Toward a Vibrant, Prosperous, and Sustainable Fresno County: Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Midst of Rapid Change

Fresno County is located centrally within the State of California. The central portion of the county makes up part of the state’s breadbasket, the San Joaquin Valley, known for its vast agricultural productivity, whereas the Sierra Nevada Mountains make up the eastern portion of the county providing water from snowmelt and varied opportunities for recreation.  Fresno County recently began making a significant investment in its economic vitality and the well-being and quality of life of its residents through the San Joaquin Valley Blueprint. Aside the growing pressures and challenges that accompany further population growth and development, external pressures will also impinge on the county.

Climate change – one of these important additional pressures – will impact Fresno in a variety of ways, some potentially severe, with direct impacts on its people, its all-important agricultural sector (and related economic activity), its supporting infrastructure and services, as well as the natural environment on which much of the county’s economy, rural character, and quality of life directly depend. This report details current vulnerabilities to weather- and climate-related changes and extreme events in Fresno, and explores how climate change may exacerbate or change them in the decades ahead. The report draws on publicly available reports, plans, and data repositories available from local (municipal and county), state, federal and nongovernmental sources as well as on peer-reviewed research papers. For the social vulnerability assessment, original research was conducted to assess differential vulnerabilities among San Luis Obispo’s population. Other assessments of vulnerability rest on the critical assessment of current conditions as ascertained from the existing information.

This report provides a review of the region’s projected climate change and existing demographics and economic industries and infrastructure. Among the most critical additional stresses from climate warming are increased average seasonal temperatures; longer, more intense heat waves; changes in rainfall patterns and water availability (via Sierra snowmelt); and increases in wildfires. The changes could translate into major damage in terms of public and environmental health, and Fresno’s economy, e.g., the production of nut and fruit crops.

From the social vulnerability analysis conducted, a clear picture of differential social and economic vulnerabilities emerges characterized above all by the enormous dependence of the county’s economy and population on the highly climate-sensitive agricultural sector. These growing issues, while challenging, can be surmounted with timely and adequate planning and preparation. City and county governments, as well as private and civic sector actors, can integrate adaptation into their ongoing efforts to implement already existing plans, such as the Valley Blueprint, Fresno Green and other local and regional measures. Many of these social, economic, institutional, educational, and infrastructure measures can be implemented on regular maintenance, upgrading, planning, and budgeting cycles, and bring benefits to the county’s residents, particularly its disadvantaged groups, its quality of life and environment, its fiscal situation and its economy overall. Thus, developing adaptation plans and implement agreed-upon measures is directly in support of Fresno County achieving its vision of a vibrant, prosperous and sustainable future.