North Coast

Agricultural Land Use in California

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | June 25th, 2024

Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 20th, 2020

Snowpack stores cold-season precipitation to meet warm-season water demand. Climate change threatens to disturb this balance by altering the fraction of precipita

Snowpack stores cold-season precipitation to meet warm-season water demand. Climate change threatens to disturb this balance by altering the fraction of precipitation falling as snow and the timing of snowmelt, which may have profound effects on food production in basins where irrigated agriculture relies heavily on snowmelt runoff. Here, we analyse global patterns of snowmelt and agricultural water uses to identify regions and crops that are most dependent on snowmelt water resources. We find hotspots primarily in high-mountain Asia (the Tibetan Plateau), Central Asia, western Russia, western US and the southern Andes. Using projections of sub-annual runoff under warming scenarios, we identify the basins most at risk from changing snowmelt patterns, where up to 40% of irrigation demand must be met by new alternative water supplies under a 4 °C warming scenario. Our results highlight basins and crops where adaptation of water management and agricultural systems may be especially critical in a changing climate.

Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

Estuaries and Coasts (Springer) | May 28th, 2021

In Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsi

In Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of- century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

An Assessment of Urban Water Demand Forecasts in California

Pacific Institute | August 5th, 2020

In California, urban per capita water demand has declined dramatically over the past several decades, driven in part by greater uptake of water-efficient devices. These r

In California, urban per capita water demand has declined dramatically over the past several decades, driven in part by greater uptake of water-efficient devices. These reductions have important implications for estimating future water demand. However, failure to account for the long-term trend of declining per capita water demand has led to routine overestimation of future water demand. This can lead to unnecessary and costly investment in unneeded infrastructure and new sources of supply, higher costs, and adverse environmental impacts. This report examines the accuracy of long-range water demand forecasts for California’s 10 largest urban water suppliers. It finds that per capita water demand declined for all water suppliers between 2000 and 2015. In most cases, reductions in per capita water demand were so large that total water demand declined during this period. Additionally, all water suppliers overestimated demand, driven largely by inflated estimates of per capita water demand and, to a lesser extent, overestimates of population growth rates. The report offers recommendations on how to improve the accuracy of long-range water demand forecasts.

An Evaluation of California’s Adjudicated Groundwater Basins

University of California, Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz) | October 1st, 2016

Groundwater is a critical resource in California, providing on average 30 percent of the state’s total water supply and significantly more during dry years. Many commu

Groundwater is a critical resource in California, providing on average 30 percent of the state’s total water supply and significantly more during dry years. Many communities rely exclusively on groundwater, and it is an essential back-up source of water during droughts when pumping increases significantly to compensate for reduced surface supplies. Local groundwater management agencies, special act districts, and court adjudications are the primary institutional arrangements to manage groundwater in California. Increasing groundwater declines in many areas of the state and concomitant negative impacts prompted the passage of the 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA established new requirements for 127 high- and medium-priority groundwater basins that are either in overdraft or vulnerable to overdraft to develop sustainable management programs with increased state oversight. The SGMA defines sustainable groundwater management as: “The management and use of groundwater in a manner that can be maintained during the planning and implementation horizon without causing undesirable results.” Undesirable results include: chronic lowering of groundwater levels; significant and unreasonable reduction of groundwater storage; significant and unreasonable seawater intrusion, degraded water quality, and land subsidence; depletions of interconnected surface water that have significant and unreasonable adverse impacts on beneficial uses of the surface water. The SGMA exempts 388 basins categorized as low- and very-low priority, as well as all the adjudicated groundwater basins and 3 basins with pending groundwater adjudications. The SGMA was followed by the passage of Assembly Bill 1390 (AB 1390) and Senate Bill 226 (SB 226) in 2015 that provide some procedures for groundwater adjudications. In the adjudication of a groundwater basin, the court generally defines and determines water rights for all users and provides court-supervised basin management by a Watermaster, who is usually appointed by the court to ensure that the basin is managed in accordance with the court’s decree. Prior to adjudication, key stakeholders and users of the groundwater in a basin often negotiate a stipulation and physical solution to manage the basin, and the court can then accept it in whole or in part, or reject it and craft a different solution to manage the basin. There is limited analysis of the history and current condition of California’s adjudicated basins and the potential for future improvements to the adjudication process. This report for the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) evaluates all of California’s adjudicated basins with respect to sustainable groundwater management as defined in SGMA including: accomplishments, challenges, how management can be improved, and whether there are common elements that result in the sustainable management of an adjudicated groundwater basin.

An Evolutionary Theory of Administrative Law

Southern Methodist University | May 25th, 2018

Law evolves to accommodate change—this is axiomatic in most academic legal traditions. But in the era of the administrative state, with congressional gridlock and a jud

Law evolves to accommodate change—this is axiomatic in most academic legal traditions. But in the era of the administrative state, with congressional gridlock and a judiciary hesitant to address policy questions, evolution of statutory law has become much more difficult. This leads to pent up demand for change in legal regimes. If the legislature and the courts cannot provide an outlet for this pressure, where does it go? How does the law continue to change? Although other scholars have looked to agencies as engines of legal change, we lack a theoretical framework to understand how that change happens. I argue that an evolutionary framework provides an informative framework for understanding administrative legal change. I provide three case studies that demonstrate the administrative evolution of the Endangered Species Act. In spite of tremendous advances in conservation, fundamental changes in scientists’ understanding of human impacts on the natural world, and increasingly strident clashes over private property rights and endangered species, the Act has remained largely unchanged for the last 35 years. In a functioning legislative system, the Act would have been amended to accommodate many of these changes. Instead, the case studies show a mechanism of legal change through agency action analogous to the mechanisms underlying biological evolution. Other commentators have argued the administrative state stymies evolution of the law, but this research contradicts that view. Applying an evolutionary framework to administrative actions creates a new theory of administrative evolution of the law, placing administrative analysis within the long tradition of evolutionary approaches to legal change used by commentators from Aristotle to Holmes. In contrast to traditional normative theories of administrative law, an evolutionary approach focuses on how change progresses over time. This theory of administrative evolution of the law also casts new light on a host of normative questions, from the role of judicial review to improvements in agency decision-making. Considering administrative actions within the broader context of the legal evolution promises a fruitful new approach to analyzing administrative law.

An unprecedented coastwide toxic algal bloom linked to anomalous ocean conditions

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 9th, 2016

A coastwide bloom of the toxigenic diatom Pseudo-nitzschiain spring 2015 resulted in the largest recorded outbreak of the neurotoxin, domoic acid, along the North Ameri

A coastwide bloom of the toxigenic diatom Pseudo-nitzschiain spring 2015 resulted in the largest recorded outbreak of the neurotoxin, domoic acid, along the North American west coast. Elevated toxins were measured in numerous stranded marine mammals and resulted in geographically extensive and prolonged closures of razor clam, rock crab, and Dungeness crab fisheries. We demonstrate that this outbreak was initiated by anomalously warm ocean conditions. Pseudo-nitzschia australis thrived north of its typical range in the warm, nutrient-poor water that spanned the northeast Pacific in early 2015. The seasonal transition to upwelling provided the nutrients necessary for a large-scale bloom; a series of spring storms delivered the bloom to the coast. Laboratory and field experiments confirming maximum growth rates with elevated temperatures and enhanced toxin production with nutrient enrichment, together with a retrospective analysis of toxic events, demonstrate the potential for similarly devastating ecological and economic disruptions in the future.

Anatomy of a range contraction: Flow–phenology mismatches threaten salmonid fishes near their trailing edge

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 31st, 2025

Climate change is redistributing life on Earth, with profound impacts for ecosystems and human well-being. While repeat surveys separated by multidecadal intervals can de

Climate change is redistributing life on Earth, with profound impacts for ecosystems and human well-being. While repeat surveys separated by multidecadal intervals can determine whether observed shifts are in the expected direction (e.g., poleward or upslope due to climate change), they do not reveal their mechanisms or time scales: whether they were gradual responses to environmental trends or punctuated responses to disturbance events. Here, we document population reductions and temporary range contractions at multiple sites resulting from drought for three Pacific salmonids at their ranges’ trailing edge. During California’s 2012 to 2016 historic multiyear drought, the 2013 to 2014 winter stood apart because rainfall was both reduced and delayed. Extremely low river flows during the breeding season (“flow–phenology mismatch”) reduced or precluded access to breeding habitat. While Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) experienced a down-river range shift, entire cohorts failed in individual tributaries (steelhead trout, O. mykiss) and in entire watersheds (coho salmon, O. kisutch). Salmonids returned to impacted sites in subsequent years, rescued by reserves in the ocean, life history diversity, and, in one case, a conservation broodstock program. Large population losses can, however, leave trailing-edge populations vulnerable to extinction due to demographic stochasticity, making permanent range contraction more likely. When only a few large storms occur during high flow season, the timing of particular storms plays an outsized role in determining which migratory fish species are able to access their riverine breeding grounds and persist.

Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH: Oceanography

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 25th, 2003

Most carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuels will eventually be absorbed by the ocean1, with potentially adverse co

Most carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuels will eventually be absorbed by the ocean1, with potentially adverse consequences for marine biota. Here we quantify the changes in ocean pH that may result from this continued release of CO2 and compare these with pH changes estimated from geological and historical records. We find that oceanic absorption of CO2 from fossil fuels may result in larger pH changes over the next several centuries than any inferred from the geological record of the past 300 million years, with the possible exception of those resulting from rare, extreme events such as bolide impacts or catastrophic methane hydrate degassing.

Anthropogenic Stressors and Changes in the Clear Lake Ecosystem as Recorded in Sediment Cores

Ecological Society of America (Wiley) | December 1st, 2008

Sediment cores were collected to investigate multiple stresses on Clear Lake, California, USA, through the period of European occupation to the present day. Earlier wor

Sediment cores were collected to investigate multiple stresses on Clear Lake, California, USA, through the period of European occupation to the present day. Earlier workers suggested the hypothesis that the use of mechanized earthmoving equipment, starting in the 1920s and 1930s, was responsible for erosion, mercury (Hg) contamination, and habitat loss stresses. Cores (;2.5 m in depth) were collected in 1996 and 2000 from each of the three arms of the lake. Carbon-14 dating suggests that these cores represent as much as 3000 years of the lake’s history, beginning long before European settlement. Total mercury (TotHg) and methylmercury (MeHg), dry matter, water, carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, and the stable isotopes 13C and 15N were measured at 5-cm intervals. Nearly all parameters show major changes at depths of 58–135 cm, beginning at ca. 1927 (dated with 210Pb). Accepting this date for concomitant major changes in seven cores yields an estimated 8.6 mm/yr average sedimentation rate after 1927. Pre-1927 sedimentation rates were ;1 mm/yr. Total mercury and MeHg, dry matter, phosphorus, and 15N increase significantly, whereas nitrogen, sulfur, carbon, and water content decrease significantly above the 1927 horizon. Both TotHg and MeHg show extremely large increases (roughly 10-fold) above the 1927 horizon. A peak in inorganic deposition rate and minimum values for percentage of water is present at depths corresponding to ca. 1970. Interestingly, the first 75 years of European settlement in the Clear Lake basin (including the most productive years of the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine) appeared to have had undetectable effects on lake cores. Changes since 1927 were dramatic. The large increase in Hg beginning about 1927 corresponds to the use of heavy equipment to exploit the ore deposit at the mine using open-pit methods. Increases in sediment deposition from increased earthmoving in the basin and sulfate loading from the mine are the most likely explanations for the dramatic changes seen in the post-1927 sections of the cores.