On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes

The global water cycle is expected to intensify under climate change and can be generally characterized by greater rainfall and surface evaporation in the future. However, the rate at which the globally averaged precipitation increases is highly variable among different climate models. In this paper, we relate the intermodel variability in global water cycle intensification to differences in model projections of heavy precipitation in tropical and some extratropical regions. We also find that models consistently experience a trade‐off between increasing heavy and decreasing light‐moderate precipitation: Models with larger future increases in heavy precipitation exhibit greater compensating declines in light‐moderate rainfall. Differences in heavy precipitation changes are also tied to model resolution. Our study helps to provide new insight on the factors shaping projections of future precipitation extremes, which have strong implications for water resources, natural hazard risks associated with flooding, and ecosystem stability.