Tulare Lake

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 10th, 2021

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

Updated Study Reporting Levels (SRLs) for Trace-Element Data Collected for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project, October 2009–October 2018

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 16th, 2020

Groundwater samples have been collected in California as part of statewide investigations of groundwater quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Groundwat

Groundwater samples have been collected in California as part of statewide investigations of groundwater quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project (PBP) since 2004. The GAMA-PBP is being conducted in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board to assess and monitor the quality of groundwater resources used for public and domestic drinking-water supply and to improve public knowledge of groundwater quality in California. Quality-control samples (including but not limited to field, equipment, and source-solution blanks) were collected to evaluate and quantify the quality of the groundwater sample results. The GAMA-PBP previously determined study reporting levels (SRLs) for trace-element results based primarily on field blanks collected in California from May 2004 through March 2013. SRLs are raised reporting levels used to reduce the likelihood of reporting false detections attributable to contamination bias. The purpose of this report is to identify any changes in the pattern or magnitude of concentrations or detections in field blanks since the last evaluation that would require changing or ending the use of SRLs implemented in October 2009. Constituents analyzed were aluminum, antimony, arsenic, barium, beryllium, boron, cadmium, chromium, hexavalent chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, lithium, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, silver, strontium, thallium, uranium, vanadium, and zinc. For this review, data from 167 field blanks collected from October 2009 through October 2018 by the GAMA-PBP for trace elements were compiled. Based on a consistent pattern of decreasing cobalt and manganese concentrations in field blanks from 2009 to 2013, the GAMA-PBP decided to reevaluate all trace-element SRLs, effectively setting an end date for previously defined SRLs. Beginning October 2013, SRLs would be determined from field-blank data collected through October 2018. The detection frequency and upper limit of potential contamination bias (BD-90/90) were determined from field blanks for each trace element. The BD-90/90, that is, the upper 90-percent confidence limit of the 90th percentile concentration of potential extrinsic contamination, was calculated by assuming the binomial probability distribution. These results were compared to each constituent’s detection limit to determine whether an SRL was necessary to minimize the potential for detections in the groundwater samples, attributed principally to contamination bias. Results of the evaluation were used to set SRLs for trace-element data collected by the GAMA-PBP between October 2013 and October 2018. Trace elements prescribed an SRL based on this review were hexavalent chromium, cobalt, copper, lead, and zinc. This review also resulted in the removal of SRLs from iron, manganese, molybdenum, and nickel. Although an SRL for hexavalent chromium could not be evaluated in the earlier reviews because the data were not collected regularly until 2015, one was established herein as 0.34 micrograms per liter (μg/L). The SRL for cobalt, as previously implemented, had been to reject all results; it was changed to 0.16 μg/L following a reduction in cobalt field-blank detection frequency resulting from mitigation steps, starting in 2014, aimed at reducing contamination bias introduced by high-capacity capsule filters used during sample collection. The SRL for copper did not change, and the SRL for lead changed very little based on this review. Lastly, the SRL for zinc was lowered from 6.2 μg/L to 3.9 μg/L.

Updating California Water Laws to Address Drought and Climate Change

California Planning & Conservation League Foundation | February 3rd, 2022

Updating the CALVIN Hydro-Economic Optimization Model of California: Central Valley Groundwater

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 11th, 2012

Updates are being made to Central Valley groundwater in CALVIN, a hydro-economic model of California’s intertied water supply and delivery system. These updates reflect

Updates are being made to Central Valley groundwater in CALVIN, a hydro-economic model of California’s intertied water supply and delivery system. These updates reflect better estimates of water demands, groundwater availability, and local water management opportunities. This poster focuses on updating CALVIN groundwater parameters based on California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) model inputs and results. Two CALVIN update projects, using the DWR and USGS groundwater models, are underway to improve groundwater representation including basin inflows, reuse, return flows, capacities, and pumping costs. These sub-projects will result in a CALVIN model with updated groundwater representation based on C2VSIM and CVHM. This poster shows a preliminary comparison of these sub-projects and a summary comparison between the DWR and USGS models.

Uplift and seismicity driven by groundwater depletion in central California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 14th, 2014

Groundwater use in California’s San Joaquin Valley exceeds replenishment of the aquifer, leading to substantial diminution of this resource and rapid subsidence of the

Groundwater use in California’s San Joaquin Valley exceeds replenishment of the aquifer, leading to substantial diminution of this resource and rapid subsidence of the valley floor. The volume of groundwater lost over the past century and a half also represents a substantial reduction in mass and a large-scale unburdening of the lithosphere, with significant but unexplored potential impacts on crustal deformation and seismicity. Here we use vertical global positioning system measurements to show that a broad zone of rock uplift of up to 1–3 mm per year surrounds the southern San Joaquin Valley. The observed uplift matches well with predicted flexure from a simple elastic model of current rates of water-storage loss, most of which is caused by groundwater depletion. The height of the adjacent central Coast Ranges and the Sierra Nevada is strongly seasonal and peaks during the dry late summer and autumn, out of phase with uplift of the valley floor during wetter months. Our results suggest that long-term and late-summer flexural uplift of the Coast Ranges reduce the effective normal stress resolved on the San Andreas Fault. This process brings the fault closer to failure, thereby providing a viable mechanism for observed seasonality in microseismicity at Parkfield and potentially affecting long-term seismicity rates for fault systems adjacent to the valley. We also infer that the observed contemporary uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada previously attributed to tectonic or mantle-derived forces is partly a consequence of human-caused groundwater depletion.

Urban and Agricultural Water Use in California, 1960–2015

Pacific Institute | June 22nd, 2020

Water is the lifeblood of California. It provides for the household needs of 40 million people. It generates electricity and cools power plants. It supports one of the mo

Water is the lifeblood of California. It provides for the household needs of 40 million people. It generates electricity and cools power plants. It supports one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world and various commercial and industrial activities, ultimately fueling the fifth largest economy in the world. Water is also critical to the health and viability of the state’s diverse aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. This paper examines statewide urban and agricultural water-use trends from 1960 to 2015 using data from the California Department of Water Resources (DWR). We find that California has experienced a dramatic decoupling between water use and growth. Since 1967, California’s population has doubled, and its economic output has increased by a factor of five. Yet statewide water use increased by only 20 percent over this period due to improvements in urban and agricultural efficiency, as well as a shift to higher-value crops and less water-intensive commercial and industrial activities.  Despite positive signs, water use in California remains high. Across the state, rivers and streams are under stress from overuse, and groundwater is over-tapped. Climate change and continued growth are increasing pressure on the state’s water resources, including on water supply, demand, and quality. To address these challenges, we must continue and even expand efforts to improve the water-use efficiency of our homes, businesses, industries, and farms. Moreover, we urge the state to improve data collection and online systems to make data more easily, quickly, and readily available.

Urban Water Management Plan Guidebook

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 30th, 2026

In 1983, the State of California Legislature (Legislature) enacted the Urban Water Management Planning Act (UWMP Act). The UWMP Act requires an urban water supplier (Supp

In 1983, the State of California Legislature (Legislature) enacted the Urban Water Management Planning Act (UWMP Act). The UWMP Act requires an urban water supplier (Supplier) providing water for municipal purposes to more than 3,000 customers or serving more than 3,000 acre-feet annually to adopt an Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) every five years, demonstrating water supply reliability in normal, single dry, and multiple dry water years. The UWMP Act also requires the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to report to the Legislature on the status of UWMPs. Appendix A contains copies of the UWMP Act and other sections of the California Water Code relevant to UWMPs. Appendix B shows revisions to the UWMP Act and to Water Code. There have been no requirement changes since 2020; only definitions have been added or updated. 

User Manual for the California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 13th, 2013

This report describes the input and output files for the California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSim). C2VSim is an integrated numeri

This report describes the input and output files for the California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSim). C2VSim is an integrated numerical model simulating land surface processes and groundwater and surface water flows in the main alluvial aquifer system of California’s Central Valley (figure 1). C2VSim was developed using the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) application, which couples a three-dimensional finite element groundwater simulation process with one-dimensional land surface, stream flow, lake, unsaturated zone and smallstream watershed simulation processes. The C2VSim version described in this report runs under IWFM version 3.02 and utilizes a coarse grid, and is thus referred to as version 3.02-CG. In addition, the input files for the C2VSim model are regularly updated to correct errors, incorporate improved input data or extend the simulation time period. These updates are referred to as revisions; this report describes the data in revision R374, released in June 2013. The C2VSim model inputs include monthly historical precipitation, stream inflows, surface water diversions, land use and crop acreages for the simulation period, October 1921 through September 2009. C2VSim dynamically calculates crop water demands, allocates contributions from precipitation, soil moisture and surface water diversions, and calculates the groundwater pumpage required to meet the remaining demand. The coarse grid version of the C2VSim model incorporates a finite element grid with 1392 elements, grouped into 21 water budget subregions (figure 1), which are further grouped by drainage basin into five hydrologic regions. The model subregions are based on Depletion Study Areas (DSAs), originally created by the DWR Division of Planning for estimating regional water supplies and demands. Hydrologic parameters (including hydraulic conductivities, storage parameters and recession coefficients) were calibrated to match observed values including groundwater heads, groundwater head differences between well pairs, surface water flows, and stream-groundwater flows for the period between September 1975 and October 2003. The model simulates the historical response of the Central Valley’s groundwater flow system to historical stresses, and can also be used to simulate the response to projected future stresses. Agricultural groundwater pumping is not monitored in the Central Valley, and the C2VSim model provides pumpage estimates that are considered robust because they are constrained spatially and temporally by the estimated demand and surface water supplies. The calibrated model is also being used as the basis for the groundwater flow component of CalSim 3, a water resources planning model for simulating operation of the California State Water Project (SWP) and Federal Central Valley Project (CVP).

Using Landsat and MODIS satellite collections to examine extent, timing, and potential impacts of surface water inundation in California croplands

Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment (RSASE) | October 1st, 2022

The state of California, United States of America produces many crop products that are both utilized domestically and exported throughout the world. With nearly 39,000 km

The state of California, United States of America produces many crop products that are both utilized domestically and exported throughout the world. With nearly 39,000 km2 of croplands, monitoring unintentional and intentional surface water inundation is important for water resource management and flood hazard readiness. We examine inundation dynamics in California croplands from 2003 to 2020 by intersecting monthly surface water maps (n = 216 months) derived using two satellite remote sensing platforms (Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer [MODIS]) with a high-quality cropland map generated by the California Department of Water Resources. Surface water maps were produced using the Dynamic Surface Water Extent model, in which satellite image pixels are classified into different levels of detection confidence. Our analysis focused on calculating monthly and annual occurrence of “high confidence” water for each satellite collection across eight cropland types and 58 counties. Results indicate that 49.9% (MODIS) to 56.4% (Landsat) of croplands were inundated at least once during the 18-year timespan. Rice crops, due to their unique need of consistent surface water and dominance as a crop type in CA, had the highest proportion of and mean annual inundation area, while citrus crops had the lowest. Mean monthly inundation patterns in most croplands followed California's precipitation patterns with high inundation during the winter and spring rainy season. At the county level, croplands in the southern Central Valley typically had high occurrences of inundation in conjunction with large crop areas. Exposure and sensitivity of inundation for three crop types (citrus, deciduous, and vineyards) that are typically less associated with intentional inundation were geographically variable, but overall were generally highest in counties in the southern Central Valley, California's primary agricultural region. Flood and precipitation related crop insurance claims indicated that rice had the highest mean indemnity payout for any month with damages typically occurring in March and April. Insurance claims were also high in deciduous fruit and nut crops, which had peak damages in February. A comparison between inundation results and insurance claims suggests that the inundation mapped by our process coincides with claim activity. These data elucidate water inundation patterns across the state that can serve to inform farmers, insurers, decision makers, resource managers, and flood mitigation professionals.

Using machine learning to predict 1,2,3-trichloropropane contamination from legacy non-point source pollution of groundwater in California's Central Valley

Elsevier | May 6th, 2023

1,2,3-tricholoropropane (TCP) is an impurity common in nematicides applied to agricultural soils from the 1940s to the 1980s. Evidence from animal studies indicates t

1,2,3-tricholoropropane (TCP) is an impurity common in nematicides applied to agricultural soils from the 1940s to the 1980s. Evidence from animal studies indicates that TCP is a probable human carcinogen. TCP leaches through the soil into groundwater where it persists and contaminates thousands of wells in Asia, Europe, and North America. In California, TCP contaminates drinking water wells, with the highest levels of TCP beneath agricultural land used to grow grapevines. This study performs a mass balance and evaluates the ability of three types of tree-based machine learning models to predict TCP concentration in California's Central Valley aquifer system: classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). To construct the models, multiple spatial explanatory variables were used, including historical agricultural land use data, irrigation levels, precipitation, soil type, groundwater age, redox state, and the presence of the co-contaminant nitrate. To estimate the amount of TCP applied to farmland in California, state historical pesticide and land use documents were used in the mass balance. Between 110,000 and 4,300,000 kg of TCP are estimated to have accumulated in the subsurface. Machine learning models indicate that the most important explanatory variables to predict TCP contamination of groundwater are precipitation, redox state, and the presence of the co-contaminant nitrate. Additionally, a 1000-m buffer area offers a slightly higher predictive performance as compared to 500-m and 1500-m buffers. Furthermore, the RF model outperforms CART and BRT for predictive performance. Finally, modeling using decision trees can predict TCP contamination levels in areas where monitoring is lacking, help target future TCP monitoring efforts, and aid in identifying areas to avoid when drilling new drinking water wells.