South Coast

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter st

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 15th, 2020

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often i

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius- Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes.

Gage Gap

Nature Conservancy | October 31st, 2018

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, whi

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, which moves millions of gallons of water from north to south and east to west. Thirty-nine million people and our $47 billion agricultural industry rely on that water, not to mention wildlife from the Sierra to the sea. And yet we have surprisingly little data about how much water is moving through our streams at any given time. There are over 3,600 locations in California where stream gages have been active at some point, but only 54% have been active recently. And even fewer of those provide the kind of rich, real-time reporting needed to manage what is arguably our state’s most precious and contentious resource.

Generalized Streamflow Relations of the San Bernardino and Eastern San Gabriel Mountains, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 19th, 1972

Geohydrologic and Water-Quality Data in the Vicinity of the Rialto-Colton Fault, San Bernardino, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 7th, 2014

The Rialto-Colton Basin is in western San Bernardino County, about 60 miles east of Los Angeles, California. The basin is bounded by faults on the northeast and southwest

The Rialto-Colton Basin is in western San Bernardino County, about 60 miles east of Los Angeles, California. The basin is bounded by faults on the northeast and southwest sides and contains multiple barriers to groundwater flow. The structural geology of the basin leads to complex hydrology. Between 2001 and 2008, in an effort to better understand the complex hydrologic system of the Rialto-Colton Basin, seven multiple-well monitoring sites were constructed. Two to six observation wells were installed in the borehole at each site; a total of 32 observation wells were installed. This report presents geologic, hydrologic, and water-quality data collected from these seven multiple-well monitoring sites. Descriptions of the collected drill cuttings were compiled into lithologic logs for each monitoring site. The lithologic logs are summarized along with the geophysical logs, including gamma-ray, spontaneous potential, resistivity, and electromagnetic induction tool logs. At selected sites, sonic tool logs also were recorded. Periodic water-level measurements are reported, and water-level data are displayed on hydrographs. Water levels at multiple-well monitoring sites in the northern part of the study area differed between the shallow and deep observation wells; in the remaining multiple-well monitoring sites, water levels differed little with depth. Along the southern trace of the Rialto-Colton Fault, water levels are slightly higher east of the fault than west of the fault. Selected water-quality data for 21 of the observation wells show water from wells in the northern and central parts of the study area is calcium-carbonate water. In the southern part of the study area, water from wells screened above 400 feet below land surface is of mixed type or is calcium-carbonate water. Water from wells screened greater than 400 feet below land surface in the southern part of the study area is sodium-carbonate or sodium-mixed anion water. Water from most wells in the study area plots above the Global Meteoric Water Line along an apparent local meteoric water line, indicating the water has not experienced substantial evaporation before infiltration. A few samples from shallow wells in the study area plot slightly to the right of the Global Meteoric Water Line, possibly indicating the water experienced some evaporation before recharge.

Geohydrology, Geochemistry, and Ground-Water Simulation-Optimization of the Central and West Coast Basins, Los Angeles County, California By

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 3rd, 2003

Historical ground-water development of the Central and West Coast Basins in Los Angeles County, California through the first half of the 20th century caused large water-l

Historical ground-water development of the Central and West Coast Basins in Los Angeles County, California through the first half of the 20th century caused large water-level declines and induced seawater intrusion. Because of this, the basins were adjudicated and numerous groundwater management activities were implemented, including increased water spreading, construction of injection barriers, increased delivery of imported water, and increased use of reclaimed water. In order to improve the scientific basis for these water management activities, an extensive data collection program was undertaken, geohydrological and geochemical analyses were conducted, and ground-water flow simulation and optimization models were developed. In this project, extensive hydraulic, geologic, and chemical data were collected from new multiple-well monitoring sites. On the basis of these data and data compiled and collected from existing wells, the regional geohydrologic framework was characterized. For the purposes of modeling, the three-dimensional aquifer system was divided into four aquifer systems—the Recent, Lakewood, Upper San Pedro, and Lower San Pedro aquifer systems. Most pumpage in the two basins is from the Upper San Pedro aquifer system. Assessment of the three-dimensional geochemical data provides insight into the sources of recharge and the movement and age of ground water in the study area. Major-ion data indicate the chemical character of water containing less than 500 mg/L dissolved solids generally grades from calcium-bicarbonate/sulfate to sodium bicarbonate. Sodium-chloride water, high in dissolved solids, is present in wells near the coast. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen provide information on sources of recharge to the basin, including imported water and water originating in the San Fernando Valley, San Gabriel Valley, and the coastal plain and surrounding hills. Tritium and carbon-14 data provide information on relative ground-water ages. Water with abundant tritium (greater than 8 tritium units) is found in and downgradient from the Montebello Forebay and near the seawater barrier projects, indicating recent recharge. Water with less than measurable tritium is present in, and downgradient from, the Los Angeles Forebay and in most wells in the West Coast Basin. Water from several deep wells was analyzed for carbon-14. Uncorrected estimates of age for these samples range from 600 to more than 20,000 years before present. Chemical and isotopic data are combined to evaluate changes in chemical character along flow paths emanating from the Montebello and Los Angeles Forebays.

Geologic Analysis, Ventura River Watershed

Daniel B. Stephens & Associates, Inc. (DBS&A) | March 3rd, 2020

 This memorandum summarizes geologic analysis performed for the Ventura River Watershed (VRW) by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates, Inc. (DBS&A) in support of nume

 This memorandum summarizes geologic analysis performed for the Ventura River Watershed (VRW) by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates, Inc. (DBS&A) in support of numerical model development. The geologic analysis presented herein will be used, in conjunction with other information as described in the project Study Plan (Geosyntec and DBS&A, 2019), to assign three-dimensional model layer geometry, initial model hydraulic properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity), and the presence of boundary conditions. This geologic analysis is based on data available to DBS&A at the time the analysis was conducted. We anticipate that development of the VRW geologic conceptual model may be revised as additional data becomes available and as numerical model development proceeds. 

Geologic, Hydrologic, and Water-Quality Data From Multiple-Well Monitoring Sites in the Bunker Hill and Yucaipa Groundwater Subbasins, San Bernardino County, California, 1974–2016

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 31st, 2018

In 1974, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District, initiated a study to assess the regional groun

In 1974, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District, initiated a study to assess the regional groundwater resources in the Bunker Hill Subbasin of the Upper Santa Ana Valley Groundwater Basin in San Bernardino County, California. The study area expanded east into the Yucaipa Subbasin in 1996. This report compiles the geologic (borehole lithology and geophysical logs) and hydrologic (water- quality and water-level) data collected from 1974–2016 for 11 multiple-well monitoring sites (48 individual wells) constructed by the USGS in the Bunker Hill (7 sites) and Yucaipa (4 sites) Groundwater Subbasins. Approximately 240 water-quality samples from the 11 sites were analyzed for constituents including major and minor ions, nutrients, selected trace elements, organic wastewater compounds (OWCs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), pesticides and pesticide degradates, the stable isotopes of hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen, and the radiogenic isotopes of tritium and carbon-14. All environmental data associated with these sites are available on the project web page for the San Bernardino Optimal Basin Management study and the Yucaipa Valley Hydrogeology study. Quality-assurance blank samples were processed periodically throughout the study and show that approximately 2.4 percent of the analytical results for major and minor ions, trace elements, and nutrients, and 1.5 percent of the results for VOCs fall below the acceptable study reporting limits and therefore are censored.

Geology and Hydrogeology of the Yucaipa Groundwater Subbasin, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 19th, 2022

The Yucaipa groundwater subbasin (referred to in this report as the Yucaipa subbasin) is located about 75 miles (mi) east of of Los Angeles and about 12 mi southeast of t

The Yucaipa groundwater subbasin (referred to in this report as the Yucaipa subbasin) is located about 75 miles (mi) east of of Los Angeles and about 12 mi southeast of the City of San Bernardino. In the Yucaipa subbasin, as in much of southern California, limited annual rainfall and large water demands can strain existing water supplies; therefore, understanding local surface water and groundwater conditions is essential for managing these resources. To better understand the hydrogeology and water resources in the Yucaipa subbasin, especially groundwater, the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District and the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a cooperative study to evaluate the hydrogeologic system of the Yucaipa subbasin and the encompassing Yucaipa Valley watershed. Previous studies of the area provided information on general geologic and hydrologic conditions, but this study provides the first comprehensive definition of the hydrogeology of the subsurface throughout the entire subbasin. The Yucaipa subbasin is located between the northwest trending San Andreas fault zone and San Jacinto fault. Several northeast-trending dip-slip faults dissect the Yucaipa subbasin, providing the mechanism for structural relief within the sediment-filled subbasin and between the subbasin and surrounding mountains and highlands. Several of these dip-slip faults have been previously identified as potential barriers to groundwater flow. This report provides a synthesis of previous studies and a discussion of the geologic interpretations that were used as the foundation for hydrogeologic classification of the Yucaipa subbasin. Notably, this report (1) adopts the recently named and classified sedimentary deposits of Live Oak Canyon geologic formation and extends the mapped distribution of the formation into the Yucaipa subbasin, and (2) adopts the interpretation that activity along the Banning fault predates the deposition of most basin-fill sedimentary materials in the Yucaipa subbasin. Four hydrogeologic units were classified in the Yucaipa subbasin: (1) crystalline basement, (2) consolidated sedimentary materials, (3) unconsolidated sediment, and (4) surficial materials. The crystalline basement unit forms the bottom boundary of the aquifer system, and the three other units comprise the basin-fill aquifer system. The four hydrogeologic units vary in extent, thickness, and structural relief across the subbasin, with the unconsolidated sediment unit serving as the primary aquifer unit. A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed for the Yucaipa subbasin and surrounding area to characterize the thickness, extent, and hydrogeologic variability of the aquifer system. Geologic maps, borehole geophysical logs, drillers’ lithology logs, and depth-to-basement gravity data were used to map and interpolate the subsurface extent and structure of the hydrogeologic units within the subbasin. Faults and structures of geologic and (or) hydrogeologic importance were included in the model for future evaluation of their potential effects on groundwater flow. The resulting hydrogeologic framework is consistent with existing geologic concepts and the tectonic and structural history of the Yucaipa subbasin and surrounding area. The framework is also suitable for use in basin-scale hydrogeologic investigations.

Geostatistical Mapping of Salinity Conditioned on Borehole Logs, Montebello OilField, California

National Groundwater Association (NGWA) | December 3rd, 2021

We present a geostatistics-based stochastic salinity estimation framework for the Montebello Oil Field that capitalizes on available total dissolved solids (TDS) data fro

We present a geostatistics-based stochastic salinity estimation framework for the Montebello Oil Field that capitalizes on available total dissolved solids (TDS) data from groundwater samples as well as electrical resistivity (ER) data from borehole logging. Data from TDS samples (n = 4924) was coded into an indicator framework based on falling below four selected thresholds (500, 1000, 3000, and 10,000 mg/L). Collocated TDS-ER data from the surrounding groundwater basin were then employed to produce a kernel density estimator to establish conditional probabilities for ER data (n = 8 boreholes) falling below the selected TDS thresholds within the Montebello Oil Field area. Directional variograms were estimated from these indicator coded data, and 500 TDS realizations from conditional indicator simulation were generated for the subsurface region above the Montebello Oil Field reservoir. Simulations were summarized as 3D maps of median TDS, most likely salinity class, and probability for exceeding each of the specified TDS thresholds. Results suggested TDS was below 500 mg/L in most of the study area, with a trend toward higher values (500 to 1000 mg/L) to the southwest; consistent with the average regional groundwater flow direction. Discrete localized zones of TDS greater than 1000 mg/L were observed, with one of these zones in the greater than 10,000 mg/L range; however, these areas were not prevalent. The probabilistic approach used here is adaptable and is readily modified to include additional data and types and can be employed in time-lapse salinity modeling through Bayesian updating.