The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin

Utah State University | August 31st, 2020

Long-range planning of the water supply provided by the Colorado River requires realistic assessments of the impact of a continuation of the current drought that began in

Long-range planning of the water supply provided by the Colorado River requires realistic assessments of the impact of a continuation of the current drought that began in 2000, the impact of potentially extreme future droughts, and the long-term and progressive decline in watershed runoff that is caused by a warming climate. Water-supply managers want to know the maximum plausible stresses to water users so that plans for conservation, reservoir operations, and/or construction of new infrastructure can be properly developed. River managers want to know the implications of various water-supply plans on the flow-regime and water-quality characteristics of the Colorado River and its headwater branches in order to develop natural resource management plans that maintain desired attributes of river ecosystems. Although it is relatively easy to qualitatively describe scenarios of drought or water abundance, it is much harder to quantitatively estimate likely future conditions. In the white paper, we developed methods to make such quantitative estimates, thereby providing an approximate answer to the question, “How dry might future conditions in the Colorado River watershed become?” It is difficult to assign a probability to this assessment, and our analysis is guided by the principle that what has happened in the past might happen again in the future.

The Future of Agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | February 9th, 2023

The Future of California’s Water-Energy-Climate Nexus

Pacific Institute | September 9th, 2021

Water and energy are inextricably linked in California and, as one resource faces constraints or challenges, so does the other. With the state looking to both reach its c

Water and energy are inextricably linked in California and, as one resource faces constraints or challenges, so does the other. With the state looking to both reach its climate change goals and decarbonize its economy through a transition to 100 percent clean energy, water will play an integral role. Water is a key input for energy production, and energy is integral to all aspects of water management and use in California—including collection, treatment, heating, and wastewater management. Prior studies have estimated that about 20 percent of California’s total statewide electricity use, a third of non-power plant natural gas consumption, and 88 billion gallons of diesel consumption are related to water—from collection and treatment to use and wastewater management—with a large share associated with heating water. These interdependencies between water and energy supplies are commonly referred to as the water-energy nexus.

The Future of Groundwater in California: Lessons in Sustainable Management from Across the West

Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) | January 31st, 2018

The 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) created, for the first time and on an unprecedented scale, a mandate to change how groundwater is managed statewide

The 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) created, for the first time and on an unprecedented scale, a mandate to change how groundwater is managed statewide in California. While enacting SGMA was a tremendous step forward, communities and water districts now face the considerable challenge of creating successful groundwater management programs. This report is aimed at helping California’s water managers, public water agencies, county commissioners, city planners, and others better understand the suite of tools and approaches that can be used to enhance the sustainable management of groundwater. Specifically, we consider four categories of management tools—regulatory, incentive-based, agency supply augmentation and protection, and education and outreach—to evaluate how these tools are being used to address water quantity, water quality, and surface water and groundwater interaction challenges. We present nine comprehensive case studies of groundwater management across the Western United States to highlight how these tools have been used to address those challenges. The case studies represent basins that have a range of water uses— agricultural, municipal, or mixed water use, as well as basins with diverse hydrologic, political and social settings. Effective groundwater management takes time and requires significant resources and commitment on the part of water managers and communities. Each groundwater management program presented in this report relies upon a variety of interdependent tools and actions to meet management goals. The case studies illustrate the importance of building trust, having sufficient data, using a portfolio of management approaches, assuring performance, and access to funding. Given the similarities between the goals of SGMA and those described in the case studies, these themes emerge as crucial to the successful implementation of California’s landmark groundwater legislation.  

The futures market for water rights trading in California: Analyzing the emergence of a controversial experiment

Environmental Challenges (Elsevier) | March 29th, 2025

This paper presents a qualitative case study of the world's first water futures contract in California, a market that enables hedgers and speculators to bet on water pric

This paper presents a qualitative case study of the world's first water futures contract in California, a market that enables hedgers and speculators to bet on water prices. It is attempted to explain which factors shaped the emergence of the unique market by applying the Political Process Inherent Dynamics Approach (PIDA), an analytical framework from the field of environmental policy analysis. In addition, the topics of heated debate that have surrounded the new market are summarized and contextualized. To obtain the relevant information, expert interviews, complemented by online sources, were subjected to a Qualitative Content Analysis. It is concluded that the launch of the contract is an extreme case of private business actors shaping water governance, made possible by a longstanding market philosophy in the US, that gives leeway for actors of financialization to create facts. In the political-administrative realm, a lack of accountability and will to interfere seems to prevail. However, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and other actors have led efforts to abolish the market, criticizing water futures in ways that resonate with broader debates about privatization and food futures.

The Geysers of California

Scientific American | September 28th, 1867

The Geysers of California are situated in lateral ravines of Pluton River, a tributary of Russian River. In gaining a clear idea of the California Geysers, it will be n

The Geysers of California are situated in lateral ravines of Pluton River, a tributary of Russian River. In gaining a clear idea of the California Geysers, it will be necessary to forget the geysers of Iceland, with their columns of water and capitals of cloud. Upon approaching those upon Pluton River, your first impression is that there has been a great conflagration, and that the fire engines are blowing off steam preparatory to going home. The gorge is lined with masses of smouldering ashes, from which hot steam is being drifted, by the wind, and, in some places, you can imagine that the embers are ready to relight. In the bottom of the canon, turbid and blackened water, from which vapor slowly lifts, is running among the discolored rocks. Here and there, escaping steam hisses, and, in some places, roars like the "exhaust " of an engine.

The global threat of drying lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections

United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification | December 9th, 2024

Most of the world’s land—more than three-quarters—has become permanently dryer in recent decades. A combined global area equal to half the size of Australia has tra

Most of the world’s land—more than three-quarters—has become permanently dryer in recent decades. A combined global area equal to half the size of Australia has transformed from humid lands to drylands with less rain for crops, pastures, nature and people. These stark statistics are among the many grim revelations from new analyses revealed in this groundbreaking report. For the first time, scientists within UNCCD Science-Policy Interface have clearly documented current and future drying trends and impacts that reveal a global, existential peril previously shrouded by a fog of scientific uncertainty. Its name is aridity—the climatic and enduring condition of too little life-supporting moisture—and its effects threaten the lives and livelihoods of billions across almost every region of the globe.

The Governance Gap: Climate Adaptation and Sea-Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | June 27th, 2017

This report summarizes the results of an extensive study of governance for climate adaptation and sea-level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area (SF Bay Area), wh

This report summarizes the results of an extensive study of governance for climate adaptation and sea-level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area (SF Bay Area), where the concept of sea-level rise adaptation also includes coastal flooding from high tides and extreme storm events. We focus on the “governance gap” that exists between the problem of sea-level rise and the implementation of adaptation solutions that increase resilience. We take a broad view on governance as the set of institutional arrangements, governmental authorities, and public stakeholders who collectively plan and implement adaptation activities, including identifying funding strategies and the agreeing on the information basis for decision making. While most stakeholders recognize the risk of sea-level rise and other climate impacts, and have good ideas about potential on-the-ground solutions, realizing these solutions requires overcoming a series of governance challenges. All of these governance challenges are barriers to stakeholder cooperation at multiple geographic levels—local, regional, state, and federal. There are many different governmental and non-governmental actors facing the same sea-level rise problem (in “the same boat”), and coordination is required to have them “row in the same direction.” The imperative for multi-level cooperation becomes more poignant as the science on sea-level rise continues to advance, and considers the possibilities of higher average levels of sea-level rise and rapid and extreme sea-level rise due to accelerated melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. This report summarizes the major challenges, identifies the menu of possible solutions, and develops some specific recommendations on the next steps needed to remedy the governance gap and enhance the adaptive capacity of the SF Bay Area. The governance analysis is a component of the larger UC Davis/Berkeley research project called Resilience of Infrastructure as Seas Rise (RISeR), See Figure 1, which is funded by National Science Foundation to analyze the interactions between sea-level rise adaptation, transportation infrastructure, and governance in the SF Bay Area. The governance analysis was conducted in Fall 2016-Winter 2017, and is based on a qualitative case study that combines in-person interviews, focus groups, document analysis, and content analysis of interview responses. The draft report was made available to study participants in Spring 2017, along with two webinars for receiving feedback. Participants included leaders of governmental and non-governmental organizations across the SF Bay Area region. The research focused mainly on sea-level rise and coastal flooding, but also linked to broader issues of climate adaptation when appropriate. Focus groups deliberated on the best possible solutions to solving the identified governance challenges. Respondents identified the overarching governance challenge as the imperative for multi-level cooperation among all sea-level rise adaptation stakeholders. Sea-level rise adaptation entails interdependencies, where the vulnerabilities and adaptation decisions of local actors impose regional costs and benefits. While regional cooperation is beginning to emerge, most stakeholders see a critical need for shared learning, coordination and planning. The recommendations provided in this report are intended to accelerate the processes of learning and cooperation needed to address the increasingly urgent problem of sea-level rise and coastal flooding.

The Great California Delta Trail: Blueprint Report for Contra Costa and Solano Counties

Delta Protection Commission (DPC) | September 1st, 2009

The Delta Trail concept was born out of Senate Bill 1556, created by Senator Torlakson and signed by Governor Schwarzenegger to facilitate the planning and feasibility pr

The Delta Trail concept was born out of Senate Bill 1556, created by Senator Torlakson and signed by Governor Schwarzenegger to facilitate the planning and feasibility process for the establishment of the Delta Trail in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The bill requires the Delta Protection Commission (DPC) to facilitate the trail’s planning and feasibility process.  This Blueprint Report reflects the outreach, feasibility, and planning process developed for the Delta Trail in Solano and Contra Costa counties through work with a broad cross-section of local agencies and stakeholders. It provides a template to be considered for the trail planning process in the other three Delta counties – Sacramento, San Joaquin and Yolo. The Blueprint Report establishes a specific vision, goals and policies for the Delta Trail. It provides a review of the Solano and Contra Costa Counties settings, a summary of related adopted policies, a review of regional trail technical issues and best practices, and an action plan to implement the vision and goals, recommended outreach and engagement strategies, a description of potential trail concepts, and information on funding opportunities.

The Great Salt Lake Strategic Plan

Office of the Great Salt Lake Commissioner | January 15th, 2024

This document represents an initial strategy to more effectively protect the Great Salt Lake, while balancing the other ecological, economic, and societal interests surro

This document represents an initial strategy to more effectively protect the Great Salt Lake, while balancing the other ecological, economic, and societal interests surrounding the lake. This is no small task, particularly in light of continued economic growth, sustained drought, and higher temperatures, which threaten to increase demand and shrink available water supplies even further.