South Coast

Downscaling global ocean climate models improves estimates of exposure regimes in coastal environments

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 26th, 2020

Climate change is expected to warm, deoxygenate, and acidify ocean waters. Global climate models (GCMs) predict future conditions at large spatial scales, and these pred

Climate change is expected to warm, deoxygenate, and acidify ocean waters. Global climate models (GCMs) predict future conditions at large spatial scales, and these predictions are then often used to parameterize laboratory experiments designed to assess biological and ecological responses to future change. However, nearshore ecosystems are affected by a range of physical processes such as tides, local winds, and surface and internal waves, causing local variability in conditions that often exceeds global climate models. Predictions of future climatic conditions at local scales, the most relevant to ecological responses, are largely lacking. To fill this critical gap, we developed a 2D implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to downscale global climate predictions across all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to smaller spatial scales, in this case the scale of a temperate reef in the northeastern Pacific. To assess the potential biological impacts of local climate variability, we then used the results from different climate scenarios to estimate how climate change may affect the survival, growth, and fertilization of a representative marine benthic invertebrate, the red abalone Haliotis rufescens, to a highly varying multi-stressor environment. We found that high frequency variability in temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and pH increases as pCO2 increases in the atmosphere. Extreme temperature and pH conditions are generally not expected until RCP 4.5 or greater, while frequent exposure to low DO is already occurring. In the nearshore environment simulation, strong RCP scenarios can affect red abalone growth as well as reduce fertilization during extreme conditions when compared to global scale simulations.

Dreher v. City of Los Angeles Department of Water and Power

California Courts, Judicial Branch of California | December 8th, 2025

Drinking Water Notification Levels and Response Levels: An Overview

California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) | February 6th, 2020

The Division of Drinking Water’s precursor, the Drinking Water Program of the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), and earlier, the California Department of H

The Division of Drinking Water’s precursor, the Drinking Water Program of the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), and earlier, the California Department of Health Services, CDHS, established health-based advisory levels, called “notification levels” (referred to as “action levels" through 2004), as needed since the early 1980s. These have been used to provide information to public water systems and others about certain non-regulated chemicals in drinking water that lack maximum contaminant levels (MCLs).  When chemicals are found at concentrations greater than these levels, certain requirement and recommendations apply.  Generally, notification levels have been established in response to actual contamination of drinking water supplies, e.g., perchlorate, which now has an MCL. However, notification levels for a number of chemicals were established in anticipation of possible contamination, such as from a hazardous waste site containing many pesticides (in the 1980s), or from a Superfund site (in the 2000s).  Chemicals for which notification levels are established may eventually be regulated by MCLs (through a formal regulatory process), depending on the extent of contamination, the levels observed, and the risk to human health. Most, however, have not proceeded to MCLs. Once established, a notification level generally stays in place, unless it is replaced by an MCL.On occasion, though, we have revised the numeric value of an individualnotification level to reflect new risk assessment information on the particularchemical. For some of the chemicals that had advisory levels established early on, if noMCL was adopted and the need for the notification level had passed, the advisory levelwas archived. Archived advisory levels may nevertheless be updated to reflect any newrisk information that may become available, and may be used as notification levels ifneeded. To date, of the 93 chemicals for which notification levels have been established; 40 now have MCLs. Of the remaining 53 chemicals, 29 are chemicals with current notification levels. 24 are chemicals with archived advisory levels (AALs). Note that following adoption of an MCL, the notification level is no longer used. For more about AALs and notification levels, go to: http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/drinking_water/certlic/drinkingwater/NotificationLevels.shtml. 

Drinking Water Quality Report 2018

Los Angeles Department of Water & Power (LADWP) | September 2nd, 2019

Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 20th, 2020

Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical ear

Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036–2065), 69% of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83% by late century (2070–2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P < 0.01) elevation dependence, with lower-elevation coastal areas most impacted by warming. Ancillary predictive information can only partially mitigate snow-based predictability losses to 65% of areas, underscoring the importance of declining future snowpack.

Drought Management and Climate Adaptation of Small, Self-Sufficient Drinking Water Systems in California

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 15th, 2018

Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. This

Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. This study focuses on the 2012-2016 Drought in California, documenting how small self-sufficient drinking water systems were affected and challenged by, and responded to the extreme event.

Droughts in California

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | April 1st, 2021

Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2019

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant eco

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world’s 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state’s GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three- fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2023

Economic Analysis of the 2015 Drought for California Agriculture

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | August 17th, 2015

In 2015 California agriculture is facing its fourth year of severe drought. As in 2014, irrigation districts and farmers are showing more resilience to the drough

In 2015 California agriculture is facing its fourth year of severe drought. As in 2014, irrigation districts and farmers are showing more resilience to the drought than many had anticipated. Groundwater substitution has again greatly reduced crop fallowing and job losses. Water trading and operational flexibility also have significantly reduced the costs of the drought, and preservation of the most valuable crops has helped buffer economic impacts. However, the effects of drought are unevenly distributed over regions. In some regions with limited groundwater reserves the economic and employment impacts are very severe. In others, there is an increased cost of expanded groundwater use which is partially offset by high crop prices. Just as the economic impacts of the drought have grown modestly since 2014, continuation of the drought to 2016 or beyond with similar intensity is likely to slowlyerode the state’s agricultural production and employment.