Drought Attribution Studies and Water Resources Management

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | February 16th, 2023

Drought Contingency Planning (DCP) Negotiation #142, Attachment 1

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 30th, 2020

This white paper describes current understanding of how the Department of Water Resources (DWR) would account for and administer the Delta Conveyance Facility (DCF) Bene

This white paper describes current understanding of how the Department of Water Resources (DWR) would account for and administer the Delta Conveyance Facility (DCF) Benefits. DWR will include information regarding the accounting and administration of water attributable to DCF in relevant Notice(s) to State Water Project Contractors consistent with prior practice. No legally binding obligations are created by this white paper. This white paper may be updated from time to time by DWR, in consultation with the Public Water Agencies (PWAs), in response to factors including, but not limited to, changes in laws, regulations or permits applicable to DWR and/or the State Water Project (SWP). Capitalized terms not defined herein shall have the meanings ascribed to them in the DCF Agreement in Principle (AIP).

Drought impact on cropland use monitored with AVIRIS imagery in Central Valley, California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | November 19th, 2022

During 2012–2016 California experienced the longest and most severe drought in the last centuries. This water scarcity led to an increase in non-cultivated croplands du

During 2012–2016 California experienced the longest and most severe drought in the last centuries. This water scarcity led to an increase in non-cultivated croplands during this period. The objective of this study was to quantify agricultural trends in the Central Valley (California) at peak growth from 2013 to 2016 during the drought and in 2017–2018 post-drought. For this purpose, we analysed yearly official harvested area reported at county level for the main crops and compared them to visible-shortwave infrared (VSWIR) spectra acquired by the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging-Spectrometer (AVIRIS-classic) over 2334 km2 of the Central Valley each year. Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) was applied to AVIRIS data to estimate green vegetation (GV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) and soil fractions in crop fields each year. MESMA and crop reports (R2 = 0.9) showed that soil (i.e.; non-cultivated areas) increased during the summers of the drought; with the smallest GV area in 2015, the second year classified with exceptional drought in this period. According to MESMA, 34 % of the cropland was covered by GV in 2015, and 69.5·104 ha according to the crop reports. MESMA also registered the highest value of soil area in 2015 (48 %). The year with most cultivated area was 2017, the wettest year in the studied period, with 54 % of the croplands covered by GV and 75.2·104 ha. This study verified that the non-cultivated areas increased in the Central Valley during the exceptional drought period and validated the use of AVIRIS imagery to monitor broad-scale cropland use changes in future climatic extreme events.

Drought impacts to water footprints and virtual water transfers of the Central Valley of California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 23rd, 2017

Drought intensity and duration interact to magnify losses in primary productivity

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | October 16th, 2025

As droughts become longer and more intense, impacts on terrestrial primary productivity are expected to increase progressively. Yet, some ecosystems appear to acclimate t

As droughts become longer and more intense, impacts on terrestrial primary productivity are expected to increase progressively. Yet, some ecosystems appear to acclimate to multiyear drought, with constant or diminishing reductions in productivity as drought duration increases. We quantified the combined effects of drought duration and intensity on aboveground productivity in 74 grasslands and shrublands distributed globally. Ecosystem acclimation with multiyear drought was observed overall, except when droughts were extreme (i.e., ≤1-in-100-year likelihood of occurrence). Productivity losses after four consecutive years of extreme drought increased by ~2.5-fold compared with those of the first year. These results portend a foundational shift in ecosystem behavior if drought duration and intensity increase, from maintenance of reduced functioning over time to progressive and profound losses of productivity when droughts are extreme.

Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 20th, 2020

Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical ear

Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036–2065), 69% of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83% by late century (2070–2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P < 0.01) elevation dependence, with lower-elevation coastal areas most impacted by warming. Ancillary predictive information can only partially mitigate snow-based predictability losses to 65% of areas, underscoring the importance of declining future snowpack.

Drought Management and Climate Adaptation among Small, Self-Sufficient Water Systems in California

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

 Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. Thi

 Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. This study focuses on the 2012-2016 Drought in California, documenting how small self-sufficient drinking water systems were affected and challenged by, and responded to the extreme event. The majority of small, self-sufficient water systems in the state serve rural, low income communities, and many have low technical, managerial, and financial capacity compared to larger systems. This increases the risk that these drinking water systems will be disproportionately impacted by droughts or other disruptions. To assess the impact of drought on small water systems, we employed an iterative approach to gathering perspectives and experiences from drinking water system managers across the state. The goal of employing these iterative methods is to better understand the breadth and scope of impacts, responses, and barriers to dealing with the 2012- 2016 Drought. The first stage of the data collection involved interviewing managers of drinking water systems, which were transcribed and analyzed using semi-grounded theory methods. To cross-check and advance findings from interviews in additional locations, we conducted three small regional workshops and then a larger policy forum. Multiple data collection methods allowed us to gather insights about experiences from nearly 200 water managers. This project uses local knowledge to document the social dimensions within drinking water systems during the 2012-2016 Drought and expresses the value of local knowledge in reflecting on future drinking water system needs in response to extreme events.  We found that drinking water systems, despite size or government project water reliance, experienced a similar set of drought impact, response, and barrier categories (e.g., water quantity and water quality). However, within these categories, the types of impacts, responses, and barriers differed based on both system size and water source portfolio. Common disadvantages that hinder drought resilience, and thus climate adaptation, of small self-sufficient drinking water systems include: staff capacity; financial burden of revenue loss during drought compounded with increased need for staff time for additional reporting; customer awareness and outreach challenges; and consolidation. We found that consolidation is valuable but in many case needs more state support to implement and incentivize. From a long term perspective, the absence of expressed duty and lack of concern for risks of climate change among water managers indicates a major dearth in adaptation planning among these drinking water systems. Documentation of experiences from the 2012-2016 Drought can be used to inform future planning for droughts and more broadly climate change. 

Drought Management and Climate Adaptation of Small, Self-Sufficient Drinking Water Systems in California

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 15th, 2018

Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. This

Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. This study focuses on the 2012-2016 Drought in California, documenting how small self-sufficient drinking water systems were affected and challenged by, and responded to the extreme event.

Drought water right curtailment analysis for California’s Eel river

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | February 1st, 2018

Water users in California’s hybrid water rights system have different legal priorities to available surface water in times of water scarcity. A set of two linear progra

Water users in California’s hybrid water rights system have different legal priorities to available surface water in times of water scarcity. A set of two linear programming models was developed to determine curtailments of water use under drought conditions according to riparian and appropriative water right doctrines with spatially varying water availability and water rights within a basin. The models were implemented in spreadsheets and extended to estimate water right reliability and factors of safety in water rights administration. Alternate methods for calculating water use curtailments are discussed. Curtailments from the models are compared with actual water shortage notices issued by the state for the Eel River, California for June 30, 2014. Analyzing water use curtailments with an algorithm in spreadsheet software offers a mechanistic, transparent, accessible, and precise approach derived from legal doctrines to support water rights administration during drought.

Drought, agricultural adaptation, and sociopolitical collapse in the Maya Lowlands

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | May 5th, 2015

Paleoclimate records indicate a series of severe droughts was associated with societal collapse of the Classic Maya during the Terminal Classic period (∼800–9

Paleoclimate records indicate a series of severe droughts was associated with societal collapse of the Classic Maya during the Terminal Classic period (∼800–950 C.E.). Evidence for drought largely derives from the drier, less populated northern Maya Lowlands but does not explain more pronounced and earlier societal disruption in the relatively humid southern Maya Lowlands. Here we apply hydrogen and carbon isotope compositions of plant wax lipids in two lake sediment cores to assess changes in water availability and land use in both the northern and southern Maya lowlands. We show that relatively more intense drying occurred in the southern lowlands than in the northern lowlands during the Terminal Classic period, consistent with earlier and more persistent societal decline in the south. Our results also indicate a period of substantial drying in the southern Maya Lowlands from ∼200 C.E. to 500 C.E., during the Terminal Preclassic and Early Classic periods. Plant wax carbon isotope records indicate a decline in C4 plants in both lake catchments during the Early Classic period, interpreted to reflect a shift from extensive agriculture to intensive, water- conservative maize cultivation that was motivated by a drying climate. Our results imply that agricultural adaptations developed in response to earlier droughts were initially successful, but failed under the more severe droughts of the Terminal Classic period.