San Francisco Bay

Marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific intensify landfalling atmospheric rivers on the west coast of North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 23rd, 2026

Extreme precipitation along the west coast of North America is often associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), fueled by evaporation from the ocean. When ARs interact wit

Extreme precipitation along the west coast of North America is often associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), fueled by evaporation from the ocean. When ARs interact with marine heatwaves (MHWs), they can form compound extreme events with amplified hydrological impacts. Here, we quantify how MHWs influence the intensity and precipitation of landfalling ARs through thermodynamic air–sea interaction processes. We use high-resolution regional coupled ocean–atmosphere ensemble simulations to isolate the influence of large-scale MHW-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies while constraining the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation. Focusing on well-documented AR events during the 2013–16 Northeast Pacific MHW, we show that anomalously warm SSTs enhance evaporation and lower-tropospheric moisture availability, leading to a robust increase in integrated vapor transport and intensified landfalling ARs. The enhanced moisture transport results in earlier onset and substantially increased coastal precipitation, particularly over drought-vulnerable regions of California. Moisture-budget diagnostics demonstrate that this amplification arises from a direct thermodynamic response to SST anomalies, rather than indirect modulation through changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. Insights gained from this case study identify a thermodynamic pathway linking MHWs and ARs, highlighting the role of persistent oceanic thermal anomalies in shaping compound hydrological extremes under continued climate warming.

Mark/Recapture Experiments at Clifton Court Forebay to Estimate Pre-Screening Loss to Juvenile Fishes: 1976-1993

California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) | September 30th, 1997

From October 1976 through November 1993, the California Department of Fish and Game conducted mark/recapture experiments at Clifton Court Forebay, designed to estimate pr

From October 1976 through November 1993, the California Department of Fish and Game conducted mark/recapture experiments at Clifton Court Forebay, designed to estimate pre-screen loss to entrained juvenile fishes. Ten studies were conducted; eight evaluated losses to hatchery-reared juvenile chinook salmon, and two evaluated losses to hatchery-reared juvenile striped bass. Pre-screen loss was calculated from the proportion of marked fish released at the radial gates that were subsequently recaptured during salvage operations at Skinner Fish Facility. The proportion was adjusted for handling mortality, fish facility louver effiCiency, and any subsampling at the facility. Studies were conducted across a wide range of environmental conditions and State Water Project operations, with a wide range in the size ofexperimental fish. Pre-screen loss estimates for juvenile chinook salmon were 63-99%. Potential biases in estimates of pre-screen loss may be due to (1) the calculation for pre-screen loss, (2) underrepresentative and over-representative salvage of experimental fish at Skinner Fish Facility, and (3) the introduction of experimental fish directly into Clifton Court Forebay. A multiple-regression analysis of pre-screen loss to juvenile salmon showed that 91% of the variance in pre-screen loss can be explained by export rate, experimental fish size, and water temperature. 

Marsh Sediment in Translation: A Review of Sediment Transport Across a Natural Tidal Salt Marsh in Northern San Francisco Bay

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | March 15th, 2025

Deposition of inorganic sediment is essential for the sustainability of tidal salt marshes. Understanding variability in sediment sources and the processes of sediment de

Deposition of inorganic sediment is essential for the sustainability of tidal salt marshes. Understanding variability in sediment sources and the processes of sediment delivery to salt marshes are high priorities for decision-makers responsible for managing sediment and conserving and restoring marshes.

Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | October 16th, 2019

Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically

Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically strong link between extreme El Niño events and extremely wet seasons. However, the 2015–2016 El Niño challenged our understanding of the ENSO-precipitation relationship. California precipitation was near-average during the 2015–2016 El Niño, which was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of similar magnitude compared to the extreme 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events. We demonstrate that this precipitation response can be explained by El Niño’s spatial pattern, rather than internal atmospheric variability. In addition, observations and large-ensembles of regional and global climate model simulations indicate that extremes in seasonal and daily precipitation during strong El Niño events are better explained using the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which captures the diversity of ENSO’s spatial patterns in a single metric, compared to the traditional Niño3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in a fixed region and therefore fails to capture ENSO diversity. The physically-based ELI better explains western US precipitation variability because it tracks the zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection that drive teleconnections through the response in the extratropical wave-train, integrated vapor transport, and atmospheric rivers. This research provides evidence that ELI improves the value of ENSO as a predictor of California’s seasonal hydroclimate extremes compared to traditional ENSO indices, especially during strong El Niño events.

May Revision Trailer Bill Proposals on the Delta Conveyance Project and Water Quality Control Plans

Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) | May 27th, 2025

LAO Bottom Line: We recommend deferring action on both proposals, without prejudice. These policy issues do not have budget implications. Deferring action would allow the

LAO Bottom Line: We recommend deferring action on both proposals, without prejudice. These policy issues do not have budget implications. Deferring action would allow the Legislature more time and capacity for sufficient consideration of the potential benefits, implications, and trade-offs. Below, we describe the proposals and note some key issues for the Legislature to keep in mind when it considers these proposals.

Mean and Extreme Climate Change Impacts on the State Water Project

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 27th, 2018

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks t

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks to California’s State Water Project (SWP) and federal Central Valley Project (CVP). This study uses the California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR’s) newly developed water planning model, CalSim 3.0, as a risk assessment tool. Impacts were assessed for 20 climate change scenarios (10 global climate models and two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Water supply and water quality metrics evaluated include Delta exports, North of Delta Carryover storage, reservoir dead storage (i.e. when reservoir levels fall below the lowest outlets), and Delta salinity. Results for the driest future scenario were also analyzed to examine future drought impacts. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests were implemented to assess individual impacts of four climate change factors: flow seasonal pattern shift, sea level rise, annual flow volume change, and water demand change on the State Water Project and Central Valley Project operations. It was found that flow seasonal pattern shift will become a major climate change factor and sea level rise a secondary factor, leading to a half million‐acre feet of Delta export reduction as well as a roughly 25% decrease of North‐of‐Delta carryover storage by around 2060. The results also indicate that the extra runoff from early snow melting and higher percentage of rain in the winter and early spring is not conserved in reservoirs and thus cannot be used to meet the higher summer demand in the current SWP/CVP system. This extra water is released as flood water in the winter and early spring to become Delta outflow.

Measuring Progress Toward Universal Access to Water and Sanitation in California: Defining Goals, Indicators, and Performance Measures

Pacific Institute | September 15th, 2018

In January 2018, over half a million Californians were served by water utilities that were out of compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). The worst outbreak o

In January 2018, over half a million Californians were served by water utilities that were out of compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). The worst outbreak of Hepatitis A in recent memory occurred in 2016-2018 due to open defecation and lack of handwashing facilities for persons experiencing homelessness. California’s tribes continue to face problems of poor housing and water and sanitation service, with two-thirds of tribal communities reporting inadequate home plumbing in 2015.1 And the cost of water has increased for many, particularly among small and medium size systems, with 39 community water systems in the state charging more than $100 a month for 12 CCF of water. In response to the problem, California enacted the Human Right to Water in 2012, declaring that “Every human being has the right to safe, clean, affordable, and accessible water adequate for human consumption, cooking, and sanitary purposes.”

Mercury and Methylmercury in Fish and Water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta: August 2016 – April 2017

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | September 3rd, 2018

Monitoring of sport fish and water was conducted by the Delta Regional Monitoring Program (Delta RMP) from August 2016 to April 2017 to begin to address the highest prior

Monitoring of sport fish and water was conducted by the Delta Regional Monitoring Program (Delta RMP) from August 2016 to April 2017 to begin to address the highest priority information needs related to implementation of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Estuary Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for Methylmercury (Wood et al. 2010). Two species of sport fish, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and spotted bass (Micropterus punctulatus), were collected at six sampling locations in August and September 2016. The length-adjusted (350 mm) mean methylmercury (measured as total mercury, which is a routinely used proxy for methylmercury in predator fish) concentration in bass ranged from 0.15 mg/kg or parts per million (ppm) wet weight at Little Potato Slough to 0.61 ppm at the Sacramento River at Freeport. Water samples were collected on four occasions from August 2016 through April 2017. Concentrations of methylmercury in unfiltered water ranged from 0.021 to 0.22 ng/L or parts per trillion. Concentrations of total mercury in unfiltered water ranged from 0.91 to 13 ng/L. Over 99% of the lab results for this project met the requirements of the Delta RMP Quality Assurance Program Plan, and all data were reportable. This data report presents the methods and results for the first year of monitoring. Historic data from the same or nearby monitoring stations from 1998 to 2011 are also presented to provide context. Monitoring results for both sport fish and water were generally comparable to historic observations. For the next several years, annual monitoring of sport fish will be conducted to firmly establish baseline concentrations and interannual variation in support of monitoring of long-term trends as an essential performance measure for the TMDL. Monitoring of water will solidify the linkage analysis (the quantitative relationship between methylmercury in water and methylmercury in sport fish) in the TMDL. Water monitoring will also provide data that will be useful in verifying patterns and trends predicted by numerical models of mercury transport and cycling being developed for the Delta and Yolo Bypass by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).

Mercury Contamination from Historical Gold Mining in California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 31st, 2005

Mercury in Every Mix

CALFED | May 1st, 2005