San Francisco Bay

Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 19th, 2023

Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western United States. Because storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, it

Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western United States. Because storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, it is not well established how single events and their structures change with warming. Here we use regional storm-resolving simulations to investigate climate change impact on western US winter storms. Under a high-emissions scenario, precipitation volume from the top 20% of winter storms is projected to increase by up to 40% across the region by mid-century. The average increase in precipitation volume (31%) is contributed by 22% from increasing area coverage and 19% from increasing storm intensity, while a robust storm sharpening with larger increase in storm centre precipitation compared with increase in storm area reduces precipitation volume by 10%. Ignoring storm sharpening could result in overestimation of the changes in design storms currently used in infrastructure planning in the region.

Shifting Baselines in a California Oak Savanna: Nineteenth Century Data to Inform Restoration Scenarios

Restoration Ecology, Society for Ecological Restoration (SER) | January 6th, 2011

For centuries humans have reduced and transformed Mediterranean‐climate oak woodland and savanna ecosystems, making it difficult to establish credible baselines for eco

For centuries humans have reduced and transformed Mediterranean‐climate oak woodland and savanna ecosystems, making it difficult to establish credible baselines for ecosystem structure and composition that can guide ecological restoration efforts. We combined historical data sources, with particular attention to mid‐1800s General Land Office witness tree records and maps and twentieth century air photos, to reconstruct 150 years of decline in extent and stand density of Valley oak (Quercus lobata Neé) woodlands and savannas in the Santa Clara Valley of central coastal California. Nineteenth century Valley oak woodlands here were far more extensive and densely stocked than early twentieth century air photos would suggest, although reconstructed basal areas (7.5 m2/ha) and densities (48.9 trees/ha) were not outside the modern range reported for this ecosystem type. Tree densities and size distribution varied across the landscape in relation to soil and topography, and trees in open savannas were systematically larger than those in denser woodlands. For the largest woodland stand, we estimated a 99% decline in population from the mid‐1800s to the 1930s. Although most of the study area is now intensely developed, Valley oaks could be reintroduced in urban and residential areas as well as in surrounding rangelands at densities comparable to the native oak woodlands and savannas, thereby restoring aspects of ecologically and culturally significant ecosystems, including wildlife habitat and genetic connectivity within the landscape.

Shifting landscapes: decoupled urban irrigation and greenness patterns during severe drought

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | June 7th, 2019

Urban outdoor water conservation and efficiency offer high potential for demand-side management, but irrigation, greenness, and climate interlinks must be better underst

Urban outdoor water conservation and efficiency offer high potential for demand-side management, but irrigation, greenness, and climate interlinks must be better understood to design optimal policies. To identify paired transitions during drought, we matched parcel-level water use data from smart, dedicated irrigation meters with high-spatial resolution, multispectral aerial imagery. We examined changes across 72 non-residential parcels using potable or recycled water for large landscape irrigation over four biennial summers (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) that encompassed a historic drought in California. We found that despite little change in irrigation levels during the first few years of the drought, parcel greenness deteriorated. Between summers 2010 and 2014, average parcel greenness decreased−61% for potable water irrigators and−56% for recycled water irrigators, providing evidence that vegetation could not reach its vigor from wetter, cooler years as the drought intensified with abnormally high temperatures. Between summers 2014–2016 as drought severity lessened, irrigation rates decreased significantly in line with high drought saliency, but greenness rebounded ubiquitously, on average+110% for potable water irrigators and+62% for recycled water irrigators, demonstrating climate-driven vegetation recovery as evaporation and plant evapotranspiration rates decreased. Transitions were similar for customers with both potable and recycled water; vegetation changes were dominated by the overarching climatic regime. As irrigation cannot always overcome drought conditions, which will become more severe under climate change, to maintain vegetation health, utilities and urban planners should consider the tradeoffs between providing green spaces and water scarcity. This includes evaluating the roles of climate-appropriate landscaping and adaptive reallocation of potable and recycled water resources to enhance water security. By addressing emerging themes in urban water management through analysis of data from forthcoming water metering and aerial imagery technologies, this research provides a unique perspective on water use, greenness, and drought linkages.

Shifting shores: Marsh expansion and retreat in San Pablo Bay

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 30th, 2015

As sea level rise accelerates, our shores will be increasingly vulnerable to erosion. Particular concern centers around the potential loss of San Francisco Bay’s much-v

As sea level rise accelerates, our shores will be increasingly vulnerable to erosion. Particular concern centers around the potential loss of San Francisco Bay’s much-valued tidal marshes, which provide natural flood protection to our shorelines, habitat for native wildlife, and many other ecosystem services. Addressing this concern, this study is the first systematic analysis of the rates of marsh retreat and expansion over time for San Pablo Bay, located in the northern part of San Francisco Bay. Key findings: • Over the past two decades, more of the marshes in San Pablo Bay have expanded (35% by length) than retreated (6%). • Some areas have been expanding for over 150 years. • Some marsh edges that appear to be retreating are in fact expanding rapidly at rates of up to 8 m/yr. • Marsh edge change may be a useful indicator of resilience, identifying favorable sites for marsh persistence. • These data can provide a foundation for understanding drivers of marsh edge expansion and retreat such as wind direction, wave energy, watershed sediment supply, and mudflat shape. • This understanding of system dynamics will help inform management decisions about marsh restoration and protection. • This study provides a baseline and method for tracking marsh edge response to current and future conditions, particularly anticipated changes in sea level, wave energy, and sediment supply. Recommended next steps: • This pilot study for San Pablo Bay marshes should be extended to other marshes in San Francisco Bay. • These initial marsh expansion and retreat findings should be further analyzed and interpreted to improve our understanding of system drivers and identify management responses. • A program for repeated assessment should be developed to identify and track changes in shoreline position, a leading indicator of the likelihood marsh survival.

Shoreline Seasonality of California's Beaches

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 30th, 2025

We report on remote sensing techniques developed to characterize seasonal shoreline cycles from satellite-derived shoreline measurements. These techniques are applied to

We report on remote sensing techniques developed to characterize seasonal shoreline cycles from satellite-derived shoreline measurements. These techniques are applied to 22-yr of shoreline measurements for over 777 km of beach along California's 1,700-km coast, for which the general understanding is that shorelines exhibit winter-narrow and summer-recovery seasonality. We find that approximately 90% of beach transects exhibit significant and recurring seasonal cycles in the shoreline position. Seasonal shoreline excursions are twice as large in northern and central California (17.5–32.2 m) than southern California (7.3–15.9 m; interquartile ranges). Clustering analyses were effective at characterizing the temporal patterns of the seasonality, revealing that ∼459 km of beach (59%) exhibit winter-narrow conditions, whereas ∼189 km (24%) and ∼50 km (6.4%) exhibit spring-narrow and summer-narrow conditions, respectively. These spring- and summer-narrow conditions are most common in southern California, where they represent over half of the total length of beach shoreline. Multivariate analyses reveal that wave climate and geomorphic setting are significantly related to the magnitude and timing of shoreline seasonal cycles. Combinations of these variables explain 44% of the seasonality variance of the complete data set and 85% of the variance for a subset of 93 long (>1 km) continuous beaches. We conclude that diversity in waves and geomorphic setting along California cause a broad range of seasonal patterns in the shoreline. Combined, this indicates that the overly generalized “winter-narrow/summer-recovery” conventions for California beaches are not expressed universally and that shoreline seasonality is far more diverse than these simple canonical rules.

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | July 29th, 2024

Simplified 1-D Hydrodynamic and Salinity Transport Modeling of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta: Sea Level Rise and Water Diversion Effects

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | December 11th, 2013

Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies from 1980-2017

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 29th, 2020

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and flood events along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present‐day charac

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and flood events along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present‐day characteristics of AR‐related precipitation extremes, a selection of nine most intense historical AR events during 1980–2017 is simulated using a dynamical downscaling modeling framework based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. We find that the chosen framework and Weather Research and Forecasting Model configuration reproduces both large‐scale atmospheric features—including parent synoptic‐scale cyclones—as well as the filamentary corridors of integrated vapor transport associated with the ARs themselves. The accuracy of simulated extreme precipitation maxima, relative to in situ and interpolated gridded observations, improves notably with increasing model resolution, with improvements as large as 40–60% for fine scale (3 km) relative to coarse‐scale (27 km) simulations. A separate set of simulations using smoothed topography suggests that much of these gains stem from the improved representation of complex terrain. Additionally, using the 12 December 1995 storm in Northern California as an example, we demonstrate that only the highest‐resolution simulations resolve important fine‐scale features—such as localized orographically forced vertical motion and powerful near hurricane‐force boundary layer winds. Given the demonstrated ability of a targeted dynamical downscaling framework to capture both local extreme precipitation and key fine‐scale characteristics of the most intense ARs in the historical record, we argue that such a configuration may be highly conducive to understanding AR‐related extremes and associated changes in a warming climate.

Skarry Removal

California State Lands Commission (SLC) | May 1st, 2025

The Commission’s contractor will remove booms, winches, and other superstructures from the crane barges on site. This equipment will be cut into pieces and placed on a

The Commission’s contractor will remove booms, winches, and other superstructures from the crane barges on site. This equipment will be cut into pieces and placed on a materials barge for recycling. Floating booms will surround the work site and contain any debris. Once lightened of equipment, a crane will remove the two smaller barges directly from the water. The largest barge will be refloated and towed by water to the Mare Island shipyard, where it will be removed from the water and demolished. Scrap metal will be recycled, and other debris will be hauled to a landfill for disposal. Click here for the staff report that accompanied the plan.

Small Populations in Jeopardy: A Delta Smelt Case Study

Social Science Research Network (SSRN) | February 21st, 2021

Under §7 of the federal Endangered Species Act, federal agencies must ensure that actions they authorize, fund, or carry out are “not likely to jeopardize the continue

Under §7 of the federal Endangered Species Act, federal agencies must ensure that actions they authorize, fund, or carry out are “not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered species or threatened species or result in the destruction or adverse modification of habitat of such species.” For species with low and declining populations, applying this standard is legally and scientifically difficult. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) faced this problem in its recent biological opinion (BiOp) analyzing impacts to threatened Delta smelt from water project operations in the California Delta. FWS concluded the “species’ recent abundance trends strongly suggest it is in the midst of demographic collapse,” and most recent surveys to locate smelt have failed to find them. Nevertheless, FWS approved agency actions that will likely increase extinction risk for Delta smelt. This Comment illustrates, through a case study of the Delta smelt BiOp, the difficulties in making ESA jeopardy determinations for species on the brink of extinction. We conclude that the myriad challenges inherent in conservation of some small and declining populations make reasoned §7 analysis difficult, bordering on impossible.