San Francisco Bay

The futures market for water rights trading in California: Analyzing the emergence of a controversial experiment

Environmental Challenges (Elsevier) | March 29th, 2025

This paper presents a qualitative case study of the world's first water futures contract in California, a market that enables hedgers and speculators to bet on water pric

This paper presents a qualitative case study of the world's first water futures contract in California, a market that enables hedgers and speculators to bet on water prices. It is attempted to explain which factors shaped the emergence of the unique market by applying the Political Process Inherent Dynamics Approach (PIDA), an analytical framework from the field of environmental policy analysis. In addition, the topics of heated debate that have surrounded the new market are summarized and contextualized. To obtain the relevant information, expert interviews, complemented by online sources, were subjected to a Qualitative Content Analysis. It is concluded that the launch of the contract is an extreme case of private business actors shaping water governance, made possible by a longstanding market philosophy in the US, that gives leeway for actors of financialization to create facts. In the political-administrative realm, a lack of accountability and will to interfere seems to prevail. However, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and other actors have led efforts to abolish the market, criticizing water futures in ways that resonate with broader debates about privatization and food futures.

The Governance Gap: Climate Adaptation and Sea-Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | June 27th, 2017

This report summarizes the results of an extensive study of governance for climate adaptation and sea-level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area (SF Bay Area), wh

This report summarizes the results of an extensive study of governance for climate adaptation and sea-level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area (SF Bay Area), where the concept of sea-level rise adaptation also includes coastal flooding from high tides and extreme storm events. We focus on the “governance gap” that exists between the problem of sea-level rise and the implementation of adaptation solutions that increase resilience. We take a broad view on governance as the set of institutional arrangements, governmental authorities, and public stakeholders who collectively plan and implement adaptation activities, including identifying funding strategies and the agreeing on the information basis for decision making. While most stakeholders recognize the risk of sea-level rise and other climate impacts, and have good ideas about potential on-the-ground solutions, realizing these solutions requires overcoming a series of governance challenges. All of these governance challenges are barriers to stakeholder cooperation at multiple geographic levels—local, regional, state, and federal. There are many different governmental and non-governmental actors facing the same sea-level rise problem (in “the same boat”), and coordination is required to have them “row in the same direction.” The imperative for multi-level cooperation becomes more poignant as the science on sea-level rise continues to advance, and considers the possibilities of higher average levels of sea-level rise and rapid and extreme sea-level rise due to accelerated melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. This report summarizes the major challenges, identifies the menu of possible solutions, and develops some specific recommendations on the next steps needed to remedy the governance gap and enhance the adaptive capacity of the SF Bay Area. The governance analysis is a component of the larger UC Davis/Berkeley research project called Resilience of Infrastructure as Seas Rise (RISeR), See Figure 1, which is funded by National Science Foundation to analyze the interactions between sea-level rise adaptation, transportation infrastructure, and governance in the SF Bay Area. The governance analysis was conducted in Fall 2016-Winter 2017, and is based on a qualitative case study that combines in-person interviews, focus groups, document analysis, and content analysis of interview responses. The draft report was made available to study participants in Spring 2017, along with two webinars for receiving feedback. Participants included leaders of governmental and non-governmental organizations across the SF Bay Area region. The research focused mainly on sea-level rise and coastal flooding, but also linked to broader issues of climate adaptation when appropriate. Focus groups deliberated on the best possible solutions to solving the identified governance challenges. Respondents identified the overarching governance challenge as the imperative for multi-level cooperation among all sea-level rise adaptation stakeholders. Sea-level rise adaptation entails interdependencies, where the vulnerabilities and adaptation decisions of local actors impose regional costs and benefits. While regional cooperation is beginning to emerge, most stakeholders see a critical need for shared learning, coordination and planning. The recommendations provided in this report are intended to accelerate the processes of learning and cooperation needed to address the increasingly urgent problem of sea-level rise and coastal flooding.

The Great California Delta Trail: Blueprint Report for Contra Costa and Solano Counties

Delta Protection Commission (DPC) | September 1st, 2009

The Delta Trail concept was born out of Senate Bill 1556, created by Senator Torlakson and signed by Governor Schwarzenegger to facilitate the planning and feasibility pr

The Delta Trail concept was born out of Senate Bill 1556, created by Senator Torlakson and signed by Governor Schwarzenegger to facilitate the planning and feasibility process for the establishment of the Delta Trail in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The bill requires the Delta Protection Commission (DPC) to facilitate the trail’s planning and feasibility process.  This Blueprint Report reflects the outreach, feasibility, and planning process developed for the Delta Trail in Solano and Contra Costa counties through work with a broad cross-section of local agencies and stakeholders. It provides a template to be considered for the trail planning process in the other three Delta counties – Sacramento, San Joaquin and Yolo. The Blueprint Report establishes a specific vision, goals and policies for the Delta Trail. It provides a review of the Solano and Contra Costa Counties settings, a summary of related adopted policies, a review of regional trail technical issues and best practices, and an action plan to implement the vision and goals, recommended outreach and engagement strategies, a description of potential trail concepts, and information on funding opportunities.

The hidden influence of terrestrial groundwater on salt marsh function and resilience

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 3rd, 2025

Salt marshes are hotspots of nutrient processing and carbon sequestration. So far, studies addressing spatiotemporal variability in and drivers of salt marsh biogeochemic

Salt marshes are hotspots of nutrient processing and carbon sequestration. So far, studies addressing spatiotemporal variability in and drivers of salt marsh biogeochemical function, carbon storage and resilience have focused on ocean-driven surface hydrologic influences, neglecting effects of terrestrial hydrology through subsurface connections. Here we evaluate drivers of salt marsh redox potential, a proxy for biogeochemical state, through wavelet analyses and information theory using data from seven marshes. The results point to terrestrial groundwater level as a dominant control on redox variability across all sites. Because redox is a key driver of biogeochemical processes, and specifically oxidation of organic matter that sequesters carbon and maintains marsh elevation, these terrestrial influences are critical to understanding marsh function and evolution. The newly identified links between onshore groundwater levels and marsh redox conditions shift the traditional paradigm and suggest that terrestrial hydrology is a primary control on salt marsh carbon sequestration potential and resilience.

The Human Right to Water Bill in California

University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) | July 1st, 2013

The impact of pricing structure change on residential water consumption: A long-term analysis of water utilities in California

Water Resources and Economics (Elsevier) | February 10th, 2024

California's demand-side urban water management policies, such as shifting water pricing structures from non-conservation to conservation-based rates, have received much

California's demand-side urban water management policies, such as shifting water pricing structures from non-conservation to conservation-based rates, have received much attention in terms of meeting the state's short- and long-term water conservation policies. This paper quantifies the effect of pricing structure changes on residential water consumption using a survey dataset of 189 major California water utilities from 1994 to 2019. Results of our study demonstrate that residential per capita per day water consumption was reduced by an average of 2.6% when water agencies switched from non-conservation-based to conservation-based pricing structures. We also found evidence that the longer a utility maintained a non-conservation-based rate structure before switching to conservation-based pricing, the larger the water consumption reduction in that utility's service area. In addition, utilities that reverted to non-conservation rates after having longer-term conservation pricing structures experienced smaller increases compared to having long-term non-conservation ones in water use in their service areas. This suggests evidence of a crowding-in effect for transitions from conservation-based to non-conservation-based pricing structures.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on San Francisco Bay

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 1st, 2014

Over the past century, sea level has risen nearly eight inches along the California coast, and general circulation model scenarios suggest very substantial increases in s

Over the past century, sea level has risen nearly eight inches along the California coast, and general circulation model scenarios suggest very substantial increases in sea level as a significant impact of climate change over the coming century. This study includes a detailed analysis of the current population, infrastructure, and property along the San Francisco Bay that are at risk from projected sea level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast. The sea level rise scenario was developed by the State of California from medium to high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change but does not reflect the worst?case sea level rise that could occur. If development continues in the areas at risk, all of these estimates will rise. No matter what policies are implemented in the future, sea level rise will inevitably change the character of the San Francisco Bay. We estimate that a 1.0 meter (m) sea level rise will put 220,000 people at risk of a 100?year flood event, given today’s population. With a 1.4 m increase in sea levels, the number of people at risk of a 100?year flood event would rise to 270,000. Among those affected are large numbers of low?income people and communities of color, which are especially vulnerable. Critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, power plants, and more will be at increased risk of inundation, as will vast areas of wetlands and other natural ecosystems. In addition, the cost of replacing property at risk of coastal flooding with a 1.0 m rise in sea levels is $49 billion (in year 2000 dollars). A rise of 1.4 m would increase the replacement cost to $62 billion (in year 2000 dollars). Continued development in vulnerable areas will put additional areas at risk and raise protection costs. A number of structural and non?structural policies and actions, which are described qualitatively, could be implemented to reduce these risks.

The impacts of climate change on coastal groundwater

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 11th, 2024

Coastal groundwater (CGW) is a critical water resource for many communities and can be a key part of coastal ecosystems. Owing to its location, CGW faces both terrestrial

Coastal groundwater (CGW) is a critical water resource for many communities and can be a key part of coastal ecosystems. Owing to its location, CGW faces both terrestrial and marine effects of climate change while simultaneously being impacted by anthropogenic activities. In this Review, we discuss the expected impacts of climate change on CGW and CGW-dependent ecosystems. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding increases and precipitation and aridity changes will drive alterations in the amount, chemistry and fluxes of CGW. Impacts could also arise from changes in storm and cyclone activity, land and ocean temperature rises, cryosphere melt, ocean chemistry and coastal erosion, but the overall effect is understudied. Human-induced stressors, such as groundwater extraction, will interact with climate change impacts to alter CGW at different temporal and spatial scales. CGW-associated ecosystems are expected to respond to changes in an ecosystem and site-specific manner — for example, some coastal temperate and tropical ecosystems might be more impacted by seawater intrusion owing to sea-level rise and coastal flooding, whereas others, such as coastal polar ecosystems, could be more affected by increases in cryosphere melt. A comprehensive and global CGW observatory programme is needed to better understand baseline CGW conditions, track change and support resource management.

The Influence of Zooplankton Availability on Delta Smelt Condition and Foraging Across Habitat Contexts

Publisher not available | December 19th, 2025

Strategies for endangered species conservation may have different outcomes depending on the habitat context in which they are implemented. Understanding these context-dep

Strategies for endangered species conservation may have different outcomes depending on the habitat context in which they are implemented. Understanding these context-dependent effects can help optimize and target management efforts. In this analysis, we investigate how environmental and food-web conditions interactively affect condition and foraging of Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), an endangered fish endemic to the San Francisco Estuary (the estuary). Food limitation, in terms of pelagic zooplankton availability, is considered a main factor that contributes to the decline in Delta Smelt abundance. Our overarching objective was to examine whether the effect of zooplankton on Delta Smelt depended on habitat context. Specifically, we hypothesized that zooplankton would less positively effect Delta Smelt condition—as measured by hepatosomatic index (HSI)—and foraging success in areas with nearby tidal wetlands, because these adjacent habitats may provide access to prey items from the epibenthos and fringing vegetation. In contrast, in regions with limited proximity to wetlands, we hypothesized that Delta Smelt would rely more on pelagic prey, which would manifest as a more positive effect of zooplankton on body condition and foraging success for Delta Smelt. Using models that accounted for habitat in multiple ways, we found little evidence that zooplankton and habitat interactively influenced Delta Smelt condition or gut fullness. Rather, the influence of zooplankton on HSI and gut fullness was generally positive across habitat contexts. Given the well-documented food limitation in the estuary, promoting the availability of pelagic zooplankton is a rational, albeit complex, management aim. Furthermore, our results suggest that efforts to increase zooplankton would broadly benefit Delta Smelt across a wide range of habitat contexts.

The Magnitude of California's Water Challenges

UnIversity of California, Davis (UC Davis) | June 4th, 2024

California will see increasing water scarcity from climate change, the end of overdrafting groundwater and the Colorado River’s massive reservoirs, increased water dedi

California will see increasing water scarcity from climate change, the end of overdrafting groundwater and the Colorado River’s massive reservoirs, increased water dedications for environmental flows, and other factors, such as salination of aquifers and land subsidence reducing canal capacities. Total reduction in average water availability in the coming decades will likely range from 4.6 to 9 million acre-feet per year. For context, this is equivalent to the water use of 1 – 2.8 million acres of irrigated agriculture or most urban water use in California. Perhaps 20-30% of this loss will likely be addressed by ongoing water conservation and supply improvements, being planned and implemented, leaving a 3 – 7.2 million acre-feet/year likely net average difference between statewide water demands and availability.