South Lahontan

Future Changes in Global Atmospheric Rivers Projected by CMIP6 Models

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 31st, 2024

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter st

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 15th, 2020

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often i

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius- Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes.

Gage Gap

Nature Conservancy | October 31st, 2018

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, whi

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, which moves millions of gallons of water from north to south and east to west. Thirty-nine million people and our $47 billion agricultural industry rely on that water, not to mention wildlife from the Sierra to the sea. And yet we have surprisingly little data about how much water is moving through our streams at any given time. There are over 3,600 locations in California where stream gages have been active at some point, but only 54% have been active recently. And even fewer of those provide the kind of rich, real-time reporting needed to manage what is arguably our state’s most precious and contentious resource.

Geochemistry and isotope hydrology of representative aquifers in the Great Basin region of Nevada, Utah, and adjacent States

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 1996

Geohydrology and Evapotranspiration at Franklin Lake Playa, Inyo County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 1997

Geohydrology, Geochemistry, and Groundwater Simulation (1992–2011) and Analysis of Potential Water-Supply Management Options, 2010–60, of the Langford Basin, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 30th, 2013

Groundwater withdrawals began in 1992 from the Langford Basin within the Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), California. From April 1992 to December 2010

Groundwater withdrawals began in 1992 from the Langford Basin within the Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), California. From April 1992 to December 2010, approximately 12,300 acre-feet of water (averaging about 650 acre-feet per year) has been withdrawn from the basin and transported to the adjacent Irwin Basin. Since withdrawals began, water levels in the basin have declined by as much as 40 feet, and the quality of the groundwater withdrawn from the basin has deteriorated. The U.S. Geological Survey collected geohydrologic data from Langford Basin during 1992–2011 to determine the quantity and quality of groundwater available in the basin. Geophysical surveys, including gravity, seismic refraction, and time-domain electromagnetic induction surveys, were conducted to determine the depth and shape of the basin, to delineate depths to the Quaternary-Tertiary interface, and to map the depth to the water table and changes in water quality. Data were collected from existing wells and test holes, as well as 11 monitor wells that were installed at 5 sites as part of this study . Water-quality samples collected from wells in the basin were used to determine the groundwater chemistry within the basin and to delineate potential sources of poor-quality groundwater. Analysis of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in groundwater indicates that present-day precipitation is not a major source of recharge to the basin. Tritium and carbon-14 data indicate that most of the basin was recharged prior to 1952, and the groundwater in the basin has an apparent age of 12,500 to 30,000 years. Recharge to the basin, estimated to be less than 50 acre-feet per year, has not been suffcient to replenish the water that is being withdrawn from the basin. year of natural recharge derived from precipitation runoff and as much as 40 acre-feet per year of underfow from the Irwin Basin. Between April 1992 and December 2010, an average of about 650 acre-feet per year of water was withdrawn from the Langford Basin. Groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge resulted in a net loss of 11,670 acre-feet of groundwater storage within the basin for the simulation period. A numerical groundwater-fow model was developed for the Langford Basin to better understand the aquifer system used by the Fort Irwin NTC as part of its water supply, and to provide a tool to help manage groundwater resources at the NTC. Measured groundwater-level declines since the initiation of withdrawals (1992–2011) were used to calibrate the groundwater-fow model. The simulated recharge was about 46 acre-feet per year, including approximately 6 acre-feet per year of natural recharge derived from precipitation runoff and as much as 40 acre-feet per year of underflow from the Irwin Basin. Between April 1992 and December 2010, an average of about 650 acre-feet per year of water was withdrawn from the Langford Basin. Groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge resulted in a net loss of 11,670 acre-feet of groundwater storage within the basin for the simulation period. The Fort Irwin NTC is considering various groundwater-management options to address the limited water resources in the Langford Basin. The calibrated Langford Basin groundwater-flow model was used to evaluate the hydrologic effects of four groundwater-withdrawal scenarios being considered by the Fort Irwin NTC over the next 50 years (January 2011 through December 2060). Continuation of the 2010 withdrawal rate in the three existing production wells will result in 70 feet of additional drawdown in the central part of the basin. Redistributing the 2010 withdrawal rate equally to the three existing wells and two proposed new wells in the northern and southern parts of the basin would result in about 10 feet less drawdown in the central part of the basin but about 100 feet of additional drawdown in the new well in the northern part of the basin and about 50 feet of additional drawdown in the new well in the southern part of the basin. Reducing the withdrawals from the three existing production wells in the central part of the basin from about 45,000 acre-feet to about 32,720 acre-feet would result in about 40 feet of additional drawdown in the central basin near the pumping wells, about 25 feet less than if withdrawals were not reduced. The combination of reducing and redistributing the cumulative withdrawals to the three existing and two proposed new wells results in about 40 feet of additional drawdown in the central and southern parts of the basin and about 70 feet in the northern part of the basin. These results show that reducing and redistributing the groundwater withdrawals would maintain the upper aquifer at greater than 50 percent of its predevelopment saturated thickness throughout the groundwater basin. The scenarios simulated for this study demonstrate how the calibrated model can be utilized to evaluate the hydrologic effects of different water-management strategies.

Geohydrology, Geochemistry, and Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Flow and Land Subsidence in the Bicycle Basin, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 19th, 2018

Groundwater pumping from Bicycle Groundwater Basin (referred to as Bicycle Basin) in the Fort Irwin National Training Center, California, began in 1967. From 1967 to Dece

Groundwater pumping from Bicycle Groundwater Basin (referred to as Bicycle Basin) in the Fort Irwin National Training Center, California, began in 1967. From 1967 to December 2010, about 46,000 acre-feet of water had been pumped from the basin and transported to the Irwin Basin. During this time, not only did water levels in the basin decline by as much as 100 feet, the quality of the groundwater pumped from the basin also deteriorated in some wells. The U.S. Geological Survey collected geohydrologic data from existing wells, test holes, and 16 additional monitoring wells installed at 6 sites in Bicycle Basin during 1992–2011 to determine the quantity and quality of groundwater available in the basin. Geophysical surveys, including electrical, gravity, and seismic refraction surveys, were completed to help determine the geometry of the structural basin, delineate depths to the interface between Quaternary and Tertiary rocks, map the depth to the water table, and used to develop a geohydrologic framework and groundwater-flow model for Bicycle Basin. Water samples were used to determine the groundwater quality in the basin and to delineate potential sources of poor-quality groundwater. Analysis of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in groundwater indicated that present-day precipitation is not a major source of recharge to the basin. Tritium and carbon-14 data indicated that most of the groundwater in the basin was recharged prior to 1952 and had an apparent age of 15,625–39,350 years. Natural recharge to the basin was not sufficient to replenish the groundwater pumped from the basin. Interferograms from synthetic aperture radar data (InSAR), analyzed to evaluate land-surface subsidence between 1993 and 2010, showed 0.23 to 1.1 feet of subsidence during this period near one production well north of Bicycle Lake (dry) playa. A groundwater-flow model of Bicycle Basin was developed and calibrated using groundwater levels for 1964–2010, and a subsidence model using land-surface deformation data for 1993–2010. Between January 1967 and December 2010, the simulated total recharge from precipitation runoff and underflow from adjacent basins was about 5,100 acre-feet and pumpage from the Bicycle Basin was about 47,000 acre-feet of water. Total outflows exceeded natural recharge during this period, resulting in a net loss of about 42,100 acre-feet of groundwater storage in the basin. The Fort Irwin National Training Center is considering various groundwater-management options in the Bicycle Basin. The groundwater-flow model was used to (1) evaluate changes in groundwater levels and subsidence with the addition of capture and recharge of simulated runoff in retention basins (scenario 1) for predevelopment through 2010; (2) simulate a base case (scenario 2) for reference; and (3) compare projections of alternative future pumping strategies for 2011–60 (scenarios 3–5). Model results from the runoff-capture simulation (scenario 1) indicated that total recharge, including runoff captured using retention basins, locally increased water levels, which partially offset, but did not mitigate, groundwater depletion associated with pumping. Groundwater-storage depletion in scenario 1 was about 14 percent less than without runoff capture. Simulated-drawdown results in model layer 1 in the eastern part of the basin indicated that, because of the captured runoff, simulated heads were as much as 100 feet higher in December 2010 than prior to the onset of development in 1967. In contrast, simulated drawdown for model without runoff capture indicated that, without captured runoff, simulated heads for December 2010 in this area were 80–90 feet lower than during the predevelopment period. Subsidence was mitigated slightly in scenario 1 compared to without runoff capture; the largest decrease in subsidence at observation sites was about 0.07 feet. Scenario 2 results indicated that simulated drawdown in model layer 6 at the end of 2060 ranged from about 46 to 135 feet. Subsidence at observation sites at the end of 2060 ranged from 0.83 to 2.8 feet. Reducing the base case pumping rate by 25 percent in the existing production well in the subsidence area and redistributing the pumpage to the other two production wells (scenario 3) resulted in a reduction of drawdown in the subsidence area compared with the base case (scenario 2). The difference in subsidence at the end of 2060 between scenario 3 and the base case was small (less than 0.07 feet) for all observation locations. Repeating the simulation scenario 3 but additionally reducing the basin-wide pumpage by 3 percent per year from 2011 through 2020 (scenario 4) resulted in about 60 feet less drawdown in the subsidence area than for the base case. Subsidence at observation sites ranged from 0.12 to 0.43 feet less than for the base case. Reducing the pumpage in the existing production well in the subsidence area to zero, while continuing the base case pumping rate in the other two existing production wells (scenario 5), resulted in more than 100 feet less drawdown in the subsidence area than in the base case. The simulated subsidence at the end of 2060 ranged from about 0.19 to about 1.16 feet less than in the base case, indicating that the discontinuation of pumpage at well 14N/3E-14P1 would result in substantially reduced subsidence. Overall, continued water-table declines dewatered the more productive upper layers of the aquifer, causing more groundwater to be withdrawn from deeper, lower yielding layers and resulting in faster declines in the water table and greater vertical gradients in the future. If the water table declines into the perforated intervals of wells, increased maintenance costs and altered well-water quality could potentially result. Water-management scenario 1 indicated that adding managed recharge resulted in a modest decrease (4–5 percent) in the rate of subsidence compared with historical conditions. The reduction of pumpage in the area of subsidence and redistribution of the amount of reduced pumpage to wells in other parts of the basin (scenario 3) resulted in modest decreases (5–6 percent) in the rate of subsidence compared with continuation of historical pumpage. Including either a basin-wide reduction of pumpage of 3 percent annually (cumulatively, a 24 percent decrease) as well as redistribution of the pumpage (scenario 4) or discontinuing pumping in the area of greatest subsidence (scenario 5), however, demonstrated that subsidence could be reduced substantially (22–26 percent for scenario 4 and 62–68 percent for scenario 5) compared with subsidence for continuing historical pumpage.

Geologic Map and Borehole Stratigraphy of Hinkley Valley and Vicinity, San Bernardino County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 17th, 2020

Hinkley Valley, in the central to western Mojave Desert of southeastern California, has a long historical record owing to its position as a crossroads for rail and road t

Hinkley Valley, in the central to western Mojave Desert of southeastern California, has a long historical record owing to its position as a crossroads for rail and road traffic and its position adjacent to the Mojave River. Subflow in the Mojave River provided groundwater recharge that maintained water consumption and demand by way of shallow wells for local agriculture (Thompson, 1929) in the valley. Its crossroads position led to construction of several power-transmission lines, pipeline, and communications cable routes that transect Hinkley Valley. One of these, a natural gas pipeline and its associated compressor station, was the locus of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), releases into, and consequent contamination of, groundwater (Izbicki and Groover, 2018). Understanding the movement and fate of the contaminants is a complex hydrologic and geo-chemical problem. Geologic mapping of the Hinkley Valley area provides framework elements for use in resolving this problem.

Geologic Setting, Geohydrology, and Ground-Water Quality near the Helendale Fault in the Mojave River Basin, San Bernardino County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 15th, 2003

The proximity of the Moja ve River groundwater basin to the highly urbanized Los Angeles region has resulted in rapid population growth and, consequently, an increase in

The proximity of the Moja ve River groundwater basin to the highly urbanized Los Angeles region has resulted in rapid population growth and, consequently, an increase in the demand for water. The Mojave River, the primary source of surface water for the region, normally is dry—except for periods of flow after intense storms; therefore, the region relies almost entirely on ground water to meet its agricultural and municipal needs. The area where the Helendale Fault intersects the Mojave River is of particular hydrogeologic interest because of its importance as a boundary between two water-management subareas of the Mojave Water Agency. The fault is the boundary between the upper Mojave River Basin (Oeste, Alto, and Este subareas) and the lower Mojave River Basin (Centro and Baja subareas); specifically, the fault is the boundary between the Alto and the Centro subareas. To obtain the information necessary to help better understand the hydrogeology of the area near the fault, multiple-well monitoring sites were installed, the surface geology was mapped in detail, and water-level and water-quality data were collected from wells in the study area.