San Francisco Bay

Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming

Wiley | February 21st, 2013

Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, a

Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, and policy. As research on the topic expands at an exponential rate, a comprehensive understanding of the variability in organisms' responses and corresponding levels of certainty is necessary to forecast the ecological effects. Here, we perform the most comprehensive meta‐analysis to date by synthesizing the results of 228 studies examining biological responses to ocean acidification. The results reveal decreased survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance in response to acidification when the broad range of marine organisms is pooled together. However, the magnitude of these responses varies among taxonomic groups, suggesting there is some predictable trait‐based variation in sensitivity, despite the investigation of approximately 100 new species in recent research. The results also reveal an enhanced sensitivity of mollusk larvae, but suggest that an enhanced sensitivity of early life history stages is not universal across all taxonomic groups. In addition, the variability in species' responses is enhanced when they are exposed to acidification in multi‐species assemblages, suggesting that it is important to consider indirect effects and exercise caution when forecasting abundance patterns from single‐species laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the results suggest that other factors, such as nutritional status or source population, could cause substantial variation in organisms' responses. Last, the results highlight a trend towards enhanced sensitivity to acidification when taxa are concurrently exposed to elevated seawater temperature.

Impacts of Predicted Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storm Events on the Transportation Infrastructure in the San Francisco Bay Region

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

Literature concerning the potential effect of climate change (sea‐level rise inundation and 100‐year storm events) on the San Francisco Bay region’s transportation

Literature concerning the potential effect of climate change (sea‐level rise inundation and 100‐year storm events) on the San Francisco Bay region’s transportation infrastructure is reviewed. Currently available geographical information system data is employed, and a review of how those datasets have been used in previous studies is reported. The second part of this paper presents methods. They include a higher‐resolution digital elevation model for the Bay Area; a new approach using a digital surface model is introduced to improve the surface elevations of features and better calculate the risk of over‐topping by sea level shifts and storm surges. A metric to assess change in the transportation infrastructure is introduced that calculates accessibility of first responders to the population at large. Sea level rise is incremented to the expected 1.4 meters in tandem with a 100‐year flood to analyze the extent to which transportation assets are at risk of inundation. The increased travel time from first responder locations to all neighborhoods in the region is measured for each iteration of the model. Local accessibility analysis for the entire San Francisco Bay region is performed to provide a synoptic view. Two localities are chosen to view in detail the impact on first‐responder accessibility caused by sea level rise and a 100‐year storm event. Next, the regional vulnerability of the transportation network to these events is assessed. This is accomplished by creating nodes that are the intersections of the major regional highways that surround the Bay. The loss of accessibility is measured by calculating the changes in travel time between these major nodes through iterations of our inundation model. Finally, the accessibility impacts to the hinterland from the major highway intersections for each peak water level iteration is determined, calculating the first and last 20 minutes of an origin‐destination journey.

Implementing Climate-Smart Conservation

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | March 4th, 2025

In our first report, Climate-Smart Tools to Protect California’s Freshwater Biodiversity (Sommer et al. 2024), we reviewed a broad suite of tools available to a

In our first report, Climate-Smart Tools to Protect California’s Freshwater Biodiversity (Sommer et al. 2024), we reviewed a broad suite of tools available to address the urgent problem of safeguarding California’s freshwater biodiversity in the changing climate. This toolbox includes some familiar approaches—such as various ways to improve freshwater habitat—as well as approaches that may be less familiar, more experimental, and more controversial. We also recommended the adoption of a climate-smart conservation planning process, involving a broad range of stakeholders, to prioritize the selection of tools within watersheds and to adaptively implement those tools. In this follow-up report, we explore the feasibility of implementing these tools and climate-smart planning in light of legal, policy, and institutional factors.2 Our analysis draws on an extensive review of the legal literature on ecosystem and protected species management, as well as interviews and small workshops with a wide-ranging set of 45 experts from all over the state. These experts are working on the frontlines of ecosystem policy and management; they include state and federal regulators, members of the environmental conservation community, legal professionals, and representatives of many entities involved in water and land management.

Implementing Ecosystem Based Management

Duke Environmental Law & Policy Forum | June 7th, 2021

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | March 1st, 2016

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Improving Groundwater Security in the United States

The White House | December 14th, 2024

The U.S. is facing a serious and unprecedented groundwater challenge. In many aquifers, groundwater withdrawal has outpaced natural recharge, which is exacerbated by the

The U.S. is facing a serious and unprecedented groundwater challenge. In many aquifers, groundwater withdrawal has outpaced natural recharge, which is exacerbated by the changing climate and precipitation variability. Much of the water in the major aquifers in the U.S. is fossil water, recharged over 10,000 years ago, and will not be replaced naturally on human timescales. In the western U.S., groundwater resources are being depleted at alarming rates, mostly from agricultural withdrawal. The depletion has caused land subsidence and earth fissures as well as permanent reduction of storage capacity. The depletion has national and global consequences as non-renewable groundwater in the west is embedded in agricultural products transported to the rest of the U. S. and in agricultural commodities exported globally. Many federal agencies have programs to measure the quality and quantity of groundwater, as well as conservation programs for sustainable use of groundwater. PCAST applauds and endorses their efforts as well as those by state governments, non-governmental organizations, professional organizations, local communities, private citizens, and others, to manage their groundwater resources. To ensure the sustainability of this indispensable resource and mitigate risks from its depletion, it is imperative that we enhance our understanding and management of groundwater resources.

Improving Habitats Along Delta Levees: A Review of Past Projects and Recommended Next Steps

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | January 15th, 2016

This review of habitat improvements along Delta levees was conducted to support the development of the Delta Stewardship Council’s (Council) Delta Levee Investment Stra

This review of habitat improvements along Delta levees was conducted to support the development of the Delta Stewardship Council’s (Council) Delta Levee Investment Strategy (DLIS), which focuses on flood risk reduction as the primary purpose of State levee investments. The report is intended to provide guidance to the Council to ensure that those investments also contribute to long-term improvement of river corridors, with net benefits for fish and wildlife. The Council must ensure that the DLIS helps to implement the Delta Reform Act and the Delta Plan. The Delta Reform Act of 2009 established the Council and defined its mission: to achieve the coequal goals of water supply reliability for California and ecosystem restoration in the Delta, in a manner that protects and enhances the values of the Delta as an evolving place (Water Code section 85054). The Delta Plan includes 14 regulatory policies, including one that calls for levee projects to incorporate habitat benefits, where feasible, and another requiring the use of the best available science and adaptive management. This report is intended to support the application of best available science and adaptive management to habitat improvements along Delta levees. It should be noted that levee-related habitat improvements alone are not expected to provide all the ecosystem benefits needed by native species. These projects take place within the larger context of ecosystem restoration in the Delta and Suisun Marsh, which will require more natural functional flows, restoration and conservation of a wide range of habitat types1, improved water quality, and the management of nonnative invasive species. Nevertheless, given its significant role in Delta levee investments, the State must ensure that these habitat projects are part of a program that provides a net benefit for aquatic species in the Delta.

Improving Infrastructure for Wildlife

Social Science Research Network (SSRN) | February 25th, 2021

In Washington v. United States, 584 U.S. ___ (2018), the Supreme Court required Washington State to improve fish passage through almost 1,000 culverts originally built to

In Washington v. United States, 584 U.S. ___ (2018), the Supreme Court required Washington State to improve fish passage through almost 1,000 culverts originally built to allow streamflow under roads and highways. The case highlighted conflicts between wildlife needs and infrastructure development. Fish passage through outdated or ill-designed culverts is only a small facet of the larger problem of outdated wildlife infrastructure. Impinged migration corridors for ungulates, turtles, and other mobile taxa; levees disconnecting floodplains from rivers; poor water temperature controls on dams; and eroding ecological productivity accompanying aging of reservoirs exemplify the types of challenges to wildlife created by contemporary infrastructure.

In situ allelopathic expression by the invasive amphibious plant, Ludwigia hexapetala (water primrose) across habitat types, seasons, and salinities

Biological Invasions (Springer Link) | August 17th, 2024

Broad infestations of invasive, non-native vegetation have transformed wetlands around the world. Ludwigia hexapetala is a widespread, amphibious invasive plant with a cr

Broad infestations of invasive, non-native vegetation have transformed wetlands around the world. Ludwigia hexapetala is a widespread, amphibious invasive plant with a creeping growth habit in open water and an erect growth habit in terrestrial habitats. In the upper San Francisco Estuary of California, L. hexapetala is increasingly terrestrializing into marshes and this expansion may be facilitated by allelopathy. We conducted the first field-based study on L. hexapetala allelopathy to determine whether (1) three allelochemicals known to be exuded by L. hexapetala are expressed in situ, (2) the allelochemicals are detectable in leaves, soil, and water, and (3) allelopathic expression varies by season, salinity, and growth habit (open water “patch” vs. terrestrial marsh “interface” locations). Water, soil, and L. hexapetala leaves were collected in two freshwater sites and two oligohaline sites in the upper San Francisco Estuary in summer 2021, fall 2021, and spring 2022. Myricitrin and quercitrin, known allelochemicals, and salipurposid, a newly identified polyphenol, were detected in water, soil, and leaves. There were significant differences in allelochemical concentrations under fresh versus oligohaline conditions in water and soil, but not leaves. All three allelochemicals generally had higher concentrations in patch versus interface locations, suggesting that L. hexapetala allelopathy plays a greater competitive role in open water than terrestrial habitats. Leaf concentrations of each allelochemical varied seasonally; however, both myricitrin and salipurposid had heightened concentrations in spring. These results suggest that herbicide application in early spring may be most effective in controlling L. hexapetala terrestrialization from open water to marshes.

Inaction’s Economic Cost for California’s Water Supply Challenges

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | May 14th, 2025

California’s water system is in for challenges in coming decades as climate, groundwater policy, and environmental regulations reduce availability and increase variabil

California’s water system is in for challenges in coming decades as climate, groundwater policy, and environmental regulations reduce availability and increase variability in water supplies for agricultural and urban uses. A previous report estimated 4 to 9 million acre-feet (maf) per year of unavoidable reductions in existing water supplies, 12% to 25% of today’s water use (Lund et al. 2024). This report estimates the economic costs of not responding to these reductions in water availability.