Tulare Lake

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | March 1st, 2016

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Improved Imaging of the Large-Scale Structure of a Groundwater System with Airborne Electromagnetic Data

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 17th, 2022

A groundwater model is a representation of a groundwater system used to both understand the properties and processes of the subsurface, and to manage the groundwater reso

A groundwater model is a representation of a groundwater system used to both understand the properties and processes of the subsurface, and to manage the groundwater resource. An important step in developing a groundwater model is describing the large-scale structure, the "plumbing system" that controls the groundwater flow. Given the size of many groundwater models, obtaining an accurate description of the large-scale structure can be a challenging task. The traditional approach has involved the drilling of wells. While wells can provide accurate information at the location of the wells, the spatial sampling of the subsurface that can be accomplished through the drilling of wells is limited. An airborne electromagnetic (AEM) method provides an alternative by using a geophysical measurement to map out the electrical resistivity to depths of hundreds of meters. Working with AEM data acquired in the Kaweah Subbasin in the Central Valley of California, we were able to image the large-scale structure - the bedrock surface and a thick clay layer. The key improvement was made by incorporating prior knowledge into the inversion of the data. Once we had obtained the large-scale structure, we found that this could be used to improve the imaging of the smaller-scale structure.

Improving Groundwater Security in the United States

The White House | December 14th, 2024

The U.S. is facing a serious and unprecedented groundwater challenge. In many aquifers, groundwater withdrawal has outpaced natural recharge, which is exacerbated by the

The U.S. is facing a serious and unprecedented groundwater challenge. In many aquifers, groundwater withdrawal has outpaced natural recharge, which is exacerbated by the changing climate and precipitation variability. Much of the water in the major aquifers in the U.S. is fossil water, recharged over 10,000 years ago, and will not be replaced naturally on human timescales. In the western U.S., groundwater resources are being depleted at alarming rates, mostly from agricultural withdrawal. The depletion has caused land subsidence and earth fissures as well as permanent reduction of storage capacity. The depletion has national and global consequences as non-renewable groundwater in the west is embedded in agricultural products transported to the rest of the U. S. and in agricultural commodities exported globally. Many federal agencies have programs to measure the quality and quantity of groundwater, as well as conservation programs for sustainable use of groundwater. PCAST applauds and endorses their efforts as well as those by state governments, non-governmental organizations, professional organizations, local communities, private citizens, and others, to manage their groundwater resources. To ensure the sustainability of this indispensable resource and mitigate risks from its depletion, it is imperative that we enhance our understanding and management of groundwater resources.

Inaction’s Economic Cost for California’s Water Supply Challenges

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | May 14th, 2025

California’s water system is in for challenges in coming decades as climate, groundwater policy, and environmental regulations reduce availability and increase variabil

California’s water system is in for challenges in coming decades as climate, groundwater policy, and environmental regulations reduce availability and increase variability in water supplies for agricultural and urban uses. A previous report estimated 4 to 9 million acre-feet (maf) per year of unavoidable reductions in existing water supplies, 12% to 25% of today’s water use (Lund et al. 2024). This report estimates the economic costs of not responding to these reductions in water availability.

Inadequate Government-Led Water-Quality Monitoring Hinders Improvement Efforts in the Salton Sea

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) | September 4th, 2025

California’s largest inland body of water, the Salton Sea, has faced severe environmental degradation, leaving lasting impacts on surrounding desert communities. Situat

California’s largest inland body of water, the Salton Sea, has faced severe environmental degradation, leaving lasting impacts on surrounding desert communities. Situated between Riverside and Imperial counties, the lake has endured the effects of jurisdictional challenges, climate change, and unsustainable agricultural practices that have exacerbated nutrient pollution to levels surpassing those found in most lakes across the United States. Data collected over 16 years of quarterly government sampling and 12 months of high-frequency sampling—conducted collaboratively by local communities and the University of California, Los Angeles—consistently reveal high concentrations of nitrates and dangerously low oxygen levels in the water column. These nutrient-rich conditions create an environment conducive to hydrogen sulfide emissions, which persist around the Salton Sea at levels that exceed health standards and raise ongoing concerns within the community. The State of California and the federal government are contractually obligated to restore the Salton Sea. To address the water-quality issues and their consequences, we recommend a combination of environmental and economic remediation efforts aimed at improving the Salton Sea’s ecosystem and its resulting impact on nearby communities.

Incomplete Determination of the 2020 Groundwater Sustainability Plans Submitted for the San Joaquin Valley – Kern County Subbasin

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 28th, 2022

Department management has reviewed the enclosed Staff Report, which recommends that the deficiencies identified should preclude approval of the Plan. Based on its review

Department management has reviewed the enclosed Staff Report, which recommends that the deficiencies identified should preclude approval of the Plan. Based on its review of the Staff Report, Department management is satisfied that staff have conducted a thorough evaluation and assessment of the Plan and concurs with, and hereby adopts, staff’s recommendation and all the corrective actions provided. The Department thus deems the Plan incomplete based on the Staff Report and the findings contained herein. A. The GSPs do not establish undesirable results that are consistent for the entire Subbasin. 1. While the Coordination Agreement presents Subbasin-wide undesirable results, the Subbasin’s fragmented approach towards establishing management criteria that define undesirable conditions in various parts of the Subbasin does not satisfy SGMA’s requirement to use same data and methodologies. B. The Subbasin’s chronic lowering of groundwater levels sustainable management criteria do not satisfy the requirements of SGMA and the GSP Regulations. 1. The GSPs relied on disparate methods to develop groundwater level minimum thresholds across the numerous GSPs and management areas. 2. The GSPs do not consistently and sufficiently document the effects of their selected minimum thresholds on beneficial uses and users in the Subbasin, nor explain how the minimum thresholds and measurable objectives that are set below historical lows will impact other applicable sustainability indicators, specifically water quality, land subsidence, and reduction of groundwater storage. C. The Subbasin’s land subsidence sustainable management criteria do not satisfy the requirements of SGMA and the GSP Regulations. 1. The Plan lacks a Subbasin-wide, coordinated approach to establishing land subsidence sustainable management criteria. 2. The GSPs and management areas that use their minimum thresholds for the chronic lowering of groundwater levels as proxy criteria for subsidence do not sufficiently demonstrate that groundwater levels (specifically groundwater levels below historical lows) are a reasonable proxy to avoid land subsidence that would substantially interfere with surface land uses.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 21st, 2015

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

Influence of agricultural managed aquifer recharge on nitrate transport: The role of soil texture and flooding frequency

Soil Science Society of America (SSSA) | June 9th, 2021

Agricultural managed aquifer recharge (Ag-MAR) is a concept in which farmland is flooded during the winter using excess surface water to recharge the underlying groundwat

Agricultural managed aquifer recharge (Ag-MAR) is a concept in which farmland is flooded during the winter using excess surface water to recharge the underlying groundwater. In this study, we show how different recharge practices affect NO3− leaching and mineralization–denitrification processes in different soil systems. Two contrasting soil textures (sand and fine sandy loam) from the Central Valley, Califor- nia, were repeatedly flooded with 15 cm of water at varying time intervals in field and soil column experiments. Nitrogen species (NO3–, NH4+, total N), total C, dis- solved O2, and moisture content were measured throughout the experiments. Results show that when flooding occurs at longer intervals (every 1–2 wk), N mineralization increases, leading to an increase of mobile NO3− in the upper root zone and leach- ing of significant quantities of NO3− from both soil textures (137.3 ± 6.6% [sand] and 145.7 ± 5.8% [fine sandy loam] of initial residual soil NO3−) during subsequent flooding events. Laboratory mineralization incubations show that long flooding inter- vals promote mineralization and production of excess NO3− at rates of 0.11–3.93 mg N kg–1 wk–1 (sand) and 0.08–3.41 mg N kg–1 wk–1 (fine sandy loam). Decreasing the flooding frequency to 72 h reduces potential mineralization, decreasing the amount of NO3− leached during flooding events (31.7 ± 3.8% [sand] and 64.7 ± 10.4% [fine sandy loam] of initial residual soil NO3–). The results indicate that implementing recharge as repeated events over a long (multiple-week) time horizon might increase the total amount of NO3− potentially available for leaching to groundwater.

Information for the Future: The West Side San Joaquin Valley Project

West Side San Joaquin Valley Coordinating Council, University of California, Water Resources Center | September 1st, 1970

Information Needs for Water Markets: Fair and Effective Water Markets Require Adequate Measurement and Reporting of Diversion and Use

University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) | November 14th, 2024