Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 18th, 2024

Climate Change, Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | June 1st, 2011

Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storm

Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7‐model ensemble of historical‐climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher‐than‐historical water‐vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm‐temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood‐hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes.

Climate-Altered Wetlands Challenge Waterbird Use and Migratory Connectivity in Arid Landscapes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 15th, 2019

Wetlands in arid landscapes provide critical habitat for millions of migratory waterbirds across the world and throughout their annual cycle. The scope and scale

Wetlands in arid landscapes provide critical habitat for millions of migratory waterbirds across the world and throughout their annual cycle. The scope and scale of understanding avian use of these wetlands in conjunction with changes in climate are daunting yet critical to address lest we lose continent-wide migratory pathways. Here, we assess changes in waterbird use of North America’s Pacific Flyway in the Great Basin by examining water availability and climate trends over the past 100 years. We found recent (1980–2015) climate warming has significantly reduced the amount and shifted seasonality of water flowing into wetlands. Further, we found remarkable changes in waterbird species composition over time. We propose that a reduced hydroperiod and lower water quality from reduction in water level and flow limits sites used by waterbirds. These factors reduce chick survivorship as they cannot metabolize saline water, which makes suitable freshwater conditions a limiting resource. Collectively, climate-induced changes in Great Basin wetlands suggest a major shift in freshwater ecosystems, resulting in degradation of a continental migratory route. This work illustrates the importance of examining multi-scale changes in critical regional resources to understand their impact across a hemispheric flyway and provides a model to examine other flyways.

Climate-driven disturbances amplify forest drought sensitivity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2024

Climate-informed hydrologic modeling and policy typology to guide managed aquifer recharge

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | April 21st, 2021

Harvesting floodwaters to recharge depleted groundwater aquifers can simultaneously reduce flood and drought risks and enhance groundwater sustainability. However, deploy

Harvesting floodwaters to recharge depleted groundwater aquifers can simultaneously reduce flood and drought risks and enhance groundwater sustainability. However, deployment of this multibeneficial adaptation option is fundamentally constrained by how much water is available for recharge (WAFR) at present and under future climate change. Here, we develop a climate-informed and policy-relevant framework to quantify WAFR, its uncertainty, and associated policy actions. Despite robust and widespread increases in future projected WAFR in our case study of California (for 56/80% of subbasins in 2070–2099 under RCP4.5/RCP8.5), strong nonlinear interactions between diversion infrastructure and policy uncertainties constrain how much WAFR can be captured. To tap future elevated recharge potential through infrastructure expansion under deep uncertainties, we outline a novel robustness-based policy typology to identify priority areas of investment needs. Our WAFR analysis can inform effective investment decisions to adapt to future climate-fueled drought and flood risk over depleted aquifers, in California and beyond.

Climatic Fluctuations, Drought, and Flow in the Colorado River Basin

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 16th, 2004

Colorado River Basin August 2022 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 16th, 2022

Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology State of the Science

University of Colorado, Boulder | April 15th, 2020

The Colorado River Basin currently faces unprecedented stresses. Persistent dry conditions since 2000, along with the increasing recognition that warming temperatures are

The Colorado River Basin currently faces unprecedented stresses. Persistent dry conditions since 2000, along with the increasing recognition that warming temperatures are impacting the hydrology of the basin, have led to great concerns about the long-term reliability of basin water supplies. With ever-higher stakes for water resource planning and decision making, an even greater emphasis is placed on the tools that support those activities, notably Reclamation’s operations and planning models and similar models used at other agencies. The usefulness of these system models depends on many types of datasets and forecasts that serve as inputs to them, as well as the research and scientific understanding underpinning this complex chain of data and models. The development and refinement of the different links of the chain necessarily involves researchers, forecasters, and water managers. New research efforts have advanced our understanding of the hydroclimate of the basin and how key hydroclimate processes, variability, and changes can be captured in data and models. This rapid expansion of the scientific knowledge base, and the increasing complexity of the data and models used to operationalize that knowledge, parallel the growing uncertainties about the future climate and hydrology. Accordingly, basin stakeholders have recognized the importance of reassessing the scientific and technical basis for management and planning.

Colorado River Basin Environmental Transfers Scorecard

Stanford University | March 16th, 2017

The Colorado River and its tributaries support more than 35 million people and irrigate more than four million acres of farmland. At the same time, the river supports 30

The Colorado River and its tributaries support more than 35 million people and irrigate more than four million acres of farmland. At the same time, the river supports 30 fish species found nowhere else on earth and inspires millions of visitors and residents alike with its sheer beauty. However, growing water scarcity caused by increased water use, hydrologic variability and climate change loom over all the Colorado River provides. Click here for follow-up report.

Colorado River Basin Ten Tribes Partnership Tribal Water Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | December 13th, 2018

The Colorado River Basin Tribes Partnership (a.k.a. Ten Tribes Partnership) and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) initially undertook the Colorado River Basin Triba

The Colorado River Basin Tribes Partnership (a.k.a. Ten Tribes Partnership) and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) initially undertook the Colorado River Basin Tribal Water Study to augment the data produced for the Colorado River Basin Supply and Demand Study of 2012. With five tribes in the Upper Basin and five tribes in the Lower Basin, and between us, holding rights to more than 2.8 million acre-feet per year of water from the Colorado River and its tributaries, the Ten Tribes Partnership was uniquely positioned to explore these issues. However, in so doing, we learned that the effort would also serve to facilitate a broader and, we hope, a better understanding of the role tribal water plays, and will play, in the Colorado River Basin over the coming decades. In addition to producing technical information, the Tribes had other goals. First, we wanted to better understand how, at present, each of our individual water use scenarios fits into the overall scheme of Colorado River Basin management. Second, we wanted to know how future development of tribal water resources will alter Basin operations and affect other water users who are now using water to which a tribe may hold legal title, but which the title-holding tribe has not yet developed for its own use. Finally, we wanted to assess – to the extent present information allows – the role future development of tribal water rights will have on Basin operations. Along the way, we encountered data gaps, modeling limitations, and uncertainties, but nonetheless, with the support of Reclamation, we managed to address those issues sufficiently that we now provide this Report. If there is a ‘take-away’ that was surprising, it is that, even under the most favorable of circumstances for rapid tribal water development, the amount of water that will be used by the Tribes is dramatically overshadowed by the effect of climatic conditions on the overall supply of water in the Basin. Nature is still in charge. Challenges remain, but opportunities are in the offing. We hope this Report informs, resolves some uncertainty about how tribes perceive the future for their water uses, and establishes a baseline for discussions and development of relationships among tribes, states, the federal government, water managers, and water users throughout the Basin.