Considerations for Selecting Climate Projections for Water Resources, Planning, and Environmental Analyses

For over a century, Reclamation’s mission has focused on managing water resources in the Western United States. Water resources, planning, and environmental studies carried out to support Reclamation’s mission have routinely considered hydrologic variability, including variability of water supplies and demands from season to season and year to year. Because weather and climate are two of the primary drivers of water supply and demand, Reclamation studies have also routinely considered weather and climate variability.

The SECURE Water Act directs Reclamation to evaluate the risks and impacts of climate change in long-range planning and decision making (see Section 1.1. of the main report), including:

•Water resources and environmental analyses
•Planning studies
•Design and analysis of current and proposed infrastructure and operating plans

Considering climate change involves analyzing projected changes in weather and climate conditions as well as the effects of these changes on water supplies, demands, and management.  This document provides an overview of the primary considerations relevant to selecting climate projection information for use in a given water resources, planning, or environmental analysis.

Audience

For technical specialists involved in selecting and using climate projections for a given study—e.g., climatologist, hydrologists, and water resources engineers— this document provides a brief overview of the models and methods used to develop climate projections (Section 2.) and relevant considerations for selecting an appropriate climate projection dataset and set of climate projections to meet their specific study objectives (Section 3.). This document also provides a detailed summary of available climate projection datasets (Section 4.) and established methods for selecting climate projections for use in a detailed analysis (Section 5.).

For other study team members involved in interpreting and documenting the use of climate change information in a given study—e.g., planners, environmental specialists, and resource managers—this document provides an overview of how climate projections are developed (Section 2.) and the choices and considerations involved in selecting climate projections for analysis in the study (Section 3.).