Sacramento River

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 14th, 2022

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effect

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate-model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought-/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 10th, 2021

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

Undelivered Water: Fulfilling the CVPIA promise to Central Valley refuges

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | November 3rd, 2009

The 1992 Central Valley Project Improvement Act transformed California’s federal water management system by providing fish and wildlife a co-equal priority with other u

The 1992 Central Valley Project Improvement Act transformed California’s federal water management system by providing fish and wildlife a co-equal priority with other uses. In so doing, the Act mandated that the federal government establish a program, now known as the Refuge Water Supply Program (RWSP), to manage, secure, and deliver a reliable, clean water supply to serve the wetland habitat needs of nineteen federal, state, and private wildlife refuges in California’s Central Valley. The refuges protect a significant portion of the last remaining 5 percent of the historic Central Valley wetlands and provide birds of the Pacific Flyway habitat during critical periods when no other wetlands habitat may be available. In response to a request from OMB, the Bureau of Reclamation and the Fish and Wildlife Service established an Independent Panel to evaluate the performance of the RWSP component of the Central Valley Project Improvement Act.

Understanding End-of-Century Snowpack Changes Over California’s Sierra Nevada

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 29th, 2019

Underwater Videographic Observations of Domesticated Delta Smelt in Field Enclosures

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 24th, 2022

The delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) is a small, euryhaline fish species endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta; it is protected under the U.S. and Californi

The delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) is a small, euryhaline fish species endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta; it is protected under the U.S. and California Endangered Species Acts, and because of declines in population abundance, the delta smelt may be vulnerable to extinction. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) is conducting studies to test the viability of using domesticated fish to supplement the wild population of delta smelt. These studies have focused on examining the health and survival of domesticated delta smelt placed inside enclosures (circular cages that are approximately 1.5 meters tall by 1 meter in diameter) into the wild. We completed two parts within this study using underwater cameras inside the enclosures to observe fish behavior and their responses to certain stimuli. In both parts of the study, delta smelt behaviors were broadly categorized into two basic categories: (1) normal and (2) alarm. Normal behavior was characterized as calm, non-polarized, and docile swimming behavior. Alarm behavior was characterized by sudden and rapid darting, polarized frantic swimming activity, and tighter schooling polarization of individuals. The first part of the study took place in a semi-controlled agricultural pond on the campus of the University of California, Davis. At this agricultural pond, we developed methods of observation and documented how fish behaved in response to enclosure disturbances associated with routine cleaning and service that is required during extended field deployments of the enclosures. We observed that delta smelt behavior changed from normal to alarm at the onset of an enclosure service and from alarm to normal within about 2 minutes after the service ended. The second part of the study was completed in cooperation with the DWR. In October 2019, DWR deployed three enclosures in the Sacramento River near Rio Vista, California. To monitor survival rate of delta smelt, DWR permitted us to deploy cameras in one enclosure to document the frequency and duration of alarm behaviors exhibited by delta smelt and the frequency, duration, and intensity of three types of disturbances: (1) noise generated from passing boats, (2) noise generated from the enclosure moving in response to wave energy, and (3) vertical movements of the enclosure generated from wave energy. Alarm behaviors averaged about 2 minutes in duration and occurred most frequently during the evening compared to midday or morning. Each disturbance variable exhibited substantial variability in duration and intensity and occurred least frequently during the morning and evening compared to midday. Alarm behaviors appeared to be most associated with high intensity enclosure noises and vertical movements; however, limited replicate samples prohibited developing a statistical relation. Alarm behaviors did not directly contribute to injury or mortality of individual delta smelt; however, indirect or sublethal effects of alarm behaviors were not examined.

United States v. State Water Resources Control Board (1986)

Court of Appeals of California, First Appellate District | May 28th, 1986

This appeal raises a number of novel and complex questions concerning the interrelationship of the law of water quality and the law of water rights. The coordinated cases

This appeal raises a number of novel and complex questions concerning the interrelationship of the law of water quality and the law of water rights. The coordinated cases arise out of efforts by the State Water Resources Control Board (the Board) to set new water quality standards for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) in order to take account of the combined effects upon the Delta of the state's two massive water projects: the Central Valley Project (CVP) and the State Water Project (SWP), operated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (U.S. Bureau or Bureau) and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), respectively.

Updated Study Reporting Levels (SRLs) for Trace-Element Data Collected for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project, October 2009–October 2018

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 16th, 2020

Groundwater samples have been collected in California as part of statewide investigations of groundwater quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Groundwat

Groundwater samples have been collected in California as part of statewide investigations of groundwater quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project (PBP) since 2004. The GAMA-PBP is being conducted in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board to assess and monitor the quality of groundwater resources used for public and domestic drinking-water supply and to improve public knowledge of groundwater quality in California. Quality-control samples (including but not limited to field, equipment, and source-solution blanks) were collected to evaluate and quantify the quality of the groundwater sample results. The GAMA-PBP previously determined study reporting levels (SRLs) for trace-element results based primarily on field blanks collected in California from May 2004 through March 2013. SRLs are raised reporting levels used to reduce the likelihood of reporting false detections attributable to contamination bias. The purpose of this report is to identify any changes in the pattern or magnitude of concentrations or detections in field blanks since the last evaluation that would require changing or ending the use of SRLs implemented in October 2009. Constituents analyzed were aluminum, antimony, arsenic, barium, beryllium, boron, cadmium, chromium, hexavalent chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, lithium, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, silver, strontium, thallium, uranium, vanadium, and zinc. For this review, data from 167 field blanks collected from October 2009 through October 2018 by the GAMA-PBP for trace elements were compiled. Based on a consistent pattern of decreasing cobalt and manganese concentrations in field blanks from 2009 to 2013, the GAMA-PBP decided to reevaluate all trace-element SRLs, effectively setting an end date for previously defined SRLs. Beginning October 2013, SRLs would be determined from field-blank data collected through October 2018. The detection frequency and upper limit of potential contamination bias (BD-90/90) were determined from field blanks for each trace element. The BD-90/90, that is, the upper 90-percent confidence limit of the 90th percentile concentration of potential extrinsic contamination, was calculated by assuming the binomial probability distribution. These results were compared to each constituent’s detection limit to determine whether an SRL was necessary to minimize the potential for detections in the groundwater samples, attributed principally to contamination bias. Results of the evaluation were used to set SRLs for trace-element data collected by the GAMA-PBP between October 2013 and October 2018. Trace elements prescribed an SRL based on this review were hexavalent chromium, cobalt, copper, lead, and zinc. This review also resulted in the removal of SRLs from iron, manganese, molybdenum, and nickel. Although an SRL for hexavalent chromium could not be evaluated in the earlier reviews because the data were not collected regularly until 2015, one was established herein as 0.34 micrograms per liter (μg/L). The SRL for cobalt, as previously implemented, had been to reject all results; it was changed to 0.16 μg/L following a reduction in cobalt field-blank detection frequency resulting from mitigation steps, starting in 2014, aimed at reducing contamination bias introduced by high-capacity capsule filters used during sample collection. The SRL for copper did not change, and the SRL for lead changed very little based on this review. Lastly, the SRL for zinc was lowered from 6.2 μg/L to 3.9 μg/L.

Updating California Water Laws to Address Drought and Climate Change

California Planning & Conservation League Foundation | February 3rd, 2022

Updating the CALVIN Hydro-Economic Optimization Model of California: Central Valley Groundwater

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 11th, 2012

Updates are being made to Central Valley groundwater in CALVIN, a hydro-economic model of California’s intertied water supply and delivery system. These updates reflect

Updates are being made to Central Valley groundwater in CALVIN, a hydro-economic model of California’s intertied water supply and delivery system. These updates reflect better estimates of water demands, groundwater availability, and local water management opportunities. This poster focuses on updating CALVIN groundwater parameters based on California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) model inputs and results. Two CALVIN update projects, using the DWR and USGS groundwater models, are underway to improve groundwater representation including basin inflows, reuse, return flows, capacities, and pumping costs. These sub-projects will result in a CALVIN model with updated groundwater representation based on C2VSIM and CVHM. This poster shows a preliminary comparison of these sub-projects and a summary comparison between the DWR and USGS models.

Uplift and seismicity driven by groundwater depletion in central California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 14th, 2014

Groundwater use in California’s San Joaquin Valley exceeds replenishment of the aquifer, leading to substantial diminution of this resource and rapid subsidence of the

Groundwater use in California’s San Joaquin Valley exceeds replenishment of the aquifer, leading to substantial diminution of this resource and rapid subsidence of the valley floor. The volume of groundwater lost over the past century and a half also represents a substantial reduction in mass and a large-scale unburdening of the lithosphere, with significant but unexplored potential impacts on crustal deformation and seismicity. Here we use vertical global positioning system measurements to show that a broad zone of rock uplift of up to 1–3 mm per year surrounds the southern San Joaquin Valley. The observed uplift matches well with predicted flexure from a simple elastic model of current rates of water-storage loss, most of which is caused by groundwater depletion. The height of the adjacent central Coast Ranges and the Sierra Nevada is strongly seasonal and peaks during the dry late summer and autumn, out of phase with uplift of the valley floor during wetter months. Our results suggest that long-term and late-summer flexural uplift of the Coast Ranges reduce the effective normal stress resolved on the San Andreas Fault. This process brings the fault closer to failure, thereby providing a viable mechanism for observed seasonality in microseismicity at Parkfield and potentially affecting long-term seismicity rates for fault systems adjacent to the valley. We also infer that the observed contemporary uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada previously attributed to tectonic or mantle-derived forces is partly a consequence of human-caused groundwater depletion.