South Coast

Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High-Resolution Global Warming Experiment

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 14th, 2023

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow weather features often referred to as “rivers in the sky.” They often transport water from lower latitudes to higher lati

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow weather features often referred to as “rivers in the sky.” They often transport water from lower latitudes to higher latitudes typically across climate zones and produce precipitation necessary for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is challenging because of the variety of ways an AR can be defined on gridded data sets. Unlike weather features such as tropical cyclones where identification methodologies are similar, algorithms that determine the characteristics of ARs vary depending on the science question posed. Because there is no real consensus on AR identification methodology, we aim to quantify the algorithmic uncertainty in AR metrics and precipitation. We compare 16 different ways of defining an AR on gridded data sets and present the range of possibilities in which an AR could change under global warming. Generally, ARs are projected to increase but the amount of that increase is a function of the algorithm. Across all algorithms and focus regions, AR precipitation is projected to become more extreme.

Future Changes in Global Atmospheric Rivers Projected by CMIP6 Models

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 31st, 2024

Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 14th, 2010

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, parti- cularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and per- sist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were re- markably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter st

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 15th, 2020

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often i

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius- Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes.

Gage Gap

Nature Conservancy | October 31st, 2018

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, whi

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, which moves millions of gallons of water from north to south and east to west. Thirty-nine million people and our $47 billion agricultural industry rely on that water, not to mention wildlife from the Sierra to the sea. And yet we have surprisingly little data about how much water is moving through our streams at any given time. There are over 3,600 locations in California where stream gages have been active at some point, but only 54% have been active recently. And even fewer of those provide the kind of rich, real-time reporting needed to manage what is arguably our state’s most precious and contentious resource.

Generalized Streamflow Relations of the San Bernardino and Eastern San Gabriel Mountains, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 19th, 1972

Geohydrologic and Water-Quality Data in the Vicinity of the Rialto-Colton Fault, San Bernardino, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 7th, 2014

The Rialto-Colton Basin is in western San Bernardino County, about 60 miles east of Los Angeles, California. The basin is bounded by faults on the northeast and southwest

The Rialto-Colton Basin is in western San Bernardino County, about 60 miles east of Los Angeles, California. The basin is bounded by faults on the northeast and southwest sides and contains multiple barriers to groundwater flow. The structural geology of the basin leads to complex hydrology. Between 2001 and 2008, in an effort to better understand the complex hydrologic system of the Rialto-Colton Basin, seven multiple-well monitoring sites were constructed. Two to six observation wells were installed in the borehole at each site; a total of 32 observation wells were installed. This report presents geologic, hydrologic, and water-quality data collected from these seven multiple-well monitoring sites. Descriptions of the collected drill cuttings were compiled into lithologic logs for each monitoring site. The lithologic logs are summarized along with the geophysical logs, including gamma-ray, spontaneous potential, resistivity, and electromagnetic induction tool logs. At selected sites, sonic tool logs also were recorded. Periodic water-level measurements are reported, and water-level data are displayed on hydrographs. Water levels at multiple-well monitoring sites in the northern part of the study area differed between the shallow and deep observation wells; in the remaining multiple-well monitoring sites, water levels differed little with depth. Along the southern trace of the Rialto-Colton Fault, water levels are slightly higher east of the fault than west of the fault. Selected water-quality data for 21 of the observation wells show water from wells in the northern and central parts of the study area is calcium-carbonate water. In the southern part of the study area, water from wells screened above 400 feet below land surface is of mixed type or is calcium-carbonate water. Water from wells screened greater than 400 feet below land surface in the southern part of the study area is sodium-carbonate or sodium-mixed anion water. Water from most wells in the study area plots above the Global Meteoric Water Line along an apparent local meteoric water line, indicating the water has not experienced substantial evaporation before infiltration. A few samples from shallow wells in the study area plot slightly to the right of the Global Meteoric Water Line, possibly indicating the water experienced some evaporation before recharge.

Geohydrology, Geochemistry, and Ground-Water Simulation-Optimization of the Central and West Coast Basins, Los Angeles County, California By

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 3rd, 2003

Historical ground-water development of the Central and West Coast Basins in Los Angeles County, California through the first half of the 20th century caused large water-l

Historical ground-water development of the Central and West Coast Basins in Los Angeles County, California through the first half of the 20th century caused large water-level declines and induced seawater intrusion. Because of this, the basins were adjudicated and numerous groundwater management activities were implemented, including increased water spreading, construction of injection barriers, increased delivery of imported water, and increased use of reclaimed water. In order to improve the scientific basis for these water management activities, an extensive data collection program was undertaken, geohydrological and geochemical analyses were conducted, and ground-water flow simulation and optimization models were developed. In this project, extensive hydraulic, geologic, and chemical data were collected from new multiple-well monitoring sites. On the basis of these data and data compiled and collected from existing wells, the regional geohydrologic framework was characterized. For the purposes of modeling, the three-dimensional aquifer system was divided into four aquifer systems—the Recent, Lakewood, Upper San Pedro, and Lower San Pedro aquifer systems. Most pumpage in the two basins is from the Upper San Pedro aquifer system. Assessment of the three-dimensional geochemical data provides insight into the sources of recharge and the movement and age of ground water in the study area. Major-ion data indicate the chemical character of water containing less than 500 mg/L dissolved solids generally grades from calcium-bicarbonate/sulfate to sodium bicarbonate. Sodium-chloride water, high in dissolved solids, is present in wells near the coast. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen provide information on sources of recharge to the basin, including imported water and water originating in the San Fernando Valley, San Gabriel Valley, and the coastal plain and surrounding hills. Tritium and carbon-14 data provide information on relative ground-water ages. Water with abundant tritium (greater than 8 tritium units) is found in and downgradient from the Montebello Forebay and near the seawater barrier projects, indicating recent recharge. Water with less than measurable tritium is present in, and downgradient from, the Los Angeles Forebay and in most wells in the West Coast Basin. Water from several deep wells was analyzed for carbon-14. Uncorrected estimates of age for these samples range from 600 to more than 20,000 years before present. Chemical and isotopic data are combined to evaluate changes in chemical character along flow paths emanating from the Montebello and Los Angeles Forebays.

Geologic Analysis, Ventura River Watershed

Daniel B. Stephens & Associates, Inc. (DBS&A) | March 3rd, 2020

 This memorandum summarizes geologic analysis performed for the Ventura River Watershed (VRW) by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates, Inc. (DBS&A) in support of nume

 This memorandum summarizes geologic analysis performed for the Ventura River Watershed (VRW) by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates, Inc. (DBS&A) in support of numerical model development. The geologic analysis presented herein will be used, in conjunction with other information as described in the project Study Plan (Geosyntec and DBS&A, 2019), to assign three-dimensional model layer geometry, initial model hydraulic properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity), and the presence of boundary conditions. This geologic analysis is based on data available to DBS&A at the time the analysis was conducted. We anticipate that development of the VRW geologic conceptual model may be revised as additional data becomes available and as numerical model development proceeds.