recent years, been recognized as the cause of the large majority of major floods in rivers all along...
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have, in recent years, been recognized as the cause of the large majority of major floods in rivers all along the U.S. West Coast and as the source of 30%–50% of all precipitation in the same region. The present study surveys the frequency with which ARs have played a critical role as a common cause of the end of droughts on the West Coast. This question was based on the observation that, in most cases, droughts end abruptly as a result of the arrival of an especially wet month or, more exactly, a few very large storms. This observation is documented using both Palmer Drought Severity Index and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index measures of drought occurrence for climate divisions across the conterminous United States from 1895 to 2010. When the individual storm sequences that contributed most to the wet months that broke historical West Coast droughts from 1950 to 2010 were evaluated, 33%–74% of droughts were broken by the arrival of landfalling AR storms. In the Pacific Northwest, 60%–74%of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by the arrival of AR storms. In California, about 33%–40% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by landfalling AR storms, with more localized low pressure systems responsible for many of the remaining drought breaks.

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Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States

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Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States
Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | December 4, 2019...
Summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extratropical storms that produce extreme precipitation on the west coasts of the world’s major landmasses. In the United States, ARs...
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extratropical storms that produce extreme precipitation on the west coasts of the world’s major landmasses. In the United States, ARs cause significant flooding, yet their economic impacts have not been quantified. Here, using 40 years of data from the National Flood Insurance Program, we show that ARs are the primary drivers of flood damages in the western United States. Using a recently developed AR scale, which varies from category 1 to 5, we find that flood damages increase exponentially with AR intensity and duration:

Each increase in category corresponds to a roughly 10-fold increase in damages. Category 4 and 5 ARs cause median damages in the tens and hundreds of millions of dollars, respectively. Rising population, increased development, and climate change are expected to worsen the risk of AR-driven flood damage in future decades.

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Atmospheric rivers impact California’s coastal water quality via extreme precipitation

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Atmospheric rivers impact California’s coastal water quality via extreme precipitation
Science of the Total Environment | June 25, 2019...
Summary
Precipitation in California is projected to become more volatile: less frequent but more extreme as global warming pushes midlatitude frontal cyclones further poleward...
Precipitation in California is projected to become more volatile: less frequent but more extreme as global warming pushes midlatitude frontal cyclones further poleward while bolstering the atmospheric rivers (ARs), which tend to produce the region's extreme rainfall. Pollutant accumulation and delivery to coastal waters can be expected to increase, as lengthening dry spells will be increasingly punctuated by more extreme precipitation events. Coastal pollution exposes human populations to high levels of fecal bacteria and associated pathogens, which can cause a variety of health impacts. Consequently, studying the impact of atmospheric rivers as the mechanism generating pulses of water pollution in coastal areas is relevant for public health and in the context of climate change. We aimed to quantify the links between precipitation events and water quality in order to explore meteorological causes as first steps toward effective early warning systems for the benefit of population health in California and beyond. We used historical gridded daily precipitation and weekly multiple fecal bacteria indicators at ~500 monitoring locations in California's coastal waters to identify weekly associations between precipitation and water quality during 2003–09 using canonical correlation analysis to account for the nested/clustered nature of longitudinal data. We then quantified, using a recently published catalog of atmospheric rivers, the proportion of coastal pollution events attributable to ARs. Association between precipitation and fecal bacteria was strongest in Southern California. Over two-thirds of coastal water pollution spikes exceeding one standard deviation were associated with ARs. This work highlights the importance of skillful AR landfall predictions in reducing vulnerability to extreme weather improving resilience of human populations in a varying and changing climate. Quantifying the impacts of ARs on waterborne diseases is important for planning effective preventive strategies for public health.

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Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multi-model, global evaluation

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Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multi-model, global evaluation
American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 1, 2017...
Summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play importantroles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes. Increasing...
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play importantroles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes. Increasing evidence shows that ARs have signatures and impacts in many regions across different continents. However, global-scalecharacterizations of AR representations in weather and climate models have been very limited. Using a recently developed AR detection algorithm oriented for global applications, the representation of AR activities in multi-decade weather/climate simulations is evaluated. The algorithm is applied to 6-hourly(daily) integrated water vapor transport (IVT) from 22 (2) global weather/climate models that participated inthe Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study–Year of Tropical Convection Multimodel Experiment, including four models with ocean-atmosphere coupling and two models with super parameterization. Multiple reanalysis products are used as references to help quantify model errors inthe context of reanalysis uncertainty. Model performance is examined for key aspects of ARs (frequency,intensity, geometry, and seasonality), with the focus on identifying and understanding systematic errors insimulated ARs. The results highlight the range of model performances relative to reanalysis uncertainty inrepresenting the most basic features of ARs. Among the 17 metrics considered, AR frequency, zonal IVT, fractional zonal circumference, fractional total meridional IVT, and three seasonality metrics have consistently large errors across all models. Possible connections between AR simulation qualities and aspects of model configurations are discussed. Despite the lack of a monotonic relationship, the importance of model horizontal resolution to the overall quality of AR simulation is suggested by the evaluation results.

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A shift from drought to extreme rainfall drives a stable landslide to catastrophic failure

A shift from drought to extreme rainfall drives a stable landslide to catastrophic failure

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A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the U.S., and Southern Canada 1950–2013

A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the U.S., and Southern Canada 1950–2013

Become a member to access this feature

A Twenty-First-Century California Observing Network for Monitoring Extreme Weather Events

A Twenty-First-Century California Observing Network for Monitoring Extreme Weather Events

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An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5

An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5

Become a member to access this feature

ARTMIP-early start comparison of atmospheric river detection tools: how many atmospheric rivers hit northern California’s Russian River watershed?

ARTMIP-early start comparison of atmospheric river detection tools: how many atmospheric rivers hit northern California’s Russian River watershed?

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Assessing the climate‐scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America

Assessing the climate‐scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America

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Atmospheric Rivers as Drought Busters on the U.S. West Coast

Atmospheric Rivers as Drought Busters on the U.S. West Coast

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Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States

Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States

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Atmospheric rivers impact California’s coastal water quality via extreme precipitation

Atmospheric rivers impact California’s coastal water quality via extreme precipitation

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Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multi-model, global evaluation

Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multi-model, global evaluation

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