Tulare Lake

Further Trade Wars Will Harm California Agriculture

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | September 30th, 2024

As protectionist policies gain momentum in the United States, the future of California’s agricultural trade faces pessimism. With proposals to expand tariffs on imports

As protectionist policies gain momentum in the United States, the future of California’s agricultural trade faces pessimism. With proposals to expand tariffs on imports from China and other nations, California farmers—who depend on global markets as an outlet for their almonds, wine, and other agricultural goods—are aware that there would be trade retaliation from our trading partners. If a significant new trade war develops, California could see a quarter of its agricultural exports wiped out, costing the state’s economy $6 billion annually.

Future Changes in Global Atmospheric Rivers Projected by CMIP6 Models

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 31st, 2024

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter st

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 15th, 2020

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often i

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius- Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes.

Gage Gap

Nature Conservancy | October 31st, 2018

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, whi

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, which moves millions of gallons of water from north to south and east to west. Thirty-nine million people and our $47 billion agricultural industry rely on that water, not to mention wildlife from the Sierra to the sea. And yet we have surprisingly little data about how much water is moving through our streams at any given time. There are over 3,600 locations in California where stream gages have been active at some point, but only 54% have been active recently. And even fewer of those provide the kind of rich, real-time reporting needed to manage what is arguably our state’s most precious and contentious resource.

Geologic controls on groundwater salinity reversal in North Coles Levee Oil Field, southern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA

Environmental Earth Sciences (Springer) | May 29th, 2022

This paper documents a reversal in the groundwater salinity depth gradient in the North Coles Levee Oil Field in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Salinity, measured in

This paper documents a reversal in the groundwater salinity depth gradient in the North Coles Levee Oil Field in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Salinity, measured in mg/L, was mapped with water quality data from groundwater and oil and gas wells and salinity estimated from oil and gas well borehole geophysical logs using Archie's equation. The resulting three-dimensional salinity volume shows groundwater salinity increasing with depth through the Tulare and San Joaquin Formations to about 50,000 mg/L at 1100 m depth, then decreasing to 10,000–31,000 mg/L in the Etchegoin Formation at 1400 m depth. The high salinity zone occurs near the base of the San Joaquin Formation in sand lenses in shales that have been interpreted as representing a mudflat environment. The groundwater and produced water geochemistry show formation waters lie on the seawater dilution line, indicating the salinity structure is largely the result of dilution or evaporation of seawater and not due to water–rock interactions. Instead, changing depositional environments linked to decreasing sea level may be responsible for variably saline water at or near the time of deposition, leading to a salinity reversal preserved in connate waters. The steepness of the salinity reversal varies laterally, possibly due to post-depositional freshwater recharge allowed by thick sands, alternatively, by a change in connate water composition due to a lateral facies change present at the time of deposition. These results illustrate geologic and paleogeographic processes that drive the vertical salinity structure of groundwater in shallow alluvial basins.

Geology of the Fresh Ground‐water Basin of the Central Valley, California, with Texture Maps and Sections

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 1st, 1986

The Central Valley of California, which is about 400 miles long and averages about 50 miles wide, comprises about 20,000 square miles. Geologically, the valley is

The Central Valley of California, which is about 400 miles long and averages about 50 miles wide, comprises about 20,000 square miles. Geologically, the valley is a large asymmetric trough that is bounded by granitic, metamorphic, and marine sedimentary rocks of pre-Tertiary age. The trough has been filled with as much as 6 vertical miles of sediment in the San Joaquin Valley and as much as 10 vertical miles of sediment in the Sacramento Valley; these sedi- ments range in age from Jurassic to Holocene. Some volcanic rocks and deposits crop out in the valley, but of those only the Tuscan Formation in the northeastern part of the Sacramento Valley is of major importance to the fresh ground-water basin. Post-Eocene continental rocks and deposits contain most of the fresh water in the Central Valley; they crop out virtually over the whole valley and in most places overlie or contain saline water at depth. Continental rocks and deposits of Tertiary age include the Mehrten Formation. The Mehrten is of great importance to the fresh ground-water basin of the Central Valley and yields large quantities of water to wells.

Geology of the fresh ground‐water basin, Central Valley, California, with texture maps and sections

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 17th, 1986

The Central Valley of California, which is about 400 miles long and averages about 50 miles wide, comprises about 20,000 square miles. Geologically, the valley is

The Central Valley of California, which is about 400 miles long and averages about 50 miles wide, comprises about 20,000 square miles. Geologically, the valley is a large asymmetric trough that is bounded by granitic, metamorphic, and marine sedimentary rocks of pre-Tertiary age. The trough has been filled with as much as 6 vertical miles of sediment in the San Joaquin Valley and as much as 10 vertical miles of sediment in the Sacramento Valley; these sedi- ments range in age from Jurassic to Holocene. Some volcanic rocks and deposits crop out in the valley, but of those only the Tuscan Formation in the northeastern part of the Sacramento Valley is of major importance to the fresh ground-water basin. Post-Eocene continental rocks and deposits contain most of the fresh water in the Central Valley; they crop out virtually over the whole valley and in most places overlie or contain saline water at depth. Continental rocks and deposits of Tertiary age include the Mehrten Formation. The Mehrten is of great importance to the fresh ground-water basin of the Central Valley and yields large quantities of water to wells. Although continental rocks and deposits of Tertiary and Quaternary age compose a number of formations and informal deposits, in total they constitute the major aquifer of the Central Valley. In most places, similarity in sediment type between the continental deposits and some underlying rocks and deposits and even between separate units of continental rocks and deposits makes mapping of subsurface geologic contacts difficult if not practically im- possible. In this respect, a unit that can be mapped on the surface is difficult to delineate in the subsurface, and, although such a unit can be called an aquifer, it merges with similar units in the subsurface to form a major, widespread aquifer. Continental rocks and deposits of Tertiary and Quaternary age include (1) the Kern River Formation; (2) the Laguna Formation; (3) the Tulare Formation; (4) the Tehama Formation; and (5) a number of younger formations, as well as some informally named deposits. These deposits and formations also include lacustrine and marsh deposits, which are much thicker and more extensive in the San Joaquin Valley than in the Sacramento Valley. These continental rocks and deposits generally crop out as wide belts along the flanks of the Central Valley and range in thickness from 0 foot along the flanks to about 15,000 feet in the extreme southern part. In general, the rocks and deposits consist of a heterogeneous mixture of generally poorly sorted clay, silt, sand, and gravel; in some places they consist of more consolidated sediments, such as mudstone and sandstone. Yields to wells from these rocks and deposits, except the lacustrine and marsh deposits, range from about 20 gallons per minute to 4,500 gallons per minute. Lacustrine and marsh deposits crop out in the San Joaquin Valley but not in the Sacramento Valley. Beneath Tulare Lake bed in the San Joaquin Valley, the lacustrine and marsh deposits, which constitute a thick plug of clay and silt from which lenses of clay and silt emanate at irregular intervals, are in places more than 3,600 feet thick. The lens mapped as the E Clay in the San Joaquin Valley is the most extensive lacustrine clay in the entire Central Valley and includes the Corcoran Clay Member of the Tulare Formation. More recent mapping has shown that the E Clay in the extreme southern part of the valley is shallower than previous reports had indicated; therefore, in this report the clay is referred to as the modified E Clay. Perhaps the expansion of lakes and the resulting deposition of extensive clays in the San Joaquin Valley occurred principally because of a large downwarping basin beneath an area known as Tulare Lake bed, and perhaps a similar expansion and deposition did not occur in the Sacramento Valley because a similar downwarping basin probably had not developed there. Continental deposits of Quaternary age crop out chiefly along the major rivers and streams of the valley as well as other low-lying areas; the deposits include river deposits, flood-basin deposits, and sand dunes. River deposits, including channel and flood-plain depos- its, are considered to be the most permeable deposits in the valley; in general, they are not tapped by wells. Flood-basin deposits consist largely of fine-grained beds that restrict the vertical movement of water. Sand dunes are not considered important aquifers because they generally lie above the water table. The large, asymmetrical, northwestward-trending structural trough of the Central Valley is the principal structure controlling the occurrence and movement of ground water in the area. Because the flanks of the valley are higher than its axis, recharge from tributary rivers and streams has caused heads in the ground water along the flanks to be higher than those along the axis. Therefore, the overall ground-water movement in the Central Valley is from the flanks toward the axis and from there toward the delta area. Secondary structures in the valley, such as arches and faults, also influence the occurrence and movement of ground water. As it is used in this report, "texture" means the proportion of coarse-grained to fine-grained sediment in sedimentary rocks and deposits. In the Central Valley, most of the deposits for which data are available generally contain no more than 40 to 60 percent of coarse-grained sediment, where coarse-grained sediment includes clayey and silty sand and gravel. Texture columns, maps, and sections, in depth intervals of 300 feet, show that the alluvial deposits of the Central Valley are a heterogeneous mixture whose character ranges over short distances and depths from chiefly fine-grained to chiefly coarse-grained and vice versa. Nevertheless, some areas are underlain chiefly by fine-grained sediment and others by coarse-grained sediment; sediments of like size in an area indicate that sources and depositional environment probably were similar for long periods of time.

Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Publisher not available | October 16th, 2025

Increasing ENSO amplitude and teleconnection patterns imply that remote extratropical precipitation responses, such as in Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula (F

Increasing ENSO amplitude and teleconnection patterns imply that remote extratropical precipitation responses, such as in Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula (Fig. 5), will also become stronger between alternating El Niño and La Niña events. Even though the recurrence of these events may become more predictable due to the increased regularity/periodicity and amplitude (Fig. 1)44, future ENSO teleconnections might generate enhanced whiplash effects on hydroclimate, which requires additional planning and management strategies to minimize the costs of climate damage. While similar increases in ENSO regularity and amplitude can be found in some CMIP6 model projections (Fig. 2), future work needs to assess the detailed dynamics across these models and assess the likelihood of the ENSO regime changes seen in AWI-CM3.

Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 31st, 2023

Water is a critical resource, but ensuring its availability faces challenges from climate extremes and human intervention. In this Review, we evaluate the current and his

Water is a critical resource, but ensuring its availability faces challenges from climate extremes and human intervention. In this Review, we evaluate the current and historical evolution of water resources, considering surface water and groundwater as a single, interconnected resource. Total water storage trends have varied across regions over the past century. Satellite data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) show declining, stable and rising trends in total water storage over the past two decades in various regions globally. Groundwater monitoring provides longer-term context over the past century, showing rising water storage in northwest India, central Pakistan and the northwest United States, and declining water storage in the US High Plains and Central Valley. Climate variability causes some changes in water storage, but human intervention, particularly irrigation, is a major driver. Water-resource resilience can be increased by diversifying management strategies. These approaches include green solutions, such as forest and wetland preservation, and grey solutions, such as increasing supplies (desalination, wastewater reuse), enhancing storage in surface reservoirs and depleted aquifers, and transporting water. A diverse portfolio of these solutions, in tandem with managing groundwater and surface water as a single resource, can address human and ecosystem needs while building a resilient water system.