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Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area

Clair Barnes, Theo Keeping, Gavin Madakumbura, John Abatzoglou, Park Williams, Amir AghaKhouchak, Izidine Pinto, Vikki Thompson, Robert Vautard, Seppe Lampe, Wim Thiery, Rosa Pietroiusti, Friederike Otto, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Nicole Lambrou, Edward Blakely, Yifang Zhu, Jing Li, Tarik Benmarhnia, Travis Longcore, Miriam Marlier, Emmanuel Raju, Nick Baumgart, Julie Arrighi | January 28th, 2025


 To determine the role of climate change in this observed trend we combine the observation-based estimates with climate models. Eight of the eleven models examined also show an increase in extreme January FWI, increasing our confidence that climate change is driving this trend. Combining models and observations, we find that human-induced warming from burning fossil fuels made the peak January FWI more intense, with an estimated 6% increase in intensity, and 35% more probable. 

Keywords

climate change, modeling, risk assessment, wildfire