Central Coast

Estimating the potential economic impacts of climate change on Southern California beaches

Climatic Change (Springer) | November 24th, 2011

Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (

Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (1) higher sea level will cause all beaches to become more narrow, all things being held constant, and (2) sea level rise may affect patterns of beach erosion and accretion when severe storms combine with higher high tides. To understand the potential economic impacts of these two outcomes, this study examined the physical and economic effects of permanent beach loss caused by inundation due to sea level rise of one meter and of erosion and accretion caused by a single, extremely stormy year (using a model of beach change based on the wave climate conditions of the El Niño year of 1982/1983.) We use a random utility model of beach attendance in Southern California that estimates the impacts of changes on beach width for different types of beach user visiting public beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The model allows beachgoers to have different preferences for beach width change depending on beach size. We find that the effect of climate-driven beach change differs for users that participate in bike path activities, sand-based activities, and water-based activities. We simulate the effects of climate-related beach loss on attendance patterns at 51 public beaches, beach-related expenditures at those beaches, and the non-market (consumer surplus) value of beach going to those beaches. We estimate that increasing sea level will cause an overall reduction of economic value in beach going, with some beaches experiencing increasing attendance and beach-related earnings while attendance and earnings at other beaches would be lower. We also estimate that the potential annual economic impacts from a single stormy year may be as large as those caused by permanent inundation that would result from a rise in sea level of one meter. The economic impacts of both permanent inundation and storm-related erosion are distributed unevenly across the region. To put the economic impacts of these changes in beach width in perspective, the paper provides simple estimates of the cost of mitigating beach loss by nourishing beaches with sand.

Estuary News, March 2020

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | March 15th, 2020

Evaluating historical changes in a mussel bed community in northern California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 14th, 2025

Evaluating the environmental impact of cleaning the North Pacific Garbage Patch

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 27th, 2025

Evaluation of Ground-Water Flow and Solute Transport in the Lompoc Area, Santa Barbara County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 1997

Ground-water quality in the Lompoc area, especially in the Lompoc plain, is only marginally acceptable for most uses. Demand for ground water has increased for municipal

Ground-water quality in the Lompoc area, especially in the Lompoc plain, is only marginally acceptable for most uses. Demand for ground water has increased for municipal use since the late 1950's and has continued to be high for irrigation on the Lompoc plain, the principal agricultural area in the Santa Ynez River basin. As use has increased, the quality of ground water has deteriorated in some areas of the Lompoc plain. The dissolved-solids concentration in the main zone of the upper aquifer beneath most of the central and western plains has increased from less than 1,000 milligrams per liter in the 1940's to greater than 2,000 milligrams per liter in the 1960's. Dissolved-solids concentration have remained relatively constant since the 1960's. A three-dimensional finite-difference model was used to simulate ground-water flow in the Lompoc area and a two-dimensional finite-element model was used to simulate solute transport to gain a better understanding of the ground-water system and to evaluate the effects of proposed management plans for the ground-water basin. The aquifer system was simulated in the flow model as four horizontal layers. In the area of the Lompoc plain, the layers represent the shallow, middle, and main zones of the upper aquifer, and the lower aquifer. For the Lompoc upland and Lompoc terrace, the four layers represent the lower aquifer. The solute transport model was used to simulate dissolved-solids transport in the main zone of the upper aquifer beneath the Lompoc plain. The flow and solute-transport models were calibrated to transient conditions for 1941-88. A steady-state simulation was made to provide initial conditions for the transient-state simulation by using long-term average (1941-88) recharge rates. Model-simulated hydraulic heads generally were within 5 feet of measured heads in the main zone for transient conditions. Model-simulated dissolved-solids concentrations for the main zone generally differed less than 200 milligrams per liter from concentrations in 1988.

Evaluation of the Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Floods Associated with Atmospheric Rivers in Coastal Western U.S. Watersheds

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | May 27th, 2021

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month) is a critical lead time for proactive mitigation of flood disasters. The NOAA Climate Testbed Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a research-to-operations project with almost immediate availability of forecasts. It has produced a reforecast database that facilitates evaluation of flood forecasts at these subseasonal lead times. Here, we examine the SubX-driven forecast skill of AR-related flooding out to 4-week lead using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), with particular attention to the role of antecedent soil moisture (ASM), which modulates the relationship between meteorological and hydrological forecast skill. We study three watersheds along a transect of the U.S. West Coast: the Chehalis River basin in Washington, the Russian River basin in Northern California, and the Santa Margarita River basin in Southern California. We find that the SubX-driven flood forecast skill drops quickly after week 1, during which there is relatively high deterministic forecast skill. We find some probabilistic forecast skill relative to climatology as well as ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) in week 2, but minimal skill in weeks 3–4, especially for annual maximum floods, notwithstanding some probabilistic skill for smaller floods in week 3. Using ESP and reverse-ESP experiments to consider the relative influence of ASM and SubX reforecast skill, we find that ASM dominates probabilistic forecast skill only for small flood events at week 1, while SubX reforecast skill dominates for large flood events at all lead times.

Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 27th, 2022

Changes in evapotranspiration (ET) affect water availability and ecosystem health. Higher evaporative demand during drought acts to increase ET, but droughts also reduce

Changes in evapotranspiration (ET) affect water availability and ecosystem health. Higher evaporative demand during drought acts to increase ET, but droughts also reduce the moisture supply necessary for ET, limiting predictions of even the sign of ET anomalies. Drought-driven increases in ET (ET+drought) are of particular concern because they quickly deplete water resources, causing flash droughts and acute stress on ecosystems. Here, using a water balance approach, we show that ET+drought is globally widespread, occurring in 44.4% of drought months. The sign of ET’s drought response depends most on the magnitude of precipitation and total water storage anomalies, rather than its location. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Earth system models underestimate the ET+drought probability by nearly one-half, and more so in drier regions, primarily due to missing representations of soil structure effects on soil evaporation, as well as incorrectly parameterized plant and soil traits. These processes should be prioritized to reduce model uncertainties in the water–energy–food nexus.

Examining the Contribution of the Observed Global Warming Trend to the California Droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 30th, 2014

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy se

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy season on record (1895–2014), while the 2012/13 season registered as the 45th warmest and 38th driest (Vose et al. 2014). The 2013 January–December calendar year was the driest on record (Water CA 2014). These consecutive below-normal seasons conspired with warm temperatures to reduce California’s snowpack to the second lowest level since 1960, when recording began, with snowpack at 24% of normal (Water CA 2014). Between January 2013 and January 2014, satellite observations documented dramatic snowpack-related land cover change (NASA Earth Observatory 2014): in 2014, the Cascade, Sierra Nevada, and Coastal ranges were almost completely devoid of snow. In February and March of 2014, air temperatures were extremely warm (NOAA NCDC 2014; HPRC 2014), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) observations indicated extreme or moderate hydrologic drought (USGS 2014) and high levels of vegetation stress (VegDRI 2014). The state declared a drought emergency (NIDIS 2014). While it is too soon to assess the full impact of the 2012/13 and 2013/14 California droughts, they seem likely to substantially impact the state’s ability to generate hydrologic power, support agriculture, reduce the risk of forest and bush fires, and protect fragile ecosystems (Huffington Post 2014). *Chapter 4, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9)

Executive Order N-10-19

State of California | April 29th, 2019

Executive Order N-4-23

State of California | March 10th, 2023