San Francisco Bay

From the Sierra to the Sea: The Ecological History of the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed

Bay Institute | July 15th, 2003

A vast watershed connects the mountain streams surrounding California’s Central Valley with San Francisco Bay and the ocean beyond. Over the course of the last two cent

A vast watershed connects the mountain streams surrounding California’s Central Valley with San Francisco Bay and the ocean beyond. Over the course of the last two centuries, much of the natural productivity, biodiversity and ecological integrity of the watershed has been destroyed by modifying the environment without fully understanding the long-term environmental consequences. Long the site of some of the nation’s most intensive conflicts over the use of land and water resources, this system is now emerging as the focus of one of the most ambitious ecological restoration efforts ever undertaken in the United States. This report was designed to provide a coherent and defensible ecological framework and information base for restoration. The need for such an historical, broad-scale perspective on system ecology stems from two fundamental principles of ecological restoration - the need to manage toward a natural template and to manage at ecosystem and landscape levels.

From the Sierra to the Sea: The Ecological History of the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed

Bay Institute | January 1st, 1998

A vast watershed connects the mountain streams surrounding California’s Central Valley with San Francisco Bay and the ocean beyond. Over the course of the last two cent

A vast watershed connects the mountain streams surrounding California’s Central Valley with San Francisco Bay and the ocean beyond. Over the course of the last two centuries, much of the natural productivity, biodiversity and ecological integrity of the watershed has been destroyed by modifying the environment without fully understanding the long-term environmental consequences. Long the site of some of the nation’s most intensive conflicts over the use of land and water resources, this system is now emerging as the focus of one of the most ambitious ecological restoration efforts ever undertaken in the United States. This report was designed to provide a coherent and defensible ecological framework and information base for restoration. The need for such an historical, broad-scale perspective on system ecology stems from two fundamental principles of ecological restoration - the need to manage toward a natural template and to manage at ecosystem and landscape levels.

Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High-Resolution Global Warming Experiment

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 14th, 2023

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow weather features often referred to as “rivers in the sky.” They often transport water from lower latitudes to higher lati

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow weather features often referred to as “rivers in the sky.” They often transport water from lower latitudes to higher latitudes typically across climate zones and produce precipitation necessary for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is challenging because of the variety of ways an AR can be defined on gridded data sets. Unlike weather features such as tropical cyclones where identification methodologies are similar, algorithms that determine the characteristics of ARs vary depending on the science question posed. Because there is no real consensus on AR identification methodology, we aim to quantify the algorithmic uncertainty in AR metrics and precipitation. We compare 16 different ways of defining an AR on gridded data sets and present the range of possibilities in which an AR could change under global warming. Generally, ARs are projected to increase but the amount of that increase is a function of the algorithm. Across all algorithms and focus regions, AR precipitation is projected to become more extreme.

Future Changes in Global Atmospheric Rivers Projected by CMIP6 Models

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 31st, 2024

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter st

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 15th, 2020

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often i

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius- Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes.

FY 2023–2024 Delta Crosscut Budget Report: Transparency in Science and Restoration Funding

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | December 9th, 2025

How much money is currently being spent on Delta science and restoration? That question drives the analysis herein. State and federal agencies, along with public water ag

How much money is currently being spent on Delta science and restoration? That question drives the analysis herein. State and federal agencies, along with public water agencies, fund and implement science and restoration programs and activities across the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. For the past six years, the Delta Crosscut Budget Report has aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of this funding.

Gage Gap

Nature Conservancy | October 31st, 2018

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, whi

Following a difficult five-year drought, California just had one of the wettest winters on record. The state is famous for its highly engineered water system, which moves millions of gallons of water from north to south and east to west. Thirty-nine million people and our $47 billion agricultural industry rely on that water, not to mention wildlife from the Sierra to the sea. And yet we have surprisingly little data about how much water is moving through our streams at any given time. There are over 3,600 locations in California where stream gages have been active at some point, but only 54% have been active recently. And even fewer of those provide the kind of rich, real-time reporting needed to manage what is arguably our state’s most precious and contentious resource.

Geohydrological Characterization, Water-Chemistry, and Ground-Water Flow Simulation Model of the Sonoma Valley Area, Sonoma County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 14th, 2006

Sonoma County is in the northern part of the greater San Francisco Bay region, an area of Northern California that has experienced rapid population growth and accelerated

Sonoma County is in the northern part of the greater San Francisco Bay region, an area of Northern California that has experienced rapid population growth and accelerated urbanization in response to economic expansion over the past few decades. The large increase in population and concomitant changes in land use within Sonoma County require reassessment of the water resources and how best to manage them for optimal utilization over the next few decades. Most basins in the county currently rely on a combination of Russian River water and native ground water to meet demand. Recycled water is used on a limited basis. In addition, water conservation programs have been implemented and are being expanded. The Sonoma Valley is a well-defined hydrologic basin in southeastern Sonoma County. The basin has some areas of declining ground-water levels, potential water-quality problems from seawater intrusion and upwelling of geothermal waters, and ground-water/surface-water interaction. Location of the Study Area The study area is located approximately 30 miles (mi) northeast of San Francisco and includes the entire Sonoma Creek watershed in southeastern Sonoma County, California (fig. 1). The study focused on the area of the valley floor and the adjacent hills where most of the urban development and irrigated agriculture have been occurring. The watershed includes approximately 166 square miles (mi2) of land that drains by way of Sonoma Creek and its tributaries to San Pablo Bay (fig. 2), which is the northern arm of the San Francisco Bay. The Sonoma Mountains form the southwestern side of the watershed and the Mayacmas Mountains form the northeastern side. Between these two mountain ranges lies the northwest trending elongate depression of Sonoma Valley, which extends roughly 20 mi from the shore of San Pablo Bay to near Kenwood (fig. 2). Purpose and Scope: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA), undertook this study to evaluate the ground-water resources of Sonoma Valley and to develop a tool to better understand and manage the ground-water system. The goals of the study were to update the geohydrologic characterization of the study area; to provide a current assessment of hydrologic conditions, including a description of historical ground-water level and waterquality changes; and to provide water-supply agencies with a ground-water flow model that can be used as a planning tool for water-resources assessment and management. To meet the objectives of this study, four principal tasks were identified: (1) evaluation of existing geohydrologic, geophysical, and geochemical data; (2) collection and analysis of new geohydrologic data, including subsurface lithologic data, gravity measurements, ground-water levels, and streamflow gains and losses; (3) collection and analysis of new water chemistry, temperature, and isotopic data; and (4) development a ground-water flow model. This report provides a geologic and hydrologic description of the area, presents selected hydrologic data collected from the 1970s to 2004, quantifies historical changes in the ground-water system, documents a ground-water flow simulation model, and presents an interpretation of surface geophysical data that help define the geometry of the ground-water reservoir.

Geohydrology, Water Quality, and Estimation of Ground-Water Recharge In San Francisco, California, 1987-92

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 14th, 1993

The city of San Francisco is considering further development of local ground-water resources as a supplemental source of water for potable or non-potable use. By the y

The city of San Francisco is considering further development of local ground-water resources as a supplemental source of water for potable or non-potable use. By the year 2010, further water demand is projected to exceed the delivery capacity of the existing supply system, from which San Francisco draws most of its water. The existing system is fed by surfacewater sources; thus, supplies are susceptible to drought conditions and damage to conveyance lines by earthquakes. The primary purpose of this study is to describe local geohydrology and water quality, and to estimate ground-water recharge in the area of the city of San Francisco. Seven ground-water basins were identified in San Francisco on the basis of geologic and geophysical data. Basins on the east side of the city are relatively thin and contain a greater percentage of fine-grained sediments than those on the west side. The relatively small capacity of the basins and greater potential for contamination from sewer sources may limit the potential for ground-water development on the east side. Basins on the west side of the city have a relatively large capacity and low density sewer network. Water-level data indicate that the southern part of the largest basin on the west side of the city (Westside basin) probably cannot accommodate additional ground-water development without adversely affecting water levels and water quality in Lake Merced; however, the remainder of the basin, which is largely undeveloped, could be developed further. A hydrologic routing model was developed for estimating ground-water recharge throughout San Francisco. The model takes into account climatic factors, land and water use, irrigation, leakage from underground pipes, rainfall runoff, evapotranspiration, and other factors associated with an urban environment. Results indicate that areal recharge rates for water years 1987-88 for the seven ground-water basins range from 0.32 to 0.78 foot per year. Recharge for the Westside basin was estimated at 0.51 foot per year. Average annual ground-water recharge represents the maximum annual long-term yield of the basin. Attainable yield may be less than the volume of ground-water recharge because interception of all discharge from the basin may not be feasible without inducing seawater intrusion or causing other undesirable effects.