Managing to End Groundwater Overdraft in California’s Central Valley with Climate Change

Several water management cases with climate change are modeled to assess the effects of ending long-term groundwater overdraft in the Central Valley using the California Value Integrated Network (CALVIN) model, a hydro-economic optimization model of California’s water system. CALVIN optimizes water management decision-making for the lowest net operating and water scarcity cost over an 82-year period of unimpaired inflows. Recent updates to the CALVIN model include, input hydrology, network representation, agricultural demand and shortage penalties, and hydropower improvements. Management cases evaluated include changes in outflow and inflow requirements for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), and prohibiting long-term groundwater overdraft. Cases were analyzed over an 82-year modified historical record with a warmer, drier climate, and compared to historical hydrology results. A modelled warmer, drier climate reduces average inflows overall by about 28% and shifts stream flows towards winter and away from spring. Results show large water scarcities south of the Delta without Delta exports, especially for agriculture. Allowing for increased water transfers, Delta exports, conjunctive use, and water recycling and desalination reduces the water supply effects of groundwater overdraft and climate change.