San Joaquin River

Priorities for California’s Water: Are We Ready for Climate Change?

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 12th, 2024

California faces many immediate challenges around water management, but as the record-breaking heat of 2024 makes clear, temperatures are rising—and Californians are co

California faces many immediate challenges around water management, but as the record-breaking heat of 2024 makes clear, temperatures are rising—and Californians are contending with the consequences. In a PPIC poll earlier this year, residents named climate change, forest fires and wildfires, and water supply and drought as the most important environmental issues facing the state. 

Prioritization of State Investments in Delta Levees and Risk Reduction - Initial Statement of Reasons

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | August 26th, 2022

Prioritization of State Investments in Delta Levees and Risk Reduction Amendment to Existing Regulation

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | September 21st, 2023

Probabilistic Subsidence Forecast Model for the California Aqueduct Subsidence Program, San Joaquin Valley, California: Revision 1 Design Report

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 4th, 2024

This report documents the development of a probabilistic subsidence forecast model for simulating a plausible range of future land-surface altitude conditions along the C

This report documents the development of a probabilistic subsidence forecast model for simulating a plausible range of future land-surface altitude conditions along the California Aqueduct (Aqueduct) and San Luis Canal in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), with an emphasis on areas of localized subsidence (i.e., “subsidence bowls”). The model forecasts will be used to inform long-term planning and on-going analyses of potential investments needed to provide a suitable level of performance for the Aqueduct. The forecast model is primarily based on an empirical relationship between historical subsidence rates and annual water deliveries from the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP). A key assumption of the model is that the rate of groundwater overdraft, which contributes to loss of aquifer storage and permanent land subsidence, is correlated with CVP and SWP deliveries, and specifically with higher groundwater storage loss during severe drought years. Another key assumption is that the same rates of subsidence will continue even after groundwater levels decline and extraction may be coming from deeper parts of the aquifer system. If the geology and/or aquifer properties change dramatically in response, then these new conditions may have an unmodeled impact on future rates. 

Productive wetlands restored for carbon sequestration quickly become net CO2 sinks with site-level factors driving uptake variability

PLOS | March 25th, 2021

Inundated wetlands can potentially sequester substantial amounts of soil carbon (C) over the long-term because of slow decomposition and high primary productivity, partic

Inundated wetlands can potentially sequester substantial amounts of soil carbon (C) over the long-term because of slow decomposition and high primary productivity, particularly in climates with long growing seasons. Restoring such wetlands may provide one of several effective negative emission technologies to remove atmospheric CO2 and mitigate climate change. However, there remains considerable uncertainty whether these heterogeneous ecotones are consistent net C sinks and to what degree restoration and management methods affect C sequestration. Since wetland C dynamics are largely driven by climate, it is difficult to draw comparisons across regions. With many restored wetlands having different functional outcomes, we need to better understand the importance of site-specific conditions and how they change over time. We report on 21 site-years of C fluxes using eddy covariance measurements from five restored fresh to brackish wetlands in a Mediterranean climate. The wetlands ranged from 3 to 23 years after restoration and showed that several factors related to restoration methods and site conditions altered the magnitude of C sequestration by affecting vegetation cover and structure. Vegetation established within two years of re-flooding but followed different trajectories depending on design aspects, such as bathymetry-determined water levels, planting methods, and soil nutrients. A minimum of 55% vegetation cover was needed to become a net C sink, which most wetlands achieved once vegetation was established. Established wetlands had a high C sequestration efficiency (i.e. the ratio of net to gross ecosystem productivity) comparable to upland ecosystems but varied between years undergoing boom-bust growth cycles and C uptake strength was susceptible to disturbance events. We highlight the large C sequestration potential of productive inundated marshes, aided by restoration design and management targeted to maximise vegetation extent and minimise disturbance. These findings have important implications for wetland restoration, policy, and management practitioners.

Progress Report: Subsidence in California, March 2015 – September 2016

Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) | February 7th, 2017

Subsidence caused by groundwater pumping in the Central Valley has been a problem for decades. Over the last few years, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) h

Subsidence caused by groundwater pumping in the Central Valley has been a problem for decades. Over the last few years, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has been used from satellites and aircraft to produce maps of subsidence with sensitivity of fractions of an inch. For this study, we have obtained and analyzed data from the European Space Agency’s satellite-borne Sentinel-1A from the period March 2015 – September 2016 and the NASA airborne UAVSAR for the period March 2015 – June 2016, and produced maps of total subsidence from the two data sets. These data add to the earlier data processed from the Japanese PALSAR for 2006 – 2010, Canadian Radarsat-2 for the period May 2014 – January 2015, and UAVSAR for July 2013 - March 2015, for which subsidence measurements were reported previously (Farr et al., 2015). Here we also present results for the South-Central coast of California including Ventura, Oxnard, Santa Barbara and north to the San Joaquin Valley as well as the Santa Clara Valley from colleagues who have processed Sentinel-1A data covering March 2015 – March 2016. As multiple scenes were acquired during these periods, we can also produce time histories of subsidence at selected locations and transects showing how subsidence varies both spatially and temporally.

Projected Brackish Water Desalination Projects in California

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | February 20th, 2024

California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future (Water Supply Strategy), adopted by the Newsom Administration in 2022, identifies multiple action

California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future (Water Supply Strategy), adopted by the Newsom Administration in 2022, identifies multiple actions necessary to bolster water supply reliability in the face of climate change. The first set of actions drive the development of new water supplies and set explicit goals for expanding the production of both recycled and desalinated water. Action 1.2 includes specific targets for expanded brackish water desalination: 28,000 acre-feet by 2030, and 84,000 acre-feet by 2040. The Water Supply Strategy identifies five steps toward achieving this goal.

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 21st, 2022

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid-dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.

Projecting groundwater storage changes in California’s Central Valley

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 27th, 2018

Accurate and detailed knowledge of California’s groundwater is of paramount importance for statewide water resources planning and management, and to sustain a

Accurate and detailed knowledge of California’s groundwater is of paramount importance for statewide water resources planning and management, and to sustain a multi-billion-dollar agriculture industry during prolonged droughts. In this study, we use water supply and demand information from California’s Department of Water Resources to develop an aggregate groundwater storage model for California’s Central Valley. The model is evaluated against 34 years of historic estimates of changes in groundwater storage derived from the United States Geological Survey’s Central Valley Hydrologic Model (USGS CVHM) and NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA GRACE) satellites. The calibrated model is then applied to predict future changes in groundwater storage for the years 2015–2050 under various precipitation scenarios from downscaled climate projections. We also discuss and project potential management strategies across different annual supply and demand variables and how they affect changes in groundwater storage. All simulations support the need for collective statewide management intervention to prevent continued depletion of groundwater availability.

Promoting atmospheric-river and snowmelt fueled biogeomorphic processes by restoring river-floodplain connectivity in California’s Central Valley

Springer | April 30th, 2015

Potential biogeomorphic benefits from intentional levee breaks and weir overflow on the managed floodplain-river system of California’s Sacramento and San Joaquin River

Potential biogeomorphic benefits from intentional levee breaks and weir overflow on the managed floodplain-river system of California’s Sacramento and San Joaquin River watershed (Central Valley) are discussed here. Prior to the nineteenth century, the system was characterized by natural levees alongside complex multichanneled rivers and tributaries, and geomorphic processes such as channel migration and avulsion, typical in lowland floodplain-river systems globally, dominated. Today, the floodplain-river system has been heavily modified with infrastructure such as levee embankments that disconnect floodplains from channels and diminish key processes of floodplain-river ecology. Unintentional levee breaks in river systems where floodplains have been developed for agriculture or urban uses still occur regularly (in a quarter of twentieth century years) and are sometimes catastrophic. Floodplain inundation, erosion, and sedimentation, the dominant geomorphic processes that occur during unintentional levee breaks, are flood risks in such embanked river systems. Climate and flood variability still dictate the frequency of unintentional levee breaks despite many decades of engineering. Of particular consequence are the so-called atmospheric-river (AR) storms. Since 1951, 81 % of breaks have occurred as a result of AR storms and flooding, while most of the rest occurred during snowmelt floods. Intentional levee breaks or planned weir overflows that are designed for floodplain restoration can facilitate a return towards more natural and dynamic biogeomorphic processes. In areas where room for flood-driven geomorphic processes is available on floodplains, local sediment scour and deposition near a levee break promote topographic diversity that enhances vegetation establishment and floodplain habitat. This chapter summarizes our current understanding of climate processes and flood variability that govern unintentional levee breaks or weir overflow. We also review examples of alternative flood management approaches in the Central Valley that promote processes necessary to restore or sustain lowland floodplain biogeomorphology. Future climate-driven changes in flood regime, such as enhanced flooding during winter months or more frequent atmospheric rivers, could be accommodated by additional intentional levee breaks or planned weir overflow for restoration. Implementation of these alternatives could be used to improve restoration policy and management of floods in embanked river floodplains.