Document Details

Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales

Ivana Cvijanovic, Amelie Simon, Xavier Levine, Rachel White, Pablo Ortega, Markus Donat, Donald D. Lucas, John C. H. Chiang, Anne Seidenglanz, Dragana Bojovic, Arthur Ramos Amaral, Vladimir Lapin, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Desislava Petrova | March 11th, 2025


Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote responses, with the opposite impacts reported. Here we present a multi-model analysis of the decadal climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss using state-of-the-art energy conserving methodologies to isolate the impacts of sea-ice decline. We observe weakening of the Aleutian Low and development of a geopotential ridge in the North Pacific, associated with drier winter conditions over the southwest United States. Over the Atlantic, a negative NAO-like response drives wetter winter conditions across the western Mediterranean. These decadal-scale impacts substantially differ from reported centennial-scale responses to Arctic sea-ice loss simulated using non-energy conserving methodologies. Factors such as the timescale of the response and methodologies used to isolate the impacts of disappearing sea-ice cover should be carefully considered when consolidating scientific understanding on the future impacts of changing Arctic.

Keywords

climate change, drought